Has PPK won?

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tomsax
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Has PPK won?

Postby tomsax » Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:46 am

I can't stand the suspense. Has PPK won? Sure hope so. What a result if true!

Well done Peru.


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Re: Has PPL won?

Postby Alan » Mon Jun 06, 2016 3:09 pm

Still no final result! What a nail biter. When these figures were released earlier this morning, 92% of votes had been counted.

PERUANOS POR EL KAMBIO 50.320%
FUERZA POPULAR 49.680%
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Re: Has PPL won?

Postby ironchefchris » Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:23 am

The gap is narrowing. As of six this morning:

ACTAS PROCESADAS: 96.670%

PERUANOS POR EL KAMBIO
8,338,579 Votes
50.153 %

FUERZA POPULAR
8,287,713 Votes
49.847 %

Pre-coffee math shows Keiko down by 50,866 with 572,736 votes yet to be counted. She needs close to 59% of the outstanding votes to win.

Of the 8% of the remaining vote when Alan posted yesterday, 58.375% of that has been counted and Keiko narrowed the gap by about half. Can she close the gap with only 3.33% of the vote left to count? If the trend continues this is going to be a virtual tie.

More popcorn. The proverbial fat lady hasn't done her thing yet. Wonder if the rural votes are coming in faster than the overseas votes and which of the two is the larger percentage of votes still to be counted?
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Re: Has PPL won?

Postby Danny55 » Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:58 am

Latest update

ACTAS PROCESADAS: 97.097%
ACTAS CONTABILIZADAS: 95.454%
ACTUALIZADO EL 07/06/2016 A LAS 07:59 h.

PERUANOS POR EL KAMBIO 8,362,088 50.142%
FUERZA POPULAR 8,314,802 49.858%
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Re: Has PPL won?

Postby woodchuck » Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:11 am

NO, PPL will never win - guaranteed!
I bet $10,000,000!!!
The candidate is - PPK & of course this was a typo as L is next to K on the keyboard.
It is rural vs absentee voters & I feel PPK will prevail. Thanks. :roll:
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Re: Has PPL won?

Postby ironchefchris » Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:20 am

With about 13% more of the outstanding votes counted between 6 and 8 it looks like Keiko has closed the gap by another 7%.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby Alan » Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:57 am

What a horse race. Everyone is assuming that the votes from the far off communities will be going to Keiko (probably a good bet), and that most of the overseas votes will go to PPK (I'm not so sure about that).

There is going to be one sore loser when all is counted, said, and done. It's really the last thing we needed.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby ironchefchris » Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:23 am

If the gap continues to close and the final results are even closer does this turn into some variation on the 2000 US Bush/Gore election fight with recounts of recounts and teams of lawyers taking things to the Supreme Court? Is there a spanish equivalent of "hanging chad?"
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby jhand8pp4 » Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:38 am

I agree with Alan that those who believe that PPK will carry the overseas vote may be wrong. You might want to read an article from the Washington Post with the following link:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... story.html
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby Alan » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:35 pm

ironchefchris wrote:If the gap continues to close and the final results are even closer does this turn into some variation on the 2000 US Bush/Gore election fight with recounts of recounts and teams of lawyers taking things to the Supreme Court? Is there a spanish equivalent of "hanging chad?"


Someone just told me that the electoral committee (onpe) has something close to 200,000 votes that were disputed and need to be scrutinized, but I haven´t found anything online about this. Has anyone else heard this?
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby ironchefchris » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:42 pm

Not sure if this is what you're referring to. From the above link to the WaPo story:

About 1,200 handwritten tallies of some 360,000 votes were being disputed and were sent to a special electoral board for review, Mariano Cucho, the head of Peru’s electoral authority, told RPP Radio on Tuesday

We could be in for a long ride.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby Sergio Bernales » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:53 pm

It's possible that Keiko's strong overseas following in the last election was more anti-Humala than pro-Keiko, so how they vote this time may be anyone's guess. Although, taking three days to sack Joaquín Ramírez looks bad in anyone's eyes. Was it incompetence, indecision, bad advice, or a demonstration of how much hold the old guard, the corrupt and the narcotraficantes have over Keiko?

http://www.economist.com/news/americas/ ... waits-next
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby Alpineprince » Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:30 pm

It will surely be close but with 99.54% counted, it still looks like a win for PPK.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby tomsax » Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:27 pm

I was so relieved when I found it he had probably won but am now wondering how half the population (minus 0.2%) are going to easily except this gracefully. As Alan said, not what Peru needs.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby ironchefchris » Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:55 pm

Forget about being accepted gracefully or not, I'm wondering if it'll even be accepted at all. Haven't been watching the news today. What's up with the previously mentioned 360,000 disputed votes that are being reviewed? If Keiko loses by .25% does she have the right to call for a recount?
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby Alpineprince » Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:48 pm

tomsax wrote:I was so relieved when I found it he had probably won but am now wondering how half the population (minus 0.2%) are going to easily except this gracefully. As Alan said, not what Peru needs.

Let them eat cake, or panetone in this case.
99.8% counted and no change.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby Sergio Bernales » Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:36 pm

Looking statistically impossible for her to win now unless she's planning on stirring things up, perhaps another fujigolpe.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby ironchefchris » Thu Jun 09, 2016 8:49 am

Came across something yesterday that said neither side will declare victory or concede defeat until 100% of the vote has been counted and someone in Keiko's party saying they will not contest the results. .009% to go.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby woodchuck » Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:46 am

While it appears that PPK will win; both candidates are better than Humala.
The economy of Peru seems to be stagnating & IMO both candidates have good plans to reverse this.
I hope Peru can come together & unite under a new administration; as there is so much potential here. :roll:
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby Alpineprince » Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:51 am

woodchuck wrote:While it appears that PPK will win; both candidates are better than Humala.
The economy of Peru seems to be stagnating & IMO both candidates have good plans to reverse this.
I hope Peru can come together & unite under a new administration; as there is so much potential here. :roll:

The problem is,Keiko has a clear majority in congress, so it will always be an uphill battle for PPK.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby Polaron » Thu Jun 09, 2016 8:59 pm

I'm not expecting any major changes improvements or catastrophes of any sort. 5 years ago I remember on these boards a handful of people were freaking out about the current fellow claiming that his election would mean the country was going communist Etc. In reality hardly anything happens at all he just didn't have the support and I think he realizes he got into office that he had taken on a massive challenge. I don't think there will be any major changes things so pretty much continue along as they have. I do hope something is done about crime and that the sol is allowed to devalue further against the dollar
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby ironchefchris » Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:11 am

The trend seems to be that they all shift to the right once they enter office. Don't know how that will work out this time since PPK is a bit to the right already.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby tomsax » Fri Jun 10, 2016 10:39 am

Polaron wrote:I 5 years ago I remember on these boards a handful of people were freaking out about the current fellow claiming that his election would mean the country was going communist Etc. In reality hardly anything happens at all he just didn't have the support and I think he realizes he got into office that he had taken on a massive challenge.


Very true. I've just been reading a few threads from exactly five years ago:

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=12948&p=80066&hilit=Humala+has+won#p80213

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=14108&p=79924&hilit=Humala+has+won#p79924

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=13807&p=79815&hilit=Humala+has+won#p79815

Amusing reading all the dire predictions that haven't come true. Apparently I was worried about Humala's military connections and how that might mean him using the army to hold on to power. Seems that was a red herring. We should all learn from our mistakes. History tells us a lot and historical predictions that didn't come true tells us even more.

Noticed that a couple of posts by you Polaron turned out to be not so far off the mark.
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Alan
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby Alan » Fri Jun 10, 2016 1:17 pm

Well, PPK has won, kind of.

Keiko is waiting to have all the disputed acts reviewed before declaring her loss. I think it is strategic on her part, because even though she knows she lost the vote, drawing out the results process makes it harder for her opponents to find the precise moment to celebrate, which exacerbates the impression that it was a weak victory.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby windsportinperu » Sat Aug 06, 2016 11:50 am

Good news.. PPK begins his presidential election with 70.4% of approval..

http://peru21.pe/politica/pedro-pablo-kuczynski-logro-semana-alcanzar-704-aprobacion-segun-cpi-2253913
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby ironchefchris » Sat Aug 06, 2016 3:04 pm

This is the first time I've seen a transfer of power here in Peru. I´m assuming the President gets a honeymoon period before the press, political opponents, and the population at large become more critical. I´d like to see PPK do well. I have no reason not to.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby Polaron » Sat Aug 06, 2016 3:28 pm

I wonder how long it will be before peruvians start calling him crooked and ineffectual. They seem to do that with our president no matter who or what party holds power.
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Re: Has PPK won?

Postby windsportinperu » Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:25 pm

At the beginning of something ... whatever it is... we should be optimistic ..

Good news: vote of confidence given by the Congress to PPK government :

http://peru21.pe/politica/fernando-zavala-voto-confianza-se-definira-este-viernes-2255036/6

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