The sale of houses in Lima fell more than 23%

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tupacperu
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The sale of houses in Lima fell more than 23%

Postby tupacperu » Tue Nov 11, 2008 11:17 am

This has been put in a translator, so the grammar may not be correct.

Many of us saw it coming with the explosion of home building in Lima.


The sale of houses in Lima fell more than 23% in the third trimester of the year1

http://www.elcomercio.com.pe/ediciononline/HTML/2008-11-11/la-venta-viviendas-lima-cayo-mas-23-tercer-trimestre-ano.html
0:15 | International the financial crisis has put in delay some projects, affirms real estate consultant


The international conjuncture begins to pass invoice to the sector construction of our country before which it was expected. Although it was considered that the financial crisis would reduce the forecasts of growth of the sector for the 2009, a quarterly study of the real estate consultant Tinsa reveals that the demand of houses in Lima was contracted 23.8% between July and September, with respect to the previous trimester.




The study, realised in 15 districts of Lima and the Callao, found that unlike the 3,613 units sold between April and June, during the third trimester of the 2008 were placed 2,752 houses. It is possible to specify that the districts where the sales were reduced in greater percentage are Jesus Maria (- 68%) and San Borja (- 57.5%).




To say of Gino Layseca, general manager of Tinsa, the financial crisis “has put in “stand by” part of the anticipated projects to be developed for the rest of the year and leaves from the 2009”.




It is important to clarify that, although the numbers can be worrisome, the analysts anticipated from before untying the crisis that the growth of the sector construction would tend to become stabilized to the loss; that is to say, below reported 16% in the 2007 and of 17.9% anticipated by the Peruvian Institute of Economía (IPE) for the 2008. It is more, the IPE esteem that in the 2009 sector will grow 10%, very over anticipated 6% for the GIP.




For Layseca, insofar as the country stays stable during the crisis, this position will help to the development and stability of the construction. But --it clarifies-- there is no guarantee of which the sector recovers the dynamism of the previous years.




TOTAL SALES
The investigation of the consultant also established that the accumulated sale of houses until September reached the 10,213 units. If we unfolded the total number, we will see that the districts with better results in sales were Santiago de Surco (18.1%), Miraflores (16.4%) and Magdalena (11%).

PRECISIONS
The supply is reduced
- the supply of houses for the third trimester was of 3,451 units, bases inferior in 19,9% with respect to the previous trimester.
-the districts of Furrow, Miraflores and Magdalena concentrate 37.8% of the supply of houses, with 12.9%, 12.5% and 12.4%, respectively.
- In the first trimester of the year 3,848 houses in Lima were sold and the Pebble.
- the time to exhaust the supply of houses in Lima rose during the same period analyzed in 1,42 months; that is to say, it spent of 10.34 months the second trimester to 11.76 months.


David

Postby David » Tue Nov 11, 2008 6:13 pm

I don't want to say I told you so but.....!

Don't worry the sky is not falling, yet! :wink: :idea:

Be careful things kind of go like this. Panic, everyone is getting in on the great housing market I've got to get in so I'm not left behind. Mass panic to get in causing a false bubble.

Then all of a sudden someone gets cold feet and starts a reverse panic on the downward side. I got to get out, knowone is buying anymore I don't want to be left holding the bag. And everyone starts to sell. Panic insues and we have false hysteria of those trying to sell.

David
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Postby markr » Tue Nov 11, 2008 6:35 pm

What about the value of housing in Lima? I'm looking for documented fact not opinion.
Parmentier

Postby Parmentier » Tue Nov 11, 2008 6:44 pm

markr wrote:What about the value of housing in Lima? I'm looking for documented fact not opinion.



For prices check El Comercio (the real market, not opinions). Unfortunately the tendency is still going up in many districts. This is why many construction companies can't afford - or don't want - to buy land
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Postby cajun jamie » Tue Nov 11, 2008 7:02 pm

Parmentier wrote:
markr wrote:What about the value of housing in Lima? I'm looking for documented fact not opinion.



For prices check El Comercio (the real market, not opinions). Unfortunately the tendency is still going up in many districts. This is why many construction companies can't afford - or don't want - to buy land


My sentiments exactly. However, the article would make sense and I would believe prices are, or will come down.
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Postby naturegirl » Tue Nov 11, 2008 8:37 pm

NOt for a while though. There are still lots and lots of places going up.
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Postby Alpineprince » Tue Nov 11, 2008 8:42 pm

Parmentier wrote:
markr wrote:What about the value of housing in Lima? I'm looking for documented fact not opinion.



For prices check El Comercio (the real market, not opinions). Unfortunately the tendency is still going up in many districts. This is why many construction companies can't afford - or don't want - to buy land

The rule of thumb in construction (Miraflores district) is that you could double your initial investment (land cost) in eight mos. to 1 1/2 years. Which equated to $150,000 for the small contractor. Due to demand for construction workers, tradesmen,professionals, permitting etc. all going up in price along with the tripling of land prices the small builder is being squeezed. Either zoning must be relaxed (taller buildings) or prices per sq/mtr need to rise in order to compete and justify the investment.

New construction keeps a lid on prices for resales. If they can not build out demand then our current apartments will be worth a few sheckels!
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Postby tupacperu » Tue Nov 11, 2008 8:46 pm

It is too soon for prices to reflect the slow down.Just like in the USA , property owners tend to sell at market for some time, because they are in denial.

This is until the investors start bailing and selling rental/investment property so they do not get caught at the tail end of a down market.
Then Banks start calling loans because the value falls below the loan amount.

When construction slows, this means buying slows, after that sellers and builders start marking down. Which brings the total market down.

With international markets losing money, some people are about 40% less rich that they were last year. You could see this coming with the loose credit in Lima and the median income level. Many are in above their heads. But every day the headlines read Lima will not be greatly afected by the international crisis. Just less than 3 months ago Bush was saying the same about the USA. "Te market fundemental are stable" just as he claimed victory in iraq (lies lies)

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