tipo de cambio

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vivaperusurf
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tipo de cambio

Postby vivaperusurf » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:19 pm

im no economist. it keeps going up. when are we gonna see 3.50 to the dollar :mrgreen: any insight on this?


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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby Sergio Bernales » Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:49 am

My guess is you'll see that exchange rate in the next few months. There's no good economic news on the horizon, just tumbling commodity prices, which are Peru's main source of foreign exchange, so there's nothing that's going to push the sol in the other direction. Plus markets always overshoot, so there is a good chance it could fall to as low as between 3.75-4.00 soles per dollar, but presuming there is no great political instability in the next year or so, it will probably stabilise at around 3.5 to the dollar. Still, with everything that's happening in the world at the moment, expect lots of surprises, mostly unpleasant.

Despite the growth in other sectors of the economy and exciting trade deals with Europe and the Pacific Alliance, Peru's economy still remains too dependent on things you dig out of the ground and sell to foreigners.

https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/per/

This old report from 2011 gives an idea of just how dependent Peru is on mining, particularly metals.

https://emergingmarketmusings.wordpress ... coattails/
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby lauramarinaruiz » Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:03 am

Hi, I would like to know if, in the case you have a US account and you open an account in Peru, you can make transfers from the account without problem. Also, if you can use the ATMs to obtain dollars from you US account.
And if I buy a real estate in Peru, can I just transfer the amount to pay for that from a US account? In some countries, like Colombia, that is not easy at all.
Thank you
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby Alpineprince » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:06 pm

Yes and yes to both you questions. In other news the Sol strengthened today by the largest amount I have ever seen in one day. I saw it here on Expat and thought it was a mistake, after confirming it on XE I immediately pulled dollars out of the bank and bought Sol's on the street, basically cutting the drop in the Dollar by 1/2. Will need to pay lot's of bills next week and do not want further surprises.
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby ironchefchris » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:41 pm

According to XE it's shot back up to around just under 3.30, but I don't know if that's reflected on the street yet.
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby mammamia » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:17 pm

Alpineprince wrote:Yes and yes to both you questions. In other news the Sol strengthened today by the largest amount I have ever seen in one day. I saw it here on Expat and thought it was a mistake, after confirming it on XE I immediately pulled dollars out of the bank and bought Sol's on the street, basically cutting the drop in the Dollar by 1/2. Will need to pay lot's of bills next week and do not want further surprises.


I'm taking no more risks and convert whatever I earn in soles into dollars almost on a daily basis. And doing so saved me a lot of money in the last 18 months. Doesn't look like the trend is going to change in the nearer future.
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby fanning » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:56 pm

Yesterday we changed in the street at 3.300, but it seems the sol got back some strength on Friday.
Surely on Monday when it is the end of the month ( and companies have to pay the salaries) the dollar will be 'low'.
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby vivaperusurf » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:48 am

I was sort of joking about 3.50 but after seeing 3.30 for reelz im jaw dropping at four.:-):-):-):-):-):-)

I heard it was all because of chickens and china. Wzit i already survive on chaufa when not fishing.

Thanks china.

You can make transfers. Depends on what you consider a "problem" to be.

Yes i always take out dollars as my bank charges a conversion fee. Also for what it is worth i have gotten fake soles from atms before but never fake dollars. Note when going to cambistas always make note of the sn of the dollars before.:-)with smartphones now it is someasy to just snap a shot of the sn. They switch reals for fakes so quick and try to stick you with the fakes. Watch out. Fucking sleezy cambistas. Excuseme if you are one.
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby Sergio Bernales » Thu Sep 10, 2015 10:33 am

mammamia wrote:
Alpineprince wrote:Yes and yes to both you questions. In other news the Sol strengthened today by the largest amount I have ever seen in one day. I saw it here on Expat and thought it was a mistake, after confirming it on XE I immediately pulled dollars out of the bank and bought Sol's on the street, basically cutting the drop in the Dollar by 1/2. Will need to pay lot's of bills next week and do not want further surprises.


I'm taking no more risks and convert whatever I earn in soles into dollars almost on a daily basis. And doing so saved me a lot of money in the last 18 months. Doesn't look like the trend is going to change in the nearer future.


That makes sense to me. There could well be small rallies now and again in the sol over the next few months, but I'd be surprised if they lead to anything. My bet would be to buy dollars every time the sol strengthens, as in the medium term, things don't look too promising, especially if the Fed is going to raise interest rates at some point over the next few months.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/usd/2 ... ntly-34324
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby Sergio Bernales » Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:36 pm

Okay, so 3.4 PEN to the dollar's looking close - it's been bumping around between 3.37 and 3.38 recently - perhaps 3.5 by Christmas? Or some time in spring?

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDPEN:CUR

And Sterling is hovering around 5.09 to 5.11 - this may look high by recent standards, but go back further to before the economic crisis and Sterling was around 6 soles to the pound. Remember, these are the days before houses prices tripled, two bedroom in apartment in Miraflores for $60,000, so no wonder people used to say Peru was cheap.
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby sbaustin » Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:47 pm

We changed some money at the casa de cambio by my office. It was 3.372 per dollar...
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby sbaustin » Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:06 am

And today we got 3.41 in bcp.
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby Sergio Bernales » Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:53 pm

Okay, the sol is hitting 3.45 to the dollar. Looks like 3.5 is in sight. My thought is maybe it should start to stabilise around now that there has been an interest rate hike in the US, but with all the instability in the world economy, we might be looking at 3.60 or 3.70... good for US tourists and those whose income is dollars.
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby Alpineprince » Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:35 am

Sergio Bernales wrote:Okay, the sol is hitting 3.45 to the dollar. Looks like 3.5 is in sight. My thought is maybe it should start to stabilise around now that there has been an interest rate hike in the US, but with all the instability in the world economy, we might be looking at 3.60 or 3.70... good for US tourists and those whose income is dollars.

Interest rate hikes only make the Dollar stronger,not weaker. The real reason for Dollar strength is the lower price of oil. The lower oil goes, the higher the Dollar. :P
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby Sergio Bernales » Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:08 pm

Alpineprince wrote:
Sergio Bernales wrote:Okay, the sol is hitting 3.45 to the dollar. Looks like 3.5 is in sight. My thought is maybe it should start to stabilise around now that there has been an interest rate hike in the US, but with all the instability in the world economy, we might be looking at 3.60 or 3.70... good for US tourists and those whose income is dollars.

Interest rate hikes only make the Dollar stronger,not weaker. The real reason for Dollar strength is the lower price of oil. The lower oil goes, the higher the Dollar. :P


Well, of course it's true that higher interest rate usually support a currency or can push its exchange rate higher, but market sentiment often has a much bigger effect. I'd have thought the ending of quantitative easing in late 2014 was probably the single biggest factors in the dollar's rise. If you chart the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies from the Fed announcement, the dollar's rise pretty much starts then. In the US, the recent interest rate rise was expected, so the dollar had already risen substantially. Its rise since interest rates went up hasn't been particularly impressive.

http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/ ... asing-tape

http://www.jdavidstein.com/currency-exchange.html

http://money.cnn.com/2014/09/29/investi ... year-high/

If the market expects another rise in US interest rates, then the dollar will start to rise long before interest rates do, as long as investors expect the economy to grow strongly, or if they expect the rest of the world to do even worse than the States. This is another factor in dollar strength, turbulence in the world economy. As the world reserve currency, the dollar is a safe haven for difficult times. The eurozone is fragile, China is in trouble, many other emerging economies, like Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, are in trouble. So naturally investors looks for a safe place to park their money, the US, which in turn pushes up the currency.

As for the low price of oil making the dollar stronger, it can do, but the relationship is no longer causal. In effect, what happened in the past is the low price of oil made gasoline cheaper for US consumers and businesses that use a lot of fuel, such as transport, so this gave consumers more disposable income to spend on other goods and services which would then help the economy, while it also created savings for businesses that used lots of fuel, meaning they could give higher payouts to investors, or invest more. The US also imported lots of its oil, a low oil price meant spending a lot less on imports and so a virtuous circle.

However, recently there's a lot of evidence that after the financial crisis and the boom in shale oil production, the persistent low oil price could potentially seriously damage the US economy, as large chunks of US manufacturing is now involved in the oil industry. Moreover, many big banks have lent tens of billions to the industry and as so much money has been invested by business that the effect on their balance sheets could infect other areas of activity. Also as America is now a large producer of oil, the benefits of a lower price are less than for those countries that are big importers of oil, such as India, which has greatly benefited from the recent price falls. The articles below sum it up really well.

"At the start of 2015, JPMorgan, a bank, reckoned that cheap oil would boost GDP by around 0.7%—a boost to consumers’ purchasing power equivalent to 1% of GDP, offset by a smaller drag from weaker oil-industry investment. It now reckons the outcome was between a contraction of 0.3% and a boost of a measly 0.1%. Consumers may have saved more of the windfall than had seemed likely and the share of oil-related capital spending in total business investment in America, which had steadily risen for years, has fallen by half."

"As prices have tumbled, so has investment. Projects worth $380 billion have been put on hold. In America spending on fixed assets in the oil industry has fallen by half from its peak. The poison has spread: the purchasing managers’ index for December, of 48.2, registered an accelerating contraction across the whole of American manufacturing."

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/2 ... raid-cheap

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/ ... bal-growth
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby asgp » Thu Jan 28, 2016 11:45 am

I've heard many economists on the radio and the other media... The exchange rate would get as high as 3.7 this year... :roll: :shock: :shock: :shock:
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby sbaustin » Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:56 am

This week Gestion mentioned 3.6 by June. Seems to be trending up, question is how long and when to convert to soles to ride it back down?
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby Sergio Bernales » Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:14 pm

sbaustin wrote:This week Gestion mentioned 3.6 by June. Seems to be trending up, question is how long and when to convert to soles to ride it back down?


I'd say, ask again in five years. There's nothing going on in Peru's economy that's going to boost the exchange rate. You might see the odd small rally, but there's nothing substantial happening in the short term. The bulk of Peru's export earnings are from the mining sector, which has seen prices slump and they're going to stay that way for a long time. Just look at the trading performances of Glencore or Anglo American and you'll get an idea of how bad things are. In general, the outlook for the US is relatively benign, although a political upset rather than an economic one could be the biggest risk to the dollar - think about possible damage from more political brinkmanship over the budget sequestration or even a President Trump. So if you fancy taking a bet on the FX markets, you should be thinking in terms of years here if you want to buy soles with the expectation the dollar is going to fall. For the next few years, the only way is up for the dollar. At best, you could hope for stability between PEN and USD somewhere between 3.5 and 4.0.
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby Polaron » Fri Mar 11, 2016 5:31 pm

Within the last week the dollar has been crashing against the Nuevo sol, losing about 17 centimos per dollar. Welcome to the rollercoaster. I wonder what the prospects will be a week from now a month from now etc. Does anyone care to place a bet for bragging rights?
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby Sergio Bernales » Sun Mar 13, 2016 11:24 am

My guess is the sol's strength is probably temporary, but it could last for a few months and it may rise further. Prices for those commodities that Peru exports have jumped recently, which means there could be some respite for the Peruvian economy and a jump in confidence. The reason is China has announced another big stimulus to its economy, which has been flat-lining recently, which means investing in infrastructure, which means buildings, roads and railways and so there'll be big demand for products like copper and iron ore, which are Peru's biggest export earners. However, if the stimulus proves short-lived and demand doesn't pick up thereafter, either from China or the rest of the world, then commodity prices will probably fall again, leading to another drop in the sol.

Short term, I'd expect the exchange rates to jump around, a rollercoaster as Polaron puts it. So trying to guess where the exchange rate is going to be next month is bit like casino economics. I've no idea. There's a good chance the sol could rise further, but then market sentiment could quickly turn against it and we see it fall back to 3.50 or even 3.60.

My guess is medium term, I'd expect the sol to fall again, or perhaps stay in a trading range of 2.40-2.60. The dollar should rise over the medium term. Economically the United States is doing okay, but there are political risks. A Trump presidency could unnerve the markets, as could a Ted Cruz presidency, who wants to return to dollar to the gold standard.

Coincidentally, in the last few years, a lot of new production from Peruvian mines, although it happened at the same time as the prices for commodities crashed, so Peru is actually exporting a lot more than it was a few years ago, but actually earning less money for it.

These articles below might shed more light on the issues than I can.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ver-shorts

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielpa ... e8f1de5c9c

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... orst-idea/
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Re: tipo de cambio

Postby hatchepsut » Thu May 12, 2016 5:15 pm

Your money will be less worth after the elections.
As usual prices will go up.
I am thinking of selling my house but my gf told me to wait till after the elections. She thinks that I will get more money for it.

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