Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Answers to your qestions about moving to, and living in, Peru,
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:01 pm

SilverbackPeru wrote:Well most of your northern England cities aren't pretty but the poor parts of them are still a world apart from the worst areas of Lima. The tram system in Manchester was extremely good.

Limas transport and roads are terrible.


let me put this that way: in my country if municipality leaves holes in the road unfixed and you drive there e.g. by night and fall into one of these holes and something breaks in your car, you can sue the local authorities to leaving the road unsecured. Do you think this is something bad?

Try to sue the municpality in Surco for one of these holes... how many shock absorbers and tires are damaged in Lima just due to bad roads? You pay for that, coz your car deteriorates quickly. They charge you car taxes, fuel taxes and so on in Peru, but the revenue is not used to fix the infrastructure. It just does not sum up.


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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:03 pm

and yes: before anyone complains that I complain: no I don't... you can live in South America and still have some livable life quality. e.g. Uruguay, Chile... and the rules are still somehow relaxed!
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:19 pm

Another example from a peruvian friend this week: his baby was born with 7 months, now she needs to be in the incubator for at least 4 more weeks. The hospital just told him: you have to pay daily rent for the incubator OR we switch it off.... THIS IS PERU. got it?
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby Alan » Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:50 am

mrsteak wrote:Another example from a peruvian friend this week: his baby was born with 7 months, now she needs to be in the incubator for at least 4 more weeks. The hospital just told him: you have to pay daily rent for the incubator OR we switch it off.... THIS IS PERU. got it?


A terrible story. Bloody cold hearted.

But how about this: A friend´s wife had twins born prematurely in Lima and they thought the insurance would cover everything (they had a pretty good private health plan). Not so: they were told that since the babies were born before term, the insurance wouldn´t kick in until the 9th month. Pretty cold and life threatening, too.. but in this case the insurance company was a Spanish multinational.

No doubt the health system in Peru needs MAJOR work... but, to be fair, you can find crappy, unfair health care systems all over the world, just as you can find potholes in the streets and goverments with impunity.

Maybe two good questions to ask are:

Are things getting any better in Peru? What is the prognosis for the next 30 years?
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:50 pm

Alan wrote:Maybe two good questions to ask are:

Are things getting any better in Peru? What is the prognosis for the next 30 years?


nope! it is getting down. It is like a ship sinking... first the tail goes a bit up and you think "hurra it goes up"... but then it sinks quickly

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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:58 pm

However, in favor of Peru is that it is yet the 3rd worst country in SA :P

I think Bolivia is worse. Also Venezuela should be considered worse - however it is a transient problem in VE while Peru+Bolivia are permanently in trouble forever.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby SilverbackPeru » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:12 pm

Alan wrote:
mrsteak wrote:Another example from a peruvian friend this week: his baby was born with 7 months, now she needs to be in the incubator for at least 4 more weeks. The hospital just told him: you have to pay daily rent for the incubator OR we switch it off.... THIS IS PERU. got it?


A terrible story. Bloody cold hearted.

But how about this: A friend´s wife had twins born prematurely in Lima and they thought the insurance would cover everything (they had a pretty good private health plan). Not so: they were told that since the babies were born before term, the insurance wouldn´t kick in until the 9th month. Pretty cold and life threatening, too.. but in this case the insurance company was a Spanish multinational.

No doubt the health system in Peru needs MAJOR work... but, to be fair, you can find crappy, unfair health care systems all over the world, just as you can find potholes in the streets and goverments with impunity.

Maybe two good questions to ask are:

Are things getting any better in Peru? What is the prognosis for the next 30 years?


Things like National Health Services are greatly appreciated when you are from a country that provides this service and even more appreciated when you go to somewhere that doesn't have this service. I can't explain the joy of being able to walk into a doctors or hospital and not pay anything other than for medication from a pharmacy which are kept at low prices of a few quid tops.

I had my appentix in Lima and had five days in hospital due to infection. Total cost $22'000 which was covered mostly by my wifes work health insurance except for the smalk fee you have to pay here which in this case was $3000, but that's almost a years wage for me in Peru. God only knows what would have happened if i didn't have insurance.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:19 pm

So silent here..... maybe you are reading the news about the left wing asking PPK to renounce? Would it call Peru a stable country? :?:

If the gov is overthrown maybe people demand a socialist government and it turns to be like Venezuela in few years???
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby eugene.in.peru » Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:14 pm

According to this article http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style ... 88896.html , Peru is not the worst country to live in. Worst is Iraq. So we all can relax now, and enjoy the Peruvian life.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:50 pm

eugene.in.peru wrote:According to this article http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style ... 88896.html , Peru is not the worst country to live in. Worst is Iraq. So we all can relax now, and enjoy the Peruvian life.


It is saying here "one of the worst", not THE worst. Peru is certainly in the lowest 25 percent.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby DC_20833 » Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:45 am

I came to Peru on November 6, 2006, and I have had my moments. Real Estate prices are dropping because of the corruption. Simply put foreign investors are becoming less interested in Peru because of the corruption. The traffic is terrible I think we can all agree on that; however, I have the luxury of working from home so I simply do not travel during high traffic periods. However, I do admit that the drivers here simply do not have ANY respect for the laws and do not have common decency. There needs to be more enforcement of the laws here by the Police but the problem is the person either bribes the police officer or simply does not pay the fine. I called a taxi driver for a special trip and he admitted he did not even have a valid driver's license. Some Peruvians simply do not respect the laws of their own country. Sad but true.

About 4 years ago I thought about leaving but I stayed. Why? First of all, I had been dating for five years a Peruvian woman and she simply disappeared in reality what had happened is her family had checked her into rehab for alcohol and didn't tell me because they blamed me for her drinking. She got out of Rehab and was doing really well, however, the rehab center did not talk to her about what kind of support she needed after leaving rehab so she has relapsed again and we are now married. I found a rehab center that is very serious and she is doing well. There will be a lot of support after she leaves rehab this time.

I also enjoy my church here. It is a great group of people who truly love the lord and we have an excellent Pastor. He is just 28 years old but has been preaching since he was 19. He is very much into what he does and he is truly called by God to do what he is doing. He also has a lovely wife that sings and I have known for over 6 years. I have a lot of friends here that are true friends. When I was in the hospital a few weeks ago I posted on my Facebook page that I was in the hospital in room number whatever and asked people to visit me and ALL OF MY FRIENDS CAME AND VISITED ME.

Regarding the medical care here it depends on several factors. First, if you have the money or insurance you can get excellent care at the private clinics try Clinica San Felipe out. Anglo Americana is good also. The tricky part is the doctor, many Peruvian doctors are into money and I avoid those doctors. My doctor who could easily have his office full of patients spends 3 days a week at a public called Hospital Cayetano Heredia in San Martín de Porres and he earns less than a thousand dollars a month at that hospital. He told me the Bible commands us to take care of the sick and poor and this is his way of obeying what God has us to do. He is very accessible he keeps his cell phone on until 9 p.m. every night. When I was in Clinica San Felipe I had a blood clot and he was able to dissolve it in 2 days. He also works with the Peruvian insurance companies. I pay s/. 95 for a consultation.

Even in the hospitals for the poor, you see good medicine but the doctors get frustrated because the families cannot afford to have the tests run, medications, and other stuff. I donated blood at Hospital Cayetano Heredia yesterday and was shocked at how clean and professional the Blood Bank is. There is a severe shortage of blood in Peru. However, they were very safe about taking the blood. All of the needles were taken out of new packets, they wore gloves, and the donation area was very clean. The Blood Bank was very crowded, people who were donating blood for their family members had to wait four hours to donate and people who just donating blood to anybody (they call it voluntary) would have to wait 30 minutes. I waited 5 minutes. When the donation was complete they gave me a bottle of Gatorade and crackers which the lady who worked in the Blood Bank had to buy from her own pocket. She was ashamed to tell me and when I gave her the money she cried. This was the 142nd time I have donated blood and I donate blood every 3 months.

This country has its challenges I admit that but I enjoy helping the poor out. The poor here need help but I am careful. There is an organization here called Aldeas Infatales SOS they do a terrific job here in Peru. I truly believe that God put in Peru for a reason. I have my days and I wish could leave but I always obey God so I will take my last breath here in Peru, hopefully, many years from now. Now here is my biggest regret I have not learned Spanish I went to El Sol and after living here for 11 years I will have to start at the lowest level. I focused too much on other things but now I am serious about learning Spanish.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:34 pm

DC_20833 wrote:I came to Peru on November 6, 2006, and I have had my moments. Real Estate prices are dropping because of the corruption. Simply put foreign investors are becoming less interested in Peru because of the corruption.


I'm sure real estate will be much cheaper in the next years. Current prices are just scam, taking into account the quality of construction. You can buy new apartment on Spanish coast for less than 50.000€. You can buy a complete home from 90.000€ in Spain. Why pay 300.000 or more in Peru? Benefit? Sense?!
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby eugene.in.peru » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:03 am

mrsteak wrote:
DC_20833 wrote:I came to Peru on November 6, 2006, and I have had my moments. Real Estate prices are dropping because of the corruption. Simply put foreign investors are becoming less interested in Peru because of the corruption.


I'm sure real estate will be much cheaper in the next years. Current prices are just scam, taking into account the quality of construction. You can buy new apartment on Spanish coast for less than 50.000€. You can buy a complete home from 90.000€ in Spain. Why pay 300.000 or more in Peru? Benefit? Sense?!


if anybody been following the bitcoin hype, one can draw a parallel. With both RE prices in Lima and bitcoin the price is simply what we all agree is the price is. In both there are people with some lots of $$$ that they've gained not so legally, and would otherwise risk losing to Government. Instead of losing it completely why not just pour it bitcoin, or in Real Estate? So I don't think real estate prices in Lima will go down drastically. Is it overpriced? Probably not, as price is what people are willing to pay not what it really costs to build / etc. Is it a good value - definitely no, as I would much rather own house in spain.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:13 pm

eugene.in.peru wrote:if anybody been following the bitcoin hype, one can draw a parallel. With both RE prices in Lima and bitcoin the price is simply what we all agree is the price is. In both there are people with some lots of $$$ that they've gained not so legally, and would otherwise risk losing to Government.


LOL... believe me there is absolutely no parallel between BTC and RE in Lima. BTC = global market. It is not a physical good. Real estate in Lima: physical goods backed in huge portion by overpriced mortgages from Peruvian banks. You won't be buying bitcoins with a mortgage. Not really. The price of RE in Lima is basically what peruvian delincuent banks are willing to finance. This defines the RE prices, not really a physical demand. Same happened in Spain, where people were just buying 2-3-4 houses JUST BECAUSE banks were giving them the mortgage. There was no demand to build so much RE. Go to Spain and see yourself, most of the RE from 2002-2008 is still empty and people are dying from the mortgages. Nobody lives there.

The only coincidence between BTC and RE in Lima is that both are a bubble, but for totally different reasons. Virtually all countries had their bubble already and these bubbles have bursted everywhere. Peru will be no exception. It is just retarded in time, like it is in many aspects. It is behind US and EU by around 10-15 years with respect to RE bubble.

If you buy RE with dirty money, SUNAT will find you. They cross check RE registry with your RUC. In contrary, peruvians who want to wash their dirty money, bring the money out of country.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby Alan » Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:33 pm

mrsteak wrote:
eugene.in.peru wrote:if anybody been following the bitcoin hype, one can draw a parallel. With both RE prices in Lima and bitcoin the price is simply what we all agree is the price is. In both there are people with some lots of $$$ that they've gained not so legally, and would otherwise risk losing to Government.


LOL... believe me there is absolutely no parallel between BTC and RE in Lima. BTC = global market. It is not a physical good. Real estate in Lima: physical goods backed in huge portion by overpriced mortgages from Peruvian banks. You won't be buying bitcoins with a mortgage. Not really. The price of RE in Lima is basically what peruvian delincuent banks are willing to finance. This defines the RE prices, not really a physical demand. Same happened in Spain, where people were just buying 2-3-4 houses JUST BECAUSE banks were giving them the mortgage. There was no demand to build so much RE. Go to Spain and see yourself, most of the RE from 2002-2008 is still empty and people are dying from the mortgages. Nobody lives there.

The only coincidence between BTC and RE in Lima is that both are a bubble, but for totally different reasons. Virtually all countries had their bubble already and these bubbles have bursted everywhere. Peru will be no exception. It is just retarded in time, like it is in many aspects. It is behind US and EU by around 10-15 years with respect to RE bubble.

If you buy RE with dirty money, SUNAT will find you. They cross check RE registry with your RUC. In contrary, peruvians who want to wash their dirty money, bring the money out of country.


I don't follow your logic ... there was a huge demand in housing in Spain because banks were throwing money at clients... but there is also a bubble in Peru because "delinquent banks" have overpriced mortgages? Maybe, just maybe, prices are high in Lima and other cities in Peru because there is a deficit of modern housing because of the demographic bubble of young people (average age is 25) and because there has been steady economic growth since the early 90's?

Prices are levelling out now, but unless the economy collapses, there is no good reason the housing market will collapse either.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:44 pm

Alan wrote:I don't follow your logic ... there was a huge demand in housing in Spain because banks were throwing money at clients... but there is also a bubble in Peru because "delinquent banks" have overpriced mortgages? Maybe, just maybe, prices are high in Lima and other cities in Peru because there is a deficit of modern housing because of the demographic bubble of young people (average age is 25) and because there has been steady economic growth since the early 90's?

Prices are levelling out now, but unless the economy collapses, there is no good reason the housing market will collapse either.


Alan: pls read carefully what I wrote. Housing bubbles are mostly always driven by banks giving out mortgages with no or little security. It has been like this in US, Spain, etc. And is not really different in Peru, just mortgages are of delinquent types :/ Banks are ripping off people having them sign a 12-15% pa. mortgage. Believe me or not, but many Peruvians are unable to understand interest rates, amortization, etc. Just BAD at math.

Do you really believe these 250.000 - 300.000 USD apartments in Surco, Miraflores... are affordable for the young people in Peru? With s/1500 monthly salary?

From my experience and from what I see, it is not exaggerated to assume that more than 80% of the construction in Lima is vinculated to drug money. It is also a speculation object of the "rich" in Lima, who bought a second home just to "multiply the money". Those "financiers" will not loose their money, they have sold (aka dumped) it already at the innocent people, who just trusted the inmobiliarias and their bank. They will find themselves deeply deceived.

The market will come down like domino falling, in my opinion soon. What will probably trigger it, will be rumors of one peruvian bank being bad with its finances. It will trigger an avalanche effect. People will withdraw the funds making the bank collapse and more banks may follow. You can ask any bank manager in any other country that had a housing bubble, if a market with over 12% mortgage rates can support itself for long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nBPN-MKefA
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby Alan » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:21 pm

I appreciate your arguments, but I don't think things are as bad as you think. A few comments to address your points: the SBS keeps a pretty tight reign on liabilities at commercial banks and they receive fines when they do not comply; all the large banks in Peru (the ones responsible for the vast majority of loans) have professional management and they maintain international standards; when you buy a second or third home you are asked for a 30% down payment; drugs bring in less than 1 billion a year to Peru - this is less than 0.5% of GDP (and certainly not all of that is being laundered on building); people earning 1500 a month are not buying places in Surco -- they buy in the outlying areas for $30,000, or they self construct.

People who are buying the place you mention are upper middle income famililies often with two incomes. There are more people earning 6000 soles monthly than you imagine. Mid-level beaurocracts at ministries, small business owners, service companies to the construction sectorm people in agro and tourism. The list goes on. There may be come clouds on the horizon, but the sky isn't falling.

Personally speaking, I have applied for a couple mortgages and in my experience, the banks were very, very careful with their due diligence.

But like someone aptly pointed out, the time to get in to buy was back in 2008. That ship has sailed.

All the best..
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:32 pm

Alan wrote:I appreciate your arguments, but I don't think things are as bad as you think. A few comments to address your points: the SBS keeps a pretty tight reign on liabilities at commercial banks and they receive fines when they do not comply;


well, as you know, in Peru nothing really is as it seems. They fine them and bad business continues to operate, that is, what actually is. There is a huge informal sector in the banks. So do not believe any official figures etc. Just make your own conclusions. In my opinion the market is not sustainable at over 12%pa mortgages and will collapse. Lot of people will see their income diminishing too, since it is a spiral down. There are no stable RE markets in developing countries. It goes rapidly up or goes rapidly down, it is as simple. It is like pink sheets stocks etc (if you know what I'm talking about). :mrgreen:
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby Alan » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:33 am

There is an informal financial sector, but these are not the institutions lending for mortgages, and last I checked, mortgages were hovering around 8%, not 12%.. and this is the result of a steady decline over the past decade. I mean, I get your apprehension since Peru sometimes seems like the wild west (aka politics the past week), but the financial sector really is pretty sound. Besides that, the trade balance is positive; FDI has returned; agro is growing (haha), and mining is making a comeback. And even if there is a temporary setback, the central bank has reserves of 60 billion ( a really high ratio vis-a-vis GDP). Also, inflation is controlled (and has averaged roughly 2% over the past decade), and usually (this year and next being exeptions), the govt doesn´t have a habit of running deficits. Biggest issue I see is corruption slowing down public investment... but even this won't bring the walls crashing down.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:44 am

Alan wrote:There is an informal financial sector, but these are not the institutions lending for mortgages, and last I checked, mortgages were hovering around 8%, not 12%...... Also, inflation is controlled (and has averaged roughly 2% over the past decade)...


http://comparabien.com/creditos-hipotecarios

no idea where you get these figures from.

Inflation is for sure NOT at 2%, 2% is what THEY say. The real inflation is around 20-25% pa in Peru. Rentals are not controlled by any law but this would be obligatory to control the inflation. So forget it. PEN is going soon the way of Argentinian peso.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby Alan » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:18 pm

Hi.. I got the figures from BBVA and Scotiabank earlier this year. Note that the mortgage I am talking about is in dollars; sorry I didn´t make that clear.

I don't think the central bank lies about inflation figures, but you are right, the basket of goods they use does not contemplate the price of rental properties. I said 2%, but upon checking, it's closer to 2.9% over the past ten years. Pretty good, and the best in the region. https://gestion.pe/economia/mercados/pe ... ito-128150

BTW, and you probably know this, but Peru follows and inflation targeting regime. They set a reference band at the start of the year and work to meet the target using a handful of tools, but the most important is the policy rate. Rates will probably rise as the economy strengthens (just like the US) but nobody is expecting huge jumps.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:34 pm

Alan wrote:I don't think the central bank lies about inflation figures, but you are right, the basket of goods they use does not contemplate the price of rental properties. I said 2%, but upon checking, it's closer to 2.9% over the past ten years.


YES they DO lie about it.
They even lie in US and EU. You can get an idea about the real amount of inflation looking at the so called M3 money measurement, e.g. for EU:

http://www.tagesgeldvergleich.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Geldmenge-M3-Entwicklung.png

M3 includes inflation that was not yet "monetarized", but it will be, at some point. The basket of goods was created by central banks and statistics bureaus to hide the real amount of inflation from you.

They say inflation 1.2% in Germany LOL, but in fact there was about 8-10% per year since we got the Euro :mrgreen: Just go anywhere into EU and see how much a hot dog, a big mac (so called big mac index :mrgreen: ) costs now and google for historical prices lets say in 2000 => THIS IS inflation. Not what they tell you by imaginary baskets.

Alan: I just do not believe anything unless I see and calculate it. And even less I believe any government figures. They are meant to be fake and keep you silent.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby 69roadrunner » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:49 pm

Oh my God. Fake news has infiltrated Peru, LOL. Grow up Alan, the government and press never tells the truth. Just like Peru is number one on the culinary list of the world.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:35 pm

69roadrunner wrote:Oh my God. Fake news has infiltrated Peru, LOL. Grow up Alan, the government and press never tells the truth. Just like Peru is number one on the culinary list of the world.


well let me put it that way: what is more probable in a country with a very low education:

1) government telling "the" truth
2) government telling anything to manipulate public opinion taking advantage of the, on average, very low education?

?

It is a rhetoric question in fact.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby gringolandia » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:31 am

Bubble Bubble, Toil and Trouble...

So much disinformation and confusion here.

Growth in M3 does not necessarily cause inflation. It can in some cases, but inflation is driven by many factors and M3 is only one of them, much as monetarists might wish it to be otherwise.

Measuring inflation can be a bit tricky, particularly these days with electronics constantly becoming cheaper yet more powerful, which is at least theoretically should be severely deflationary. Smarter people than me try to come up with appropriate measures of inflation, so I'll leave them to it.

Ignoring for the moment the M3 red herring, could the government (or any government) somehow be lying? Sure, but what's the point? The whole point of economics as a science is to squeeze as much production out of the population as possible... supposedly to the benefit of said population, but I think we can all agree that is questionable at best. Some clearly benefit more than others. There's a reason economics is called the "miserable science".

The government economists try to come up with the most accurate measurements they can so they can give bankers and politicians the tools to get as much out of the workers as possible. All hail the great GDP! That's no secret. Maybe life would be better if they instead just measured happiness levels and made decisions based on that, but that seems ... unlikely.

So really there's no incentive for the numbers to be lies. Accurate economic numbers are the best tools of "oppression", not to mention that these things are internationally standardized as much as possible so that the international financial markets can function properly (and sure, you might want to consider how they are "oppressing" you too.)

(In case it isn't clear, I'm being a bit tongue-in-cheek about this oppression business. It is a bit sobering to think about what really drives economics, but it really has brought great advantages to most of us even if it has some pretty awful downsides.)
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:38 pm

gringolandia wrote:Measuring inflation can be a bit tricky, particularly these days with electronics constantly becoming cheaper yet more powerful, which is at least theoretically should be severely deflationary. Smarter people than me try to come up with appropriate measures of inflation, so I'll leave them to it.


Nope, it is in fact very simple. Compare the price of a Big Mac in 2000 to the price today and you have a quite good measurement for inflation.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby fanning » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:52 pm

https://peru21.pe/economia/indice-big-mac-dolar-peru-deberia-s-2-37-12156 2012
http://www.monedasdevenezuela.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Cuadro-Comparativo1.jpg 2017

So in 2012 a Bigmac costed US$ 3.71 and now in 2017 only US$3.24

So according to the Bigmac index there was deflation, no inflation in the last 5 years ..
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:57 pm

you have to view it always in local currency. It works best for large time spans, not for 4 years.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:03 pm

Fanning: you would get a better idea about the inflation comparing the prices lets say for 2007 and 2017. And always do it in PEN.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby fanning » Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:16 am

Apparently you want to see numbers in such a way that Peru always will come out bad, it's fine with me, Mrsteak, you have your opinion, I tried with some links show you wrong.
A bar of sublime used to be 1 sol ( in 2006), now it is 1.20, Wow, big inflation.
Diesel always was around 10 sol a galon, it still is.
My 45 Kg bottle of gas is for the last 10 years around 120 - 130 soles

And even the Bigmac index, which for some reason is calculated in all the tables in US$, shows no significant inflation.

But sure you are right, Peru sucks, and you keep on bringing that message until nobody is interested in responding anymore.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:28 am

fanning wrote:Apparently you want to see numbers in such a way that Peru always will come out bad, it's fine with me, Mrsteak, you have your opinion, I tried with some links show you wrong.
A bar of sublime used to be 1 sol ( in 2006), now it is 1.20, Wow, big inflation.
Diesel always was around 10 sol a galon, it still is.
My 45 Kg bottle of gas is for the last 10 years around 120 - 130 soles

And even the Bigmac index, which for some reason is calculated in all the tables in US$, shows no significant inflation.

But sure you are right, Peru sucks, and you keep on bringing that message until nobody is interested in responding anymore.


I tell you the right way of calculating such indices. For statistical interpretation you need a time span that will avoid fluctuations not based on inflation. That's why just looking at Bigmac price 2016 and 2017 is not sufficient. You need to average it over many years to see the inflation.

Gas prices are not directly linked to inflation. The fossil fuel market is heavily ruled by speculation, last time I looked at it there were 50x more future contracts on petrol than the actual petrol amount being sold.
You could use kWh prices averaged over 10-15 years to look at inflation. It is a better measure.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby adrian Thorne » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:14 pm

I am not entering in to a debate with anybody who has such a narrow vision, but to reinforce Fanning's input, I can confirm I have experienced little change in the cost of living in Peru over the last ten years. As a major example the account with My local Municipal has shown an increase over this period. In 2007 my total annual combined La Molina municipal/Government bill was 1,232 soles. Last year the account for 2017 was 1,812 Soles. This amounts to an increase of just under 48%. In 2007 I was paying in England equivalent to 7500 Soles for the same period and therefor consider I have made dramatic savings, when the same charges in England are now double the original cost. This also applies to all utility accounts. We have lived in the same house and the circumstances are unaltered during the whole ten years. I keep strict budgetary accounts.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby ironchefchris » Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:23 pm

Numbers can always be massaged in such a way that if you apply certain variable parameters (what goods you're (not)/considering in your calculations, timelines, etc.) you can always find a way it "works best" so that the numbers draw the conclusion you'd like them to. Politicians, government agencies, economists, stock/commodities/financial instrument salespeople, just about everyone does it. Draw your conclusion then work backwards with the numbers till you find what works to create the example/pattern you're looking for. Works for optimists, pessimists and realists alike.

I think most people pretty much ignore the reports and go more by their wallet. Personally, I've noticed some products/services I use regularly have gone up in price while others have remained pretty constant over my 5+ years in Perú. I might feel differently or be more alarmed if there was hyperinflation - bring your wheelbarrow full of cash to buy pan in the morning because it'll probably take two wheelbarrows to buy the same amount in the afternoon.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:44 pm

ironchefchris wrote:Numbers can always be massaged in such a way that if you apply certain variable parameters (what goods you're (not)/considering in your calculations, timelines, etc.) you can always find a way it "works best" so that the numbers draw the conclusion you'd like them to.


you mess stuff up here. Statistical analysis always depends on time spans / sufficient samples to make meaningful predictions. So there is no point about "measuring" inflation with BigMac index just from 2015 to 2016 - it is not going to work. You NEED 10, better 20 years to make meaningful predictions. Get used to it.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:52 pm

adrian Thorne wrote:I am not entering in to a debate with anybody who has such a narrow vision, but to reinforce Fanning's input, I can confirm I have experienced little change in the cost of living in Peru over the last ten years. As a major example the account with My local Municipal has shown an increase over this period. In 2007 my total annual combined La Molina municipal/Government bill was 1,232 soles. Last year the account for 2017 was 1,812 Soles. This amounts to an increase of just under 48%.


This is however quite lot of inflation for 10 years right? Gives me 4% pa only on your utility bills. Add energy to this, rentals, food and you are easily at 6-7-8% pa, far higher than the official figures.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby ironchefchris » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:29 pm

mrsteak wrote:
ironchefchris wrote:Numbers can always be massaged in such a way that if you apply certain variable parameters (what goods you're (not)/considering in your calculations, timelines, etc.) you can always find a way it "works best" so that the numbers draw the conclusion you'd like them to.


you mess stuff up here. Statistical analysis always depends on time spans / sufficient samples to make meaningful predictions. So there is no point about "measuring" inflation with BigMac index just from 2015 to 2016 - it is not going to work. You NEED 10, better 20 years to make meaningful predictions. Get used to it.

I'm not at all saying you're incorrect in your response as to the significance of time spans/sample sizes/other statistical parameters, but you completely missed my point that you quoted.

14, 15, 17, or 18 years might not "work best" measuring a, b, c, d, and e, but if you measure 16 years, leave out d, and add f, it very well could give a person the looked for result that proves their desired conclusion. Change the variables, change the result. Even when the variables are all statistically valid in how they are used in that particular grouping. Glass is half full, half empty, twice as large as it needs to be - all correct. Change the size of the glass, adjust the volume percentages to 60/40, make the glass a pitcher - adjust the language to fit the conclusion and you'll still be correct.

Using variables which are irrelevant to an individual may paint an accurate picture of the variables discussed, but ultimately means nothing if they are not relevant to the individual. One of those cases of 'what's true for you is true,' or 'what's true for you is what you have observed yourself.' It's trying to force what you believe to be an objective truth on people for what is ultimately a subjective reality. Despite all the experts talk and analysis, most people look at the economy in a personal, micro, not macro way. The average person cares less about what a politician quoting an economist who conducted a government study says and more about how they feel they are doing based on personal experience because instinctively they know all those numbers can be massaged to give a report the desired conclusion.

Someone without a job and hurting financially doesn't care who says the economy is booming or what figures they point to that proves their conclusion, just as someone doing well doesn't really find relevance in an analysis filled article that says the sky is falling. An economist using the Dow Jones to gauge the economy and declaring it better than ever means nothing to the person who doesn't own stock and judges the economy based on more personally relevant variables, such as their stagnant wages.

If you think Perú is one of the worst countries to live in nothing that anyone says will convince you otherwise, just as someone who enjoys their life here and is doing well won't be convinced by your arguments. It's like trying to convince someone that your way of taking coffee is right and theirs is wrong.

But count me as another one not looking to get too deep into this discussion. It really doesn't effect me how people view inflation. Might as well debate something as objective as religion/politics where people also tend to feel absolute in their convictions and opinions. So with that, have a prosperous, and more importantly, happy 2018.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:39 pm

ironchefchris wrote:14, 15, 17, or 18 years might not "work best" measuring a, b, c, d, and e, but if you measure 16 years, leave out d, and add f, it very well could give a person the looked for result that proves their desired conclusion.


This is not what I propose. You should not be measuring inflation for lets say years 2007-2017, leaving out 2011, 2012 and 2014. It does not work that way. Just take contiguous intervals of as many years as possible and you will get an inflation estimate.

There is no desired result. There are just numbers that come out, if you apply the correct math.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:49 pm

ironchefchris wrote:But count me as another one not looking to get too deep into this discussion. It really doesn't effect me how people view inflation. Might as well debate something as objective as religion/politics where people also tend to feel absolute in their convictions and opinions. So with that, have a prosperous, and more importantly, happy 2018.


We spoke too much about inflation here, however my initial arguments were much broader than this. Just scroll back to the first post. :roll:

In my opinion there is just no point to live in Peru, no point besides e.g. you have family and you have to pass a time here. But by no reason I would go voluntarily to Peru. There is no advantage for living in Peru I can think about. In virtually any country in SA (except Venezuela, and maybe Honduras+Haiti) you will do better than here.

I propose the Peru advocates to open a separate thread "Why Peru is the best place to live" - and please stay factual (so far you only contradict what I say, saying "no it is not true" - but please bring your own PRO arguments, if you find any). :mrgreen:

And one more thing: you will soon see that the government will become VERY oppressive to foreigners in Peru. It is over being an easy going country. You will soon find yourself in a very oppressive controlled country, with lots of power for immigration, police, SUNAT (same or even worse than US, EU), however with a standard of living, crime, pollution, lack of education, murder rates etc on a level of retarded african countries. And without a working legal system. Think about this twice planing your future life. :shock:
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby ironchefchris » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:29 pm

mrsteak wrote:
ironchefchris wrote:14, 15, 17, or 18 years might not "work best" measuring a, b, c, d, and e, but if you measure 16 years, leave out d, and add f, it very well could give a person the looked for result that proves their desired conclusion.


This is not what I propose. You should not be measuring inflation for lets say years 2007-2017, leaving out 2011, 2012 and 2014. It does not work that way. Just take contiguous intervals of as many years as possible and you will get an inflation estimate.

There is no desired result. There are just numbers that come out, if you apply the correct math.

Perhaps not the best example, but my point isn't that your numbers or methods are incorrect, it's that in these matters politicians/economists/govt. agencies/salespeople/etc. use the variables that will give them their desired result. If 2005-2015 measuring a-f gives a better result than measuring 2006-2016 measuring b-g they'll do it - unless they want to paint a bleaker picture. It's similar to when accountants defer income and push tax obligations to future tax periods. Numbers get massaged. It's how opposing politicians each citing economic reports that validate their opposing viewpoints can both be technically correct. It's silly (imo) to put too much stock in these figures and reports to believe that they accurately represent an absolute, objective truth. Is this red? Is it blue? Depends on what you want it to be which dictates how you'll interpret the data.

The average person knows this to be the case. People trust their own instincts and wallets more than they do the Washington D.C./Lima/wherever political establishment and their government agency, political action committee, or economist for hire conducted studies.

There's an old joke:

A businessman was interviewing job applications for the position of manager of a large division. He quickly devised a test for choosing the most suitable candidate. He simply asked each applicant this question, "What is two plus two?"

The first interviewee was a journalist. His answer was, "Twenty-two."

The second was a social worker. She said, "I don't know the answer but I'm very glad that we had the opportunity to discuss it."

The third applicant was an engineer. He pulled out a slide rule and came up with an answer "somewhere between 3.999 and 4.001."

Finally, the businessman interviewed an economist/accountant. When he asked him what two plus two was, the economist/accountant got up from his chair, went over to the door, closed it, came back and sat down. Leaning across the desk, he said in a low voice, "How much do you want it to be?" He got the job.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby SilverbackPeru » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:41 pm

adrian Thorne wrote:I am not entering in to a debate with anybody who has such a narrow vision, but to reinforce Fanning's input, I can confirm I have experienced little change in the cost of living in Peru over the last ten years. As a major example the account with My local Municipal has shown an increase over this period. In 2007 my total annual combined La Molina municipal/Government bill was 1,232 soles. Last year the account for 2017 was 1,812 Soles. This amounts to an increase of just under 48%. In 2007 I was paying in England equivalent to 7500 Soles for the same period and therefor consider I have made dramatic savings, when the same charges in England are now double the original cost. This also applies to all utility accounts. We have lived in the same house and the circumstances are unaltered during the whole ten years. I keep strict budgetary accounts.


Mmmm not too sure about that Adrian. There's very little change in England in council tax and utility bills since I left in 2009 and since I've returned. Council tax is still about the £100 -£120 mark. Although the biggest change has been the crash in house prices since we voted for brexit with house prices dropping by 25%. A two bedroom apartment in the centre of town can easily be bought now for as little as £40'000 to £50'000. Food has gone up a bit since Brexit but even then it's pretty affordable. The finding a full time job is what is really hurting folks.

I have to agree most every day products haven't changed much at all in Lima but house prices and rents did sky rocket since 2009. I don't think house prices will crash either but at the same time can you really write it off that it won't happen? Most high income jobs are in natural resource jobs and when i left a lot of people were worried about their jobs due to the slow down in business. Hopefully things will pick up again.
Last edited by SilverbackPeru on Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby ironchefchris » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:45 pm

mrsteak wrote:
ironchefchris wrote:But count me as another one not looking to get too deep into this discussion. It really doesn't effect me how people view inflation. Might as well debate something as objective as religion/politics where people also tend to feel absolute in their convictions and opinions. So with that, have a prosperous, and more importantly, happy 2018.


We spoke too much about inflation here, however my initial arguments were much broader than this. Just scroll back to the first post. :roll:

In my opinion there is just no point to live in Peru, no point besides e.g. you have family and you have to pass a time here. But by no reason I would go voluntarily to Peru. There is no advantage for living in Peru I can think about. In virtually any country in SA (except Venezuela, and maybe Honduras+Haiti) you will do better than here.

I propose the Peru advocates to open a separate thread "Why Peru is the best place to live" - and please stay factual (so far you only contradict what I say, saying "no it is not true" - but please bring your own PRO arguments, if you find any). :mrgreen:

And one more thing: you will soon see that the government will become VERY oppressive to foreigners in Peru. It is over being an easy going country. You will soon find yourself in a very oppressive controlled country, with lots of power for immigration, police, SUNAT (same or even worse than US, EU), however with a standard of living, crime, pollution, lack of education, murder rates etc on a level of retarded african countries. And without a working legal system. Think about this twice planing your future life. :shock:

I'm not going to get into making a pro or con argument over a subject that I feel is ultimately personal and subjective. Who am I to tell you that you're crazy for drinking your coffee light and sweet instead of black, no sugar?

It's interesting that you you find no point in living in or wouldn't go voluntarily to Peru, but you find a point in voluntarily going to a Peru'centric internet forum to create an account so you can post prolifically about what a terrible place it is. Do you do this for other countries not to your liking as well?
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:38 pm

SilverbackPeru wrote:Mmmm not too sure about that Adrian. There's very little change in England in council tax and utility bills since I left in 2009 and since I've returned. Council tax is still about the £100 -£120 mark. Although the biggest change has been the crash in house prices since we voted for brexit with house prices dropping by 25%. A two bedroom apartment in the centre of town can easily be bought now for as little as £40'000 to £50'000. Food has gone up a bit since Brexit but even then it's pretty affordable. The finding a full time job is what is really hurting folks.

I have to agree most every day products haven't changed much at all in Lima but house prices and rents did sky rocket since 2009. I don't think house prices will crash either but at the same time can you really write it off that it won't happen? Most high income jobs are in natural resource jobs and when i left a lot of people were worried about their jobs due to the slow down in business. Hopefully things will pick up again.


Well you see! In GB the RE prices dropped significantly. Now ask any RE agent in Lima, they will tell you the prices will rise. There is huge denial of reality among Peruvians and people living in Peru :evil: My point is: RE market in Peru is an unstable market. It will react stronger to shocks than lets say GB. In my opinion it is set up for a major crash. if you own RE in Peru, SELL it now. Do not wait. Invest your money into markets that have crashed. Rent out your overseas property and live in Peru from the rent. After it crashed, buy back cheap property (if you still consider living in Peru). There is nothing about hate or like Peru, just being practical about investment. I would do that in any other country.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby gringolandia » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:58 am

mrsteak wrote:
gringolandia wrote:Measuring inflation can be a bit tricky, particularly these days with electronics constantly becoming cheaper yet more powerful, which is at least theoretically should be severely deflationary. Smarter people than me try to come up with appropriate measures of inflation, so I'll leave them to it.


Nope, it is in fact very simple. Compare the price of a Big Mac in 2000 to the price today and you have a quite good measurement for inflation.


If your life revolves around just eating Big Macs then sure, that'll work.

Otherwise, not so simple.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby Ron » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:01 pm

Mrsteak,
Just a few questions out of curiosity:
1. Why are you in Peru?
2. When are you planning to leave?
3. Where are you going?
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:30 pm

Ron wrote:Mrsteak,
Just a few questions out of curiosity:
1. Why are you in Peru?
2. When are you planning to leave?
3. Where are you going?


1. fiance (after being robbed with gun several times and after our flat got lot of cracks after minor earthquakes she is now willing to leave this country)
2. leaving by now
3. Uruguay
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby toughrider » Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:33 pm

Mr. Steak,

did you ever venture outside Lima?

You'll be amazed when you leave Lima. There are so many beautiful, safe and clean cities and towns in Peru.
I lived in the country side for 6 years.

Food was cheap, housing was cheap. It was safe. No stress. Waking up in the morning and heard the birds singing.
Very little traffic. I drove a motorbike.

I had a new built 3 bed home which I bought for $30000.
I left the door of my house unlocked day and night and never had been anything stolen.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby toughrider » Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:50 pm

mrsteak wrote:You can buy new apartment on Spanish coast for less than 50.000€. You can buy a complete home from 90.000€ in Spain. Why pay 300.000 or more in Peru? Benefit? Sense?!


Houseprices are cheaper in Spain but did ever try to get a job in Spain?
It's very tough and if you find a job then with a Spanish wage, it will be very hard to even get a mortgage for a 50000 euro apartment.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:29 pm

toughrider wrote:Mr. Steak,

did you ever venture outside Lima?

You'll be amazed when you leave Lima. There are so many beautiful, safe and clean cities and towns in Peru.
I lived in the country side for 6 years.


I think you describe another planet :mrgreen: Everywhere in Peru you have that bad building style, sticking iron bars, dirt and garbage, belling dirty dogs, no matter where you go. I drove everywhere around Lima and I was in Nazca, Tacna, Arequipa and Cuzco and everywhere the same picture.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby mrsteak » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:31 pm

toughrider wrote:
mrsteak wrote:You can buy new apartment on Spanish coast for less than 50.000€. You can buy a complete home from 90.000€ in Spain. Why pay 300.000 or more in Peru? Benefit? Sense?!


Houseprices are cheaper in Spain but did ever try to get a job in Spain?
It's very tough and if you find a job then with a Spanish wage, it will be very hard to even get a mortgage for a 50000 euro apartment.


I doubt your wage will be less than any wage in Peru. But unemployment is an issue, right. However, if you have right education you should be able to find a job.
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Re: Why I think Peru is one of the worst countries to live

Postby toughrider » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:41 pm

I am wondering why Mr. Steak lives in Peru.
If you don't like Peru, then simply go somewhere that suit your needs. Peru isn't going to change for you.


I lived in Peru for 6 years and loved it.

Friendly people, safe, beautiful countryside, nice warm weather all year round.
Cheap housing, very cheap and good food.
I loved driving my motorbike and travel around Peru.

Good roads, nice airports and good reliable airlines.

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