Peru Presidential Election

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ironchefchris
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby ironchefchris » Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:03 pm

A few people have told me she doesn't have much support from the middle class, but mostly from uneducated campesinos whose votes can easily be influenced with gifts of a kilo of sugar or rice.

She sounds to me like a professional politician with no real accomplishments and people are paying her to travel around and keep the party together after all the misdeeds of her father so that they can once again be the ones who can loot the treasury and take advantage of all that power has to offer. An empty suit doing the bidding of others, almost like US politician Marco Rubio, menos the part about the corrupt father with the humans rights and corruption issues. There's a lot of money to be made as a professional politician, no matter the country.

But I'm a cynic when it comes to politics, I dislike them all pretty much. Just some more than others. I can't really say anything for sure myself as far as having a strong opinion having only been here about three and half years. I'm interested though and am mostly passing on the opinions of those I talk with; friends, relatives of my wife, shopkeepers, taxi drivers, etc.. I'm guessing there's better, but I'm sure there's worse.


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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby tomsax » Wed Apr 06, 2016 12:06 pm

ironchefchris wrote:I don't get why Keiko is so far ahead in the polls. I'm not saying there isn't a reason, just that I don't know what it is. From what I understand she hasn't really accomplished anything. The only reason she's a contender is because of her last name. Her big qualification seems to be a feeling of entitlement to the Presidency. I'm guessing she'd be as much of a puppet of her father's cronies currently working with her now as Bush was a puppet to Cheney, Rumsfeld, and all the other holdovers from Bush The Elder's administration and crowd. Is it that people liked her father and want to see his work continued and figure a vote for Keiko is the best way to accomplish this? Finish what the old man started? I'm open to being wrong on any or all of this, but if so, could someone explain for me/us what it is Keiko has done and what it is about her that should make me want to vote for her over any of her more experienced opponents?


My take is that it was impossible not to take a position on whether you were for or against her father in the 90's. Peruvians were very polarised on the subject but in general the majority of people were for him. He controlled the media so it's not that surprising. He basically became a cult figure. The attitudes of for and against where handing down to the youngsters also. Then when the Montesinos corruption scandel broke and other failings came to light a lot of people had to either admit they got it wrong, or keep hold of a very powerful idea in their heads. I remember in the early 2000s in Peru and people were still clinging on to the idea that he was stil in fact clean, that the critisism was just political, that he was just led astray or let down by Montesinos, that any critisism was a dismissal of anything that he was done that was valuable and must be rejected. People even now are still polarised. Admitting you have been wrong over the last 15 or more years is difficult to do. And if you can elect someone that will perhaps prove you were right all along and mean you can get your own back on all those smug guys who have been making fun of you for the last 15 years... People are stil incredibly polarised by Fujimori. I know a lot of people who will vote for Fujimori. Admitting they are wrong is just not an option for them.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby ironchefchris » Wed Apr 06, 2016 12:27 pm

Sounds similar to what people who've been in a cult for a long time go through. After so many years you have so much invested financially and/or mentally that it's hard to give up, even if you know what you've believed all these years is utterly false. Cognitive dissonance.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby gringolandia » Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:14 pm

Looks like it comes down to Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular or Pedro Kuczynski of PPK. Thankfully the socialist (communist?) Mendoza won't make the cut.

I know plenty of people who support Keiko. I actually met her husband socially this summer and he's a nice guy (I was casually chatting with him and it was only later that my wife pointed out that he is Keiko's husband).

However, there are a LOT of people who will vote against Keiko no matter what. Unbelievably, plenty of highly educated PPK supporters my wife knows were saying they'd vote for Mendoza over Keiko if it came down to those two. The hate against Fujimori runs deep. Personally I don't get it. Sure, there was plenty of corruption in elder Fujimori's administration, but given the enormous good he did for the country it could almost be justified. How much would Peruvians be willing to pay to get rid of the Shining Path if they were to rise again..? How many collateral damage deaths would they accept? A bunch, I bet.

She does seem to lack any real legislative experience, though. She does quite a good job of rallying her party, but I haven't heard of any legislation she's actually passed.

Pedro Kuczynski claims to have the experience Keiko Fujimori lacks, though I don't know enough about his legislative history to know if that is true. He's certainly older than Keiko, anyway ;-)

The vast majority of the people I know are supporting PPK, and they're hoping that the anti-Keiko sentiment will be strong enough to win even though Keiko received about 40% of the first round vote. We'll see how it goes, but my guess is the final tally of the second round will indeed be a lot closer than a casual observer would expect.

In the meantime, might I suggest that Pedro Kuczynski print up a bunch of these shirts for his campaign:

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ironchefchris
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby ironchefchris » Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:47 pm

I just don't get why eliminating Shining Path or doing something about terrorism should give one free reign to loot the treasury and engage in other forms of corruption. I don't see the correlation. It reads to me like Fujimori thought corruption was his reward for doing the job he campaigned for; like applying for a cash register job at Plaza Vea gives one the assumed right to help themselves to the cash they handle. Maybe he thought he deserved more than the President's salary? Maybe being corrupt is just an assumed perk of the job?

I liked the 'Vote for Pedro' t-shirt idea.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby gringolandia » Mon Apr 11, 2016 2:27 pm

His administration was undeniably corrupt, but I don't think Fujimori himself was ever personally convicted of any corruption. My understanding (correct me if I'm wrong) is that he convicted for human rights abuses related to the "death squads" that were sent out to deal with terrorism. Apparently they killed a few innocent people along the way. As far as I'm concerned you're going to break a few eggs when making an omelette. Obama would be guilty of innocent civilians dying in drone strikes by the same standard (don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen).

But yea, obviously the people in his administration could not have been corrupt without him turning a blind eye to their activities, and that's wrong. It is pretty typical when have the sort of strong willed people in power who are necessary to take the steps necessary to fix big problems, though. A George Washington type of strong willed character who will turn down an offer to be made King is truly rare. So while I agree it isn't "right", from a completely pragmatic perspective I'm willing to let it pass. Which I guess in some way makes me similarly morally culpable, only to a lesser degree, as Fujimori looking the other way at the corrupt people in his administration. So be it, I've never claimed to be morally perfect :twisted:

The other open question is whether the sins of the father become the sins of the daughter? I thought Jesus was supposed to put an end to that, but I'm not religious so who knows :lol:

I'd prefer Pedro (though only my wife gets a vote), but I think Peru will most likely be fine either way.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby ironchefchris » Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:00 pm

There's already tons of information from reputable sources re: Fujimori and corruption so no point in me making references or posting links.

Generally speaking, I agree about sins of the father/daughter, but when it comes to politics I'm not as forgiving. If the son/daughter was running against the father's policies in a party completely opposed to the father's I wouldn't hold the son/daughter accountable, but Keiko looks to be using the same people and pushing the same policies and agenda as her father. She may not be guilty for her father's sins, but she hasn't done anything sufficient enough (imo) to really distinguish herself as being her own person, separate from her father. Former US President Bush did pretty much the same, relying on people who worked for his father, people who may have been running the show the whole time.

I don't have a horse in this race by the way. I'm pretty much equally skeptical of all politicians. I just find of the two, PPK seems less distasteful, but I'm open to being wrong and wouldn't be surprised to find he has dirty hands as well.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby gringolandia » Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:30 pm

Actually, if you have a link to an article saying Fujimori was convicted for corruption I'd like to see it. I'd like to get to the bottom of that question.

I've found quite a few articles that have headlines that say he was convicted for corruption, but when I read the details they only say he was found guilty of (1) a warrantless search and (2) human rights abuses.

I've yet to find an article that contains actual details about a conviction for corruption.

Though perhaps I'm using the wrong definition of corruption. Generally when using the word corruption with regard to politicians it strongly implies accepting money for political favors. Of course the more general definition just means becoming bad (dishonesty, fraud, succumbing to a lust for power). So even if there was no conviction for bribery, I suppose the word corruption can still technically be used.

So anyway, to be clear, I do not believe Fujimori has ever been convicted for bribery, but if there is an article that says otherwise please post it so I can get to the bottom of this. Thanks.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby ironchefchris » Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:16 pm

From a Google search - Fujimori corruption conviction. One link of many:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/former-peru ... orruption/

LIMA, Peru - A three-judge panel in Peru convicted jailed former President Alberto Fujimori on Thursday of funneling more than $40 million in public funds to tabloid newspapers that smeared his opponents during his 2000 re-election campaign.

The conviction was the fifth for the 76-year-old Fujimori.

The judges sentenced him to eight years in prison and fined him $1 million. The sentence will run concurrently with the stiffest he has received to date: 25 years for murder in the military death-squad killings of 25 people. He has two additional convictions for corruption and one for abuse of power.


There's plenty of other online information regarding other Fujimori corruption, such as his dealings with Montesinos, etc..

And I get the needing to 'crack a few eggs' metaphor but I don't think that's why Fujimori had to flee the country. There's a difference between collateral damage and intentional human rights abuses. People can make up their own minds of the significance of his having to flee the country while President and being wanted by Interpol. I myself don't look favorably on them or easily dismiss them. But I'm not Peruvian, wasn't around at time, and realize my viewpoint as an outsider.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby gringolandia » Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:24 pm

Great, thanks!
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby ironchefchris » Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:33 pm

What's interesting to me, (and I guess how elections setup like Perú's with a first round and a second round of voting) is to see how the 30-something percent of those who supported neither Keiko or PPK will vote in the second round.

If this were the US where voting is optional a lot of those people wouldn't bother voting, but since voting is mandatory here Veronika's supporters are going to have to hold their noses and vote for someone. Assuming Keiko's and PPK's voters remain loyal, it looks like PPK needs to win around 2/3 of the votes of those who voted for someone else in order to win. It'll be interesting talking to people to see how the support of that near 40% will swing. Will they split it or has Keiko reached a ceiling with her support?

It was interesting seeing how support varied by state as well. Support in Arequipa was fairly close between the top three (PPK/Keiko/Veronika) so I guess if this were the US with an electoral college we'd be a battleground state. I guess the way it's set-up, the near 40% who voted for someone else are a sort of individualized battleground state. I prefer counting the votes of the people to a system that relies on an electoral college.

The craziest thing was not that Gregorio Santos was running for President from jail, but that he won the majority of the vote in his home state of Cajamarca.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby sbaustin » Mon Apr 11, 2016 5:02 pm

Keiko lost the last election in the second round.. I suspect the people that hate Keiko are the same ones that voted for Veronika and the others. I'd be willing to bet (maybe s/1) PPK edges Keiko in the second round like Humala did.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby gringolandia » Mon Apr 11, 2016 6:33 pm

ironchefchris wrote:The craziest thing was not that Gregorio Santos was running for President from jail, but that he won the majority of the vote in his home state of Cajamarca.


And was thus instrumental in keeping Veronica out of the top two. So... thanks..?
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby tomsax » Wed Apr 13, 2016 2:18 pm

I fear that it will be very close and that Kieko will win in the second round. A lot is at stake whea very small swing at the last minute could make a big impact on peoples lives.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby jhand8pp4 » Wed Apr 13, 2016 2:45 pm

In the first round of the 2011 Presidential Election, Keiko received 23.551% of the vote. She increased it to 48.551% in the second round. Likewise, PPK received 18.512% of the vote in the first round of the 2011 elections. In the recent election, Keiko received approximately 39.83% of the vote whereas PPK received approximately 20.99%. I would think that Keiko is feeling good about her chances of winning.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby MarcoPE » Thu Apr 14, 2016 12:35 pm

ironchefchris wrote:If this were the US where voting is optional a lot of those people wouldn't bother voting, but since voting is mandatory here Veronika's supporters are going to have to hold their noses and vote for someone.


Actually, you have to "vote" (or pay the fee).... but you DON"T have to vote for someone-you can just leave the ballot blank though not sure with the electronic process.

tomsax wrote:I fear that it will be very close and that Kieko will win in the second round.


Yes final numbers put Keiko at virtually double PPK ... granted I don't know all that many people in Peru, but I have yet to meet a single person that didn't vote for PPK, which I find incredibly odd considering the lead Keiko has :?
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby ironchefchris » Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:01 pm

That's true. I wonder how many will leave their ballots blank.

PPK has a tough campaign in front of him. Looks like to win Keiko only needs about 1 in 4 votes from those 39% who didn't vote for her or PPK in the first round. It'll be interesting to see how much of an anti-Fujimori sentiment exists, but judging on the '11 election where she picked up more than 25% in the second round it looks like this time it's her's to lose.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby gringolandia » Thu Apr 21, 2016 1:24 am

ironchefchris wrote:It'll be interesting to see how much of an anti-Fujimori sentiment exists, but judging on the '11 election where she picked up more than 25% in the second round it looks like this time it's her's to lose.


The most recent polls seem to indicate she's not gaining much over what she received in the first round, which is surprising to me.

My wife claims that some of the people who voted for Keiko in the first round only did so to prevent Mendoza from getting to the second round, and that they will vote against Keiko in the second round. Who knows? I guess that could be true. It could go a long way towards explaining why she's not polling much higher than her first round results.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby ironchefchris » Thu Apr 21, 2016 11:04 am

We were talking about those polls last night. I was kind of surprised. Makes things more interesting.

Read an old thread from five years ago where people were discussing what they'd do and what would likely happen to Perú should Humala win. Haven't seen or heard much in the way of similar reactions this election. Seems to me to be less about one or the other destroying the country and more about the impression given to world by electing the daughter of Fujimori to represent Perú. At least that's how I'm seeing it; I'm sure for others it's far more personal or there's a much deeper level of involvement.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby hatchepsut » Fri Apr 29, 2016 4:40 am

Kuczynski will make the rich richer and the poor poorer. He will only support his kind of people.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby Sergio Bernales » Sun May 01, 2016 7:42 pm

hatchepsut wrote:Kuczynski will make the rich richer and the poor poorer. He will only support his kind of people.


What would you say his kind of people are? Lepers perhaps. If you look at his family background, his father was renowned doctor who set up a leper colony near Iquitos, so hardly establishment background. Yes, he was an investment banker and has held various posts in several Peruvian governments, but look at his policies and his relative independence from the usual interest groups and you can see he's clearly not a puppet of the rich or the corrupt, or the narcotraficantes. There seems to be a strong sense of civic duty in the family, although anyone that seeks political office must have a fairly big ego. That aside, he seems to come across as a pragmatic liberal (in the European sense) whose doesn't seem to be in Peruvian politics to stuff his pockets with other people's money. The biggest danger I can see is that the political system could be the thing that trips him up if he gets into office - alliance making with less savoury politicos seems to be the way of things here in the absence of strong political parties.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby Alan » Sun May 01, 2016 9:06 pm

He also served under two presidents recognized for their democratic values: Belaunde and Toledo.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby misty » Mon May 02, 2016 10:43 am

Are you suggesting the other candidates do not have democratic values?
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby craig » Mon May 02, 2016 11:39 am

misty wrote:Are you suggesting the other candidates do not have democratic values?

Politicians who think they can win an election have "democratic values." Those who suspect they cannot win a majority discover that they have other priorities. The "democratic values" of all politicians are contingent on how many people they can fool into voting for them.
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It is error alone which needs the support of government. Truth can stand by itself. -- Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby Alan » Mon May 02, 2016 2:41 pm

misty wrote:Are you suggesting the other candidates do not have democratic values?



Nope, not in the least. But the previous posters were talking about specifically PPK.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby misty » Mon May 02, 2016 3:38 pm

Ok I think I got it, you are now saying the other candidates do have democratic vales. Do I have that right?
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby tomsax » Tue May 03, 2016 4:20 pm

misty wrote:Ok I think I got it, you are now saying the other candidates do have democratic vales. Do I have that right?


This is rather too obvious wilful misunderstanding.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby misty » Tue May 03, 2016 5:20 pm

I am sorry, Tom, what is the misunderstanding?
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby gringolandia » Tue May 03, 2016 6:26 pm

Alan suggesting that one candidate may be more likely than not to have democratic values because the candidate served under two Presidents who are known for that quality neither argues for or against other candidates having democratic values. Someone else who cares to offer such an opinion and reasons for such can do so, but Alan was speaking only of the PPK candidate.

In math terms (since you were a math teacher), if P -> Q, that has no relevance to whether R is true or false.

Which, as tomsax said, is a mistake that is is difficult to believe someone would make unintentionally.
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Re: Peru Presidential Election

Postby misty » Tue May 03, 2016 6:51 pm

I am sorry....What?? First I asked Alan a question and Tom answered. Then I ask Tom a question and you answer. Maybe they should answer for themselves.
Did Alan not say "He also served under two presidents recognized for their democratic values: Belaunde and Toledo." Thereby slandering and accusing the other distinguished candidates have no democratic values? I think that is an outrageous accusation in a democratic country.

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