Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

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gerard
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby gerard » Thu Apr 07, 2011 5:09 pm

Just curious, are you suggesting that "politics" can cause inflation?


Politics in a pure sense, no. Political policies, absolutely.

Let's suppose a policy of nationalising some foreign owned industries is pursued, for example. This leads to a withdrawal of foreign investment and an increase in the cost of facilitating the government debt as the international community perceives a higher risk of default, rightly or wrongly. The sol devalues so the cost of imports rise and the prices of all those nice TVs, white goods, Chinese made goods etc will go up accordingly.

The baker on the corner might not be paying more for his locally producd flour, but he wants a nice TV and needs a new fridge so has to put his prices up. And so the cycle starts.

The government can of course introdude price fixing to control the costs of basic essentials, but they'll soon discover that doesn't work in the real world so they'll then introduce a 2nd exchange rate for imports/exports. It doesn't take much longer for a few savvy ministers to realise they can buy at one rate and sell at the other so they'll be OK, pocketing millions whilst the rest of people gradually see their money become worthless. Still, the black marketeers are happy.

Or maybe I'm too cynical.


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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:17 am

americorps wrote:as Humala gained in the polls, Bloomberg and Standard and Poors has started issuing debt cautions and credit downgrade warnings for Peru.

Peru has benefited from international commerce, even if the distribution system has failed. It would be better for the country economically to fix the distribution through free market reforms such as minimum wage laws, overtime rules and the like...THEN ACTUALLY ENFORCE THEM, instead of rejecting all international investment and having the state assume control of all business.


All the Financial implications of a Humala win are evidence enough, that only the wealthy gain from a Humala loss or win. If Humala wins or loses it will affect the financial markets, but I doubt it will affect poor Peruvians in any manner.

Many mistake Peru's economic development as reason to believe that Peru is developing it's people.
The economic boom in Peru is due to consumerism, credit and external borrowing.
Billions of dollars fleeing Peru in that last week, investors getting cold feet. This would indicate that Peru is dependent on external investment. Wealthy are walking away with their profits.

Unlike China who has manufacturing that can compete with the 1st world, Peru lack an industrial infrastructure to turn it's raw materials into finish products that can compete with the first world ie.. autos, tv and electronic, computers etc....

Peru's raw material are it's weakness, Peru exports these raw materials and foreign mfg return the raw material back to Peru (higher price/finished goods) in the form of products of which Peru's buys up via credit (outflow of capital ).

Foreigners are pillage Peru with the disguise of wealth in the form of credit.
Humala may be extreme, but I agree with his nationalistic views, that Peru needs an economic base internally, not the flow of money from outside sources (This is why the USA is in debt with China, borrowing on our future).

IMO (not humble) hehehe.....
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:26 am

sbaustin wrote:
gerard wrote:I think you'll find that price increases and inflation will quickly cancel out any exchange rate gains.


If there is more unemployment and a strong dollar, that means salaries will go down or stay stagnant and as you point out, costs may go up, but probably most business owners as long as the government doesn't try to nationalize may come out ahead if they earn dollars here in Peru. Anyways, every person's situation is different, and I would rather see Peru get a good leader than someone who may destroy the country (just stating a general opinion and am not endorsing any particular candidate).


Nationalizing some industries are a benefit to consumers, cheaper electricity and utilities.
The World Bank even suggested that some industries should be nationalized.

Advantages to nationalize:

Private firms may decide to only offer profitable services.
Benefits of National Collective Action.
Ability to Equalize Resources
Weakens potential special interest control

If the business is owned by a foreigner, there is the danger.
The private sector may not have enough capital to invest in the business. The private sector also find it difficult to borrow loans from international organisation such as the World Bank or the International monetary fund
Last edited by tupacperu on Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby sbaustin » Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:28 am


Nationalizing some industries are a benefit to consumers, cheaper electricity and utilities.
The World Bank even suggested that some industries should be nationalized.

10 advantages to nationalize:

Private firms may decide to only offer profitable services.
Benefits of National Collective Action.
Ability to Equalize Resources
Weakens potential special interest control
Private firms may decide to only offer profitable services.
Benefits of National Collective Action.
Ability to Equalize Resources.
Weakens potential special interest control
If the business is owned by a foreigner, there is the danger.
The private sector may not have enough capital to invest in the business. The private sector also find it difficult to borrow loans from international organisation such as the World Bank or the International monetary fund


Why don't you explain all the negatives for nationalizing?
Last edited by sbaustin on Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:29 am

sbaustin wrote:[quote="tupacperu"

Nationalizing some industries are a benefit to consumers, cheaper electricity and utilities.
The World Bank even suggested that some industries should be nationalized.

10 advantages to nationalize:

Private firms may decide to only offer profitable services.
Benefits of National Collective Action.
Ability to Equalize Resources
Weakens potential special interest control
Private firms may decide to only offer profitable services.
Benefits of National Collective Action.
Ability to Equalize Resources.
Weakens potential special interest control
If the business is owned by a foreigner, there is the danger.
The private sector may not have enough capital to invest in the business. The private sector also find it difficult to borrow loans from international organisation such as the World Bank or the International monetary fund


Why don't you explain all the negatives for nationalizing?[/quote]

Negatives? High prices, extreme profits for capitalist?

Now you name a few
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby sbaustin » Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:37 am

Lack of consumer choice
Inefficiency
Poor service
Extreme corruption
Brain drain
High prices for consumers

to name a few.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Fri Apr 08, 2011 11:00 am

sbaustin wrote:Lack of consumer choice
Inefficiency
Poor service
Extreme corruption
Brain drain
High prices for consumers

to name a few.


1. inefficiency but low prices for utilities and medical care.
2. poor service - vs high utility prices, high medical bills or lack of money for treatment leading to death
3. Consumer choice? Electricity is electricity, Water is water, Gas is gas. Medication is medication (generics cheaper), what choices do you need?
4. Corruption? There is corruption in private industries (price fixing, profit gouging, kickback etc...).

High prices for consumers? Where? Nationalization put in place price controls because it is regulated by gov't.
This would be a disadvantage of Privatization. Your tax dollars go to supplement nationalization, which means that your tax dollars come back to you. Private companies are in the business of making a profit.
Telefonica for instance, use to be the only game in town (Peru), all the factors you mention are attributes of privatization. So what is the difference, you get the same results on both ends of the spectrum, but nationalization you get a benefits of lower prices goods and services.


What has privatization/deregulation brought us?

Housing crisis
high unemployement
Market crash

widening gap between the rich and the poor.
The middle class is shrinking.
Manufacturing jobs have gone overseas
My comment where that nationalizing some industries where it makes sense.

Balance is the key.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Remigius » Fri Apr 08, 2011 11:07 am

I don't know about y'all, but I've never walked out the door of a Peruvian governmental institution while thinking: "What a swell idea to nationalise!" Can we just stay focussed for a moment and take into consideration that foreign(-led) companies are more efficient, less corrupt and better-structured than the vast majority of Peruvian entities? Xenophobes complain money leaves the country instead of reaching the poor, but conveniently omit that if you put Peruvians in charge, instead of reaching the poor, the money will end up in the pockets of corrupt politicians and CEOs, whereas the rest of that money will be eaten by the bureaucratic monster they'll create.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby sbaustin » Fri Apr 08, 2011 11:17 am

I always enjoy how people who love nationalizing or socializing things don't consider that it is the people's money who fund it via taxes and then the people's money that pays for the service again and then on top of it you get the worst service and corruption imaginable.

Oh yeah, and then people who aren't even in the country, don't use the services, don't do business here, and they tell you it is better their way.

Count me in!

Anyways, let's see how the election shakes out.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby oweniano » Fri Apr 08, 2011 12:20 pm

Just to put a balanced perspective of Venezuela into the mix

http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/5971
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Fri Apr 08, 2011 5:28 pm

sbaustin wrote:I always enjoy how people who love nationalizing or socializing things don't consider that it is the people's money who fund it via taxes and then the people's money that pays for the service again and then on top of it you get the worst service and corruption imaginable.

Oh yeah, and then people who aren't even in the country, don't use the services, don't do business here, and they tell you it is better their way.

Count me in!

Anyways, let's see how the election shakes out.




Maybe many are not a part of this unfortunate population:
In Privatizing Health Care. This is the result , and it is happening in the US of A.

Govt announces plan to reduce health disparitieshttp://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110408/ap_on_he_me/us_med_health_disparities

By LAURAN NEERGAARD, AP Medical Writer Lauran Neergaard, Ap Medical Writer – Fri Apr 8, 7:29 am ET
WASHINGTON – From cradle to grave, minority populations tend to suffer poorer health and get poorer health care than white Americans. In a first-of-its-kind report, the government is recommending steps to reduce those disparities.


Whrere is the efficiency? Where is the quality?
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby sbaustin » Fri Apr 08, 2011 5:41 pm

This is a Peruvian forum not a USA one. Also, you never seem to post any contrary links which just tells us you have an agenda as opposed to trying to educate yourself (or us). I'm not judging you, its fine if you want to try to push your agenda, but you would be better served to actually go and research both sides. I have no desire to debate USA healthcare.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Fri Apr 08, 2011 5:55 pm

I am not debating healthcare, I am stating that nationalization has it positive for the poor.
Privatization has it's place but there has to be regulation and balance.

My agenda is balance , nothing more.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby sbaustin » Fri Apr 08, 2011 6:02 pm

tupacperu wrote:I am not debating healthcare, I am stating that nationalization has it positive for the poor.
Privatization has it's place but there has to be regulation and balance.

My agenda is balance , nothing more.


I'd bet if we took a vote here although it would be subjective, probably close to 100% of everyone would disagree with your statement of balance. That's what makes the forum fun though. Here's to a dry alcohol free weekend!
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Fri Apr 08, 2011 6:15 pm

sbaustin wrote:
tupacperu wrote:I am not debating healthcare, I am stating that nationalization has it positive for the poor.
Privatization has it's place but there has to be regulation and balance.

My agenda is balance , nothing more.


I'd bet if we took a vote here although it would be subjective, probably close to 100% of everyone would disagree with your statement of balance. That's what makes the forum fun though. Here's to a dry alcohol free weekend!


Don't drink, so good luck!

If you look at me previous statements on the forum I am for a balance of capitalism with social responsibility.
go up a few comment :-), better yet do a search on balance:

example: TupacPeru
Re: Growth has not created same opportunities for all Peruvians
... 2009 – that's 20 million people's lives change. Many poor citizens in Peru want the same, a gov't that cares for the least. Brazil is a model of balance of socialism and capitalism. Peru should copy this model. Brazil still has corruption as well as VZ, but Peru is not free of corruption with ...
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby uwwgal » Sat Apr 09, 2011 11:13 am

IMO, if Humala wins, this country is lost. You do understand, correct, that there is a dependency on tourism? If Humala wins, my guess is that tourists would stop coming, or wouldn't be allowed / welcome... and everyone depending on them would be worse off. And that is not Lima... and that is not the rich people either.

I know several people from Venezuela, and I don't know where you get your information from, but not one of the Venezuelans I know is pleased with what Chavez has done to the country, and they have all left and gone to other countries.

Next question. Have you been to migraciones? Do you really want the private sector nationalized after being there? Umm... if you do, there might just be some sort of issue.

Just saying...btw, I don't want to offend anyone here, and I am not really gung-ho politics. In fact, I think most of them are big old liars anywhere in the world. But... when one man is capable of essentially ruining a country, that's a different story. Hopefully Peruvians will think before they vote about the good of the country, and not just vote for someone because of their empty promises and lies.

SUBE SUBE PPK!!! ;)
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Comet » Sat Apr 09, 2011 1:13 pm

tupacperu wrote:
sbaustin wrote:
gerard wrote:I think you'll find that price increases and inflation will quickly cancel out any exchange rate gains.


If there is more unemployment and a strong dollar, that means salaries will go down or stay stagnant and as you point out, costs may go up, but probably most business owners as long as the government doesn't try to nationalize may come out ahead if they earn dollars here in Peru. Anyways, every person's situation is different, and I would rather see Peru get a good leader than someone who may destroy the country (just stating a general opinion and am not endorsing any particular candidate).


Nationalizing some industries are a benefit to consumers, cheaper electricity and utilities.
The World Bank even suggested that some industries should be nationalized.

Advantages to nationalize:

Private firms may decide to only offer profitable services.
Benefits of National Collective Action.
Ability to Equalize Resources
Weakens potential special interest control

If the business is owned by a foreigner, there is the danger.
The private sector may not have enough capital to invest in the business. The private sector also find it difficult to borrow loans from international organisation such as the World Bank or the International monetary fund


Absolute nonsense...tell me ONE..One single country where nationalizing businesses has not lead to; more poverty, lower wages, lower standards, poorer economy, less investment, less exports.ad-infinitum....every country which has de-nationalized industry has done so because it doesn´t work and never will.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Retired in Lima » Sat Apr 09, 2011 2:09 pm

Comet wrote:
tupacperu wrote:
sbaustin wrote:
gerard wrote:I think you'll find that price increases and inflation will quickly cancel out any exchange rate gains.


If there is more unemployment and a strong dollar, that means salaries will go down or stay stagnant and as you point out, costs may go up, but probably most business owners as long as the government doesn't try to nationalize may come out ahead if they earn dollars here in Peru. Anyways, every person's situation is different, and I would rather see Peru get a good leader than someone who may destroy the country (just stating a general opinion and am not endorsing any particular candidate).


Nationalizing some industries are a benefit to consumers, cheaper electricity and utilities.
The World Bank even suggested that some industries should be nationalized.

Advantages to nationalize:

Private firms may decide to only offer profitable services.
Benefits of National Collective Action.
Ability to Equalize Resources
Weakens potential special interest control

If the business is owned by a foreigner, there is the danger.
The private sector may not have enough capital to invest in the business. The private sector also find it difficult to borrow loans from international organisation such as the World Bank or the International monetary fund


Absolute nonsense...tell me ONE..One single country where nationalizing businesses has not lead to; more poverty, lower wages, lower standards, poorer economy, less investment, less exports.ad-infinitum....every country which has de-nationalized industry has done so because it doesn´t work and never will.

It should be noted that at 33%, VZ has the highest inflation rate in the world currently.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Remigius » Sat Apr 09, 2011 7:17 pm

My wife was recently in Arequipa with a delegation of the EU to check the capsicum fields and they had a driver of the local company whose task it was to drive around people from foreign delegations. When asked he said he was going vote for Humala, whereon the local plant manager quickly replied: "Jose, you do know what you'll be without a job when that happens?" Food for thought!
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Sun Apr 10, 2011 10:28 am

Remigius wrote:My wife was recently in Arequipa with a delegation of the EU to check the capsicum fields and they had a driver of the local company whose task it was to drive around people from foreign delegations. When asked he said he was going vote for Humala, whereon the local plant manager quickly replied: "Jose, you do know what you'll be without a job when that happens?" Food for thought!


With the the way inflation is going he will not be able to afford food.

Come on that plant mgr is speaking because he is far from poor. I would take the comment
As an indirect threat, telling a person how to vote.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Sun Apr 10, 2011 10:36 am

China!!!
And what country trggered the global financial crisis?
Greedy capitalist.
Like the rest of the world is in great shape ;)


Retired in Lima wrote:
Comet wrote:
tupacperu wrote:
sbaustin wrote:
gerard wrote:I think you'll find that price increases and inflation will quickly cancel out any exchange rate gains.


If there is more unemployment and a strong dollar, that means salaries will go down or stay stagnant and as you point out, costs may go up, but probably most business owners as long as the government doesn't try to nationalize may come out ahead if they earn dollars here in Peru. Anyways, every person's situation is different, and I would rather see Peru get a good leader than someone who may destroy the country (just stating a general opinion and am not endorsing any particular candidate).


Nationalizing some industries are a benefit to consumers, cheaper electricity and utilities.
The World Bank even suggested that some industries should be nationalized.

Advantages to nationalize:

Private firms may decide to only offer profitable services.
Benefits of National Collective Action.
Ability to Equalize Resources
Weakens potential special interest control

If the business is owned by a foreigner, there is the danger.
The private sector may not have enough capital to invest in the business. The private sector also find it difficult to borrow loans from international organisation such as the World Bank or the International monetary fund


Absolute nonsense...tell me ONE..One single country where nationalizing businesses has not lead to; more poverty, lower wages, lower standards, poorer economy, less investment, less exports.ad-infinitum....every country which has de-nationalized industry has done so because it doesn´t work and never will.

It should be noted that at 33%, VZ has the highest inflation rate in the world currently.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Sun Apr 10, 2011 10:44 am

If humala is wins my $$$ is stronger.
When i lived in Peru in early 2000s the sol was about 4 to $1.00,
Life was good rent ,housing was cheap and crime was lower.
I vote my pockets. How does a humala Peru affect you?
Tourist will continue to visit, it will be capitalist fleeing.
Any manner they will pilliage peru until they get enough then leave.



Judging by you PPK leaning you are of the middle class.
So , your VZ friends i would not consider backers of chavez.

:)

uwwgal wrote:IMO, if Humala wins, this country is lost. You do understand, correct, that there is a dependency on tourism? If Humala wins, my guess is that tourists would stop coming, or wouldn't be allowed / welcome... and everyone depending on them would be worse off. And that is not Lima... and that is not the rich people either.

I know several people from Venezuela, and I don't know where you get your information from, but not one of the Venezuelans I know is pleased with what Chavez has done to the country, and they have all left and gone to other countries.

Next question. Have you been to migraciones? Do you really want the private sector nationalized after being there? Umm... if you do, there might just be some sort of issue.

Just saying...btw, I don't want to offend anyone here, and I am not really gung-ho politics. In fact, I think most of them are big old liars anywhere in the world. But... when one man is capable of essentially ruining a country, that's a different story. Hopefully Peruvians will think before they vote about the good of the country, and not just vote for someone because of their empty promises and lies.

SUBE SUBE PPK!!! ;)
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Remigius » Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:25 pm

tupacperu wrote:If humala is wins my $$$ is stronger.
When i lived in Peru in early 2000s the sol was about 4 to $1.00,
Life was good rent ,housing was cheap and crime was lower.
I vote my pockets. How does a humala Peru affect you?
Tourist will continue to visit, it will be capitalist fleeing.
Any manner they will pilliage peru until they get enough then leave.


:shock: Man, are you gonna be in for a big surprise or what? :!:
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby cubangringo » Sun Apr 10, 2011 1:55 pm

Anybody who has any brains. Cuba,venezuela lived it. Have heard that old tired song and dance from people like humala to many times. God help peru if he wins.
Comet

Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Comet » Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:42 pm

tupacperu wrote:If humala is wins my $$$ is stronger.
When i lived in Peru in early 2000s the sol was about 4 to $1.00,
Life was good rent ,housing was cheap and crime was lower.
I vote my pockets. How does a humala Peru affect you?
Tourist will continue to visit, it will be capitalist fleeing.
Any manner they will pilliage peru until they get enough then leave.



Judging by you PPK leaning you are of the middle class.
So , your VZ friends i would not consider backers of chavez.

:)

uwwgal wrote:IMO, if Humala wins, this country is lost. You do understand, correct, that there is a dependency on tourism? If Humala wins, my guess is that tourists would stop coming, or wouldn't be allowed / welcome... and everyone depending on them would be worse off. And that is not Lima... and that is not the rich people either.

I know several people from Venezuela, and I don't know where you get your information from, but not one of the Venezuelans I know is pleased with what Chavez has done to the country, and they have all left and gone to other countries.

Next question. Have you been to migraciones? Do you really want the private sector nationalized after being there? Umm... if you do, there might just be some sort of issue.

Just saying...btw, I don't want to offend anyone here, and I am not really gung-ho politics. In fact, I think most of them are big old liars anywhere in the world. But... when one man is capable of essentially ruining a country, that's a different story. Hopefully Peruvians will think before they vote about the good of the country, and not just vote for someone because of their empty promises and lies.

SUBE SUBE PPK!!! ;)


Si I imagine you will be coming back to live here if Humala Chavez wins???if not..why not?
Comet

Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Comet » Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:47 pm

tupacperu wrote:China!!!
And what country trggered the global financial crisis?
Greedy capitalist.
Like the rest of the world is in great shape ;)


Retired in Lima wrote:
Comet wrote:
tupacperu wrote:
sbaustin wrote:
gerard wrote:I think you'll find that price increases and inflation will quickly cancel out any exchange rate gains.


If there is more unemployment and a strong dollar, that means salaries will go down or stay stagnant and as you point out, costs may go up, but probably most business owners as long as the government doesn't try to nationalize may come out ahead if they earn dollars here in Peru. Anyways, every person's situation is different, and I would rather see Peru get a good leader than someone who may destroy the country (just stating a general opinion and am not endorsing any particular candidate).


Nationalizing some industries are a benefit to consumers, cheaper electricity and utilities.
The World Bank even suggested that some industries should be nationalized.

Advantages to nationalize:

Private firms may decide to only offer profitable services.
Benefits of National Collective Action.
Ability to Equalize Resources
Weakens potential special interest control

If the business is owned by a foreigner, there is the danger.
The private sector may not have enough capital to invest in the business. The private sector also find it difficult to borrow loans from international organisation such as the World Bank or the International monetary fund


Absolute nonsense...tell me ONE..One single country where nationalizing businesses has not lead to; more poverty, lower wages, lower standards, poorer economy, less investment, less exports.ad-infinitum....every country which has de-nationalized industry has done so because it doesn´t work and never will.

It should be noted that at 33%, VZ has the highest inflation rate in the world currently.



WRONG AGAIN....the life of the poor has not improved at all in China..but surprisingly enough the rich have got richer and corruption is rife.....I have yet to see a single sound piece of logic or rational amongst your propoganda. nationalization has always been a disaster in every country without a SINGLE exception.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby renodante » Sun Apr 10, 2011 5:49 pm

well, humala is definitely going to be president so prepare for the shitstorm people.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby MarcoPE » Sun Apr 10, 2011 6:31 pm

renodante wrote:well, humala is definitely going to be president so prepare for the shitstorm people.


Well, that is not necessarily true! If you add up the percentages from the other candidates voting for the more right or center, I will figure they will vote for PPK or Keiko (most likely Keiko) in the run-off and then the game changes....let us hope and pray!.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Remigius » Sun Apr 10, 2011 6:57 pm

Yeah, this outcome was already expected. PPK and Toledo have opened the way for Keiko to the second round. In the second round voters of PPK, Toledo, Casteñeda and APRA have little choice then to vote for Keiko, just like García was chosen in 2006 over Humala. Unfortunately, in a country where the majority is poor with little education, you cannot expect wise decisions.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby mahou123 » Sun Apr 10, 2011 6:58 pm

Now all the supporters of "moderates" will vote for Keiko in the second round (terrified by Humala), so she should beat Humala pretty comfortably.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Remigius » Sun Apr 10, 2011 7:01 pm

Isn't it by the way ironic Humala has its HQ in San Isidro? One of the most expensive districts in Lima/Peru?
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby seb2010 » Sun Apr 10, 2011 9:46 pm

Remigius wrote:Isn't it by the way ironic Humala has its HQ in San Isidro? One of the most expensive districts in Lima/Peru?


Yes, and also he has spent the most on his campaign....someone quite wealthy is backing him. He is a liar. I guess most are....but I'm afraid of him. Listen to his lastest comments from today...coming across quite moderate and mild. Trying to appeal to as many people as possible.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby fanning » Sun Apr 10, 2011 10:10 pm

Peru elects presidents like they play futbal. Instead of playing together ( Toledo and Castañeda back PPK, and ask their voters to back PPK ), they play till the end, and loose ..

If they pass the ball just before the goal, maybe they didn't make the goal, but as a group ( moderate right ), they win. But Peru still is a bunch of machos, who prefer to loose, than give the other the shot.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby adrian Thorne » Sun Apr 10, 2011 10:25 pm

Tupacperu you are correct. It is 10.20pm and the polls are showing 30.5% for Humala. Sorry my maths are very bad I thought that ment less than 1/3 of Peru want him. I suppose the majority do not want him
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby renodante » Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:50 am

MarcoPE wrote:
renodante wrote:well, humala is definitely going to be president so prepare for the shitstorm people.


Well, that is not necessarily true! If you add up the percentages from the other candidates voting for the more right or center, I will figure they will vote for PPK or Keiko (most likely Keiko) in the run-off and then the game changes....let us hope and pray!.



true. i guess i'm a pessimist my nature.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby adrian Thorne » Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:13 am

euroman wrote:
americorps wrote:Humala has already talked about closing, taking for the state or otherwise reorganizing companies such as LAN, mining companies and other foreign owned operations.

Members of his party have made very threatening remarks about foreigners in Peru.


All eyes are turning to Venezuela and what happened there when Humala´s puppet master took over and how that hit tourism, international corporations and foreigners.

So I was wondering if anyone is considering joining the potential exodus?


If Humala doesn't want us her anymore, is he gonna pay our $1 fine for overstaying?

If things are going to change for foreigners then it will only be in Lima. We can't see the smokesignals that far in La Selva, that the government will be sending.

And there's very little political interest in the provinces. Politics and government is a Lima thing. In the provinces we do things like we want to do and we have are own laws.



Euroman have you given any thought to the fact that the dollar a day fine is because you have flouted the law and as a result, if Humala succeeds, he could send you for a long stay at yet another address
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Alan » Mon Apr 11, 2011 8:59 am

americorps wrote:There is already companies making plans to close and or relocate to Chile, Argentina, Colombia or Brazil if Humala gets elected.

Humala has already talked about closing, taking for the state or otherwise reorganizing companies such as LAN, mining companies and other foreign owned operations.

Members of his party have made very threatening remarks about foreigners in Peru.

Tourist operators are also reflecting on what might happen.

All eyes are turning to Venezuela and what happened there when Humala´s puppet master took over and how that hit tourism, international corporations and foreigners.

So I was wondering if anyone is considering joining the potential exodus?


I heard a joke the other day.... Humala went to visit Colegio Markham ( a top notch, and expensive school, mostly for the children of Lima´s upper crust). The kids, in a tremendous show of support, were all chanting "HU-MA-LA! HU-MA-LA!". Bemuzed, a reporter asked one of the teachers why the kids of wealthy families were showing such enthusiasm for Humala´s campaign. The teacher replied "Their parents all told them that if Humala wins, they´d be moving to Miami".
:lol:
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby adrian Thorne » Mon Apr 11, 2011 10:30 am

I remember nationalization in the UK and I tell you it does not work. Rampant inflation, One of the largest unemployment figures ever known, Nationalized companies running at massive losses even though there was large subsidies. I can remember paying 15% interest on my mortgage with inflation going through the roof and no benifits. There was no family luxuries such as a family cars and the workers were constantly stiking for more pay. Three day working weeks and power cuts and time without water. It took Maggy Thatcher, the Right wing, iron lady to put it right. Since those days the average Brit has a good standard of living, two family cars and the ability to have a share portfolio. I agree there is a world recession, which I believe may have been engineered, but that is another story. Once again a right wing party in collaberation with a middle party are busy putting it right. People dont like it but it is putting the Great back in to Britain.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Retired in Lima » Mon Apr 11, 2011 10:42 am

Alan wrote:
I heard a joke the other day.... Humala went to visit Colegio Markham ( a top notch, and expensive school, mostly for the children of Lima´s upper crust). The kids, in a tremendous show of support, were all chanting "HU-MA-LA! HU-MA-LA!". Bemuzed, a reporter asked one of the teachers why the kids of wealthy families were showing such enthusiasm for Humala´s campaign. The teacher replied "Their parents all told them that if Humala wins, they´d be moving to Miami".
:lol:

Strange he went to Colegio Markham when we all know his children are enrolled in the British International school HB!
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Mon Apr 11, 2011 10:54 am

Retired in Lima wrote:
Alan wrote:
I heard a joke the other day.... Humala went to visit Colegio Markham ( a top notch, and expensive school, mostly for the children of Lima´s upper crust). The kids, in a tremendous show of support, were all chanting "HU-MA-LA! HU-MA-LA!". Bemuzed, a reporter asked one of the teachers why the kids of wealthy families were showing such enthusiasm for Humala´s campaign. The teacher replied "Their parents all told them that if Humala wins, they´d be moving to Miami".
:lol:

Strange he went to Colegio Markham when we all know his children are enrolled in the British International school HB!



If They move to Miami they would be lower crust, their kids would have to go to pubic schools and they would be in the unemployment line like many Americans.

That is why they live in Lima :-).

So they would rather be poor in the USA, than to drop middle class in Lima (hehehe)?


How aware were people (expats) when many felt earlier in the election campaign that Humala was out.
Yes, in Miraflores and San Isidro people live in a vaccum. The simple fact that Villiran a populist, won the election in Lima, should have been an indicator of where the voting population leanings.

The pulse of Peru is not in San Isidro nor Miraflores, it is in the provinces where people do not have stock portfolios nor live on pristine streets, nor have running water. People outside of Lima worry more about a meal on the table, jobs and an education for their kids. As Peru developed economically, prices went up, fuel went up, food prices rose and rents went up, so it comes as not surprise that the poor are now the working poor.

People forget that Humala lost in 2006 47% to 53% to Garcia. Certainly was not a landslide.

The major focus in Peru has been on investment in people who stock portfolios and real estate in Miraflores/ San Isidro (upper crust).

If Keiko is in the second round with Humala , it would not matter to me who won. They both are for the people of Peru, not just the wealthy. If Alberto Fujimori brought Peru back from disaster, I am sure his daughter has good counsel.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Mon Apr 11, 2011 11:21 am

adrian Thorne wrote:I remember nationalization in the UK and I tell you it does not work. Rampant inflation, One of the largest unemployment figures ever known, Nationalized companies running at massive losses even though there was large subsidies. I can remember paying 15% interest on my mortgage with inflation going through the roof and no benifits. There was no family luxuries such as a family cars and the workers were constantly stiking for more pay. Three day working weeks and power cuts and time without water. It took Maggy Thatcher, the Right wing, iron lady to put it right. Since those days the average Brit has a good standard of living, two family cars and the ability to have a share portfolio. I agree there is a world recession, which I believe may have been engineered, but that is another story. Once again a right wing party in collaberation with a middle party are busy putting it right. People dont like it but it is putting the Great back in to Britain.



Sounds like the world economy today (hehehe). What is different now?
Nationalization vs Privatization (unregulated). The USA is printing money and way over it's debt limit and about to default on debt for the first time since it was founded. Sounds familiar? Used to be Latin American countries defaulting (we have come full circle).
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby TechDude » Mon Apr 11, 2011 11:46 am

tupacperu wrote:If Keiko is in the second round with Humala , it would not matter to me who won. They both are for the people of Peru, not just the wealthy.


I don't buy that, for what I've seen, PPK would be the better choice since it would open the doors to investors (foreign and domestic) not to mention the normalization of businesses and taxation which would generate capital for the state which in turn would bring better infrastructure and social programs, Humala and Keiko are capitalizing on the dirt old "we are poor and oppressed" statement repeated ad nauseum by any "revolutionary warrior for the people" in latin america, but in 2011 that sounds archaic, why would you want to close your doors to global investors? why you want to stop progress?

You do need the wealthy, because they have the resources (money) to generate jobs and businesses, stop the wealthy from investing and the result is a poor, chaotic and retrograde country, that's pretty much latin america's history, not because they are "oppressed" is because they WANT to stay that way, in this case if Peru wanted to be a successful country and start getting rid of the label "3rd world country" Humala and Keiko wouldn't even be considered candidates, however, one of them will become the next president and drag the country back 50 years.

And speaking of wealthy again, wouldn't businesses and jobs create new and more wealthy people?, tell me Humala or Keiko are going to even consider that.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Remigius » Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:16 pm

tupacperu wrote:If Keiko is in the second round with Humala , it would not matter to me who won. They both are for the people of Peru, not just the wealthy


tupacperu wrote:If humala is wins my $$$ is stronger. When i lived in Peru in early 2000s the sol was about 4 to $1.00, Life was good rent ,housing was cheap and crime was lower. I vote my pockets.


It's not about Peru you care, it's about your own pockets and the sad thing is you don't even know who you're rooting for. You long back to the days of Fujimori after he opened the markets, allowed massive import of products and welcomed back investors with open arms. Your wonderful life in the early 2000 was possible because Fujimori corrected the ideology of Garcías first term and that of Velasco, so I understand you want to go back to the days of Fujimori, but Humala is the antichrist of Fujimori's ideology. It's amazing you don't see that.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby adrian Thorne » Mon Apr 11, 2011 2:31 pm

tupacperu wrote:Sounds like the world economy today (hehehe). What is different now?
Nationalization vs Privatization (unregulated). The USA is printing money and way over it's debt limit and about to default on debt for the first time since it was founded. Sounds familiar? Used to be Latin American countries defaulting (we have come full circle).


Tupacperu I admire you tenasity and standing up for your beliefs. You know as well as I Peru cannot support people who are not providing taxes and other income for the country. Buying the poor and needy with a kilo of rice may buy a vote, but does not cure a nations poverty problem. Does he have a plan or big pockets?
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby fanning » Mon Apr 11, 2011 3:52 pm

Here you have a good example of how the propaganda is changing the message of Humala in something in favor of Shining Path, while in fact his speech was against Shining path.

http://www.rpp.com.pe/2011-04-06-difund ... 52581.html

And the original video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSGAJ21r1go
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Mon Apr 11, 2011 4:57 pm

adrian Thorne wrote:
tupacperu wrote:Sounds like the world economy today (hehehe). What is different now?
Nationalization vs Privatization (unregulated). The USA is printing money and way over it's debt limit and about to default on debt for the first time since it was founded. Sounds familiar? Used to be Latin American countries defaulting (we have come full circle).


Tupacperu I admire you tenasity and standing up for your beliefs. You know as well as I Peru cannot support people who are not providing taxes and other income for the country. Buying the poor and needy with a kilo of rice may buy a vote, but does not cure a nations poverty problem. Does he have a plan or big pockets?



It is not tenasity and standing up for your beliefs.
It is about being in touch, not living in Lima in a Bubble, but traveling and living in the provinces. Conversations with uncles/aunts, cousins and nephews/nieces (politics and economic).

Thanks to my Tio Jose in Lambayeque, we have had deep conversation over the years at family gatherings and many relatives chimed in. You could feel the sense of desperation (working poor), made me feel helpless.

Peru has had 10 years to address this issue and even in this election none of the leading candidates took a stand for the poor, it was about the stock market and economic development.
No nation in the world has completely erradicated poverty, but these are poor people (Peru) who just want an equal opportunity not a handout. They do not want to be cogs in a wheel in a factory, they want a better life for their children like we all do.

The problem is the economic model is setup to keep the poor (working poor), poor.
The low wage working get a job for 600 soles per month, but inflation,housing and rising prices of food will cost them every bit of that 600 soles. They are now in the same position they started, like a gerbel in a wheel.

The instutitional and govermental establishments in Peru are out of touch with the population of Peru. This is why many are taking a step backwards now, financially (portfolios and profits). There has to be social responsiblilty and justices for those who do not have a voice. The major pro-economic candidate spoke for a few wealthy Peruvians and not for all.

You can see what happened to PPK when the vote moved out of Lima. The provinces spoke.
Things are not so great outside of Lima.

Face the reality, a gov't is only as good as it poorest citizen:

Kuczynski andf Toledo recognizes to late
(Livingin Peru.com)
Save that the foreign ballots are very much in my favor … it’s almost obvious that the second round is between Keiko and Ollanta,” Kuczynski said.

He also commented that Humala appeals to Peru’s poor and disenfranchised.

“In Peru we need to improve the social situation and what Ollanta promises is attractive for a group of people that is more than 30 percent, which is equal to the same percentage of those without running water in their homes. This [current] government and the previous one have tried to reduce poverty, but this is something that takes time,” Kuczynski said.



Toledo recognizes this:

Peru has expressed its anger ... over economic growth without the distribution of benefits. Ten years of growth and it’s not reaching [enough] people,” Toledo said. “We want Peruvians to be sure that we understood the message the country is sending us. Obviously it’s not the result we wanted, but that’s democracy.”

Toledo’s political party Perú Posible, which won the third most seats in Congress, has yet to declare which candidate they would support in the run-off.
Last edited by tupacperu on Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby adrian Thorne » Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:05 pm

I hate to say but it is the rich who invest in the poor. What do you intend to do for your fellow man?
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Comet » Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:08 pm

TechDude wrote:
tupacperu wrote:If Keiko is in the second round with Humala , it would not matter to me who won. They both are for the people of Peru, not just the wealthy.


I don't buy that, for what I've seen, PPK would be the better choice since it would open the doors to investors (foreign and domestic) not to mention the normalization of businesses and taxation which would generate capital for the state which in turn would bring better infrastructure and social programs, Humala and Keiko are capitalizing on the dirt old "we are poor and oppressed" statement repeated ad nauseum by any "revolutionary warrior for the people" in latin america, but in 2011 that sounds archaic, why would you want to close your doors to global investors? why you want to stop progress?

You do need the wealthy, because they have the resources (money) to generate jobs and businesses, stop the wealthy from investing and the result is a poor, chaotic and retrograde country, that's pretty much latin america's history, not because they are "oppressed" is because they WANT to stay that way, in this case if Peru wanted to be a successful country and start getting rid of the label "3rd world country" Humala and Keiko wouldn't even be considered candidates, however, one of them will become the next president and drag the country back 50 years.

And speaking of wealthy again, wouldn't businesses and jobs create new and more wealthy people?, tell me Humala or Keiko are going to even consider that.


WEll said
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby tupacperu » Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:18 pm

adrian Thorne wrote:I hate to say but it is the rich who invest in the poor. What do you intend to do for your fellow man?


You really believe that? That is rather a macho mentality as it pertains to the poor.
It is like an abusive spouse telling his wife, You will never amount to anything without me or my money.
Humans have survivial instincts just as animals do. They can find a way to live in diginity, without being force to cow-tow to the wealthy owner.


A King is not a King without a Kingdom.
A Slave is no longer a slave if he does not submit to slavery.

People are dying every day in Protest throughout the world for social justice. it is no different in Peru.
The rich have to to be commited to social responsibility and take care of those who give them a fine living.

The point is , Peru will continue to have natural resources and companies are willing to accept less of a profit. How much profit is good enough for Corporations, as the Hunt Bros put it in the late 70s.

"how much is enough?, One more dollar thatn I have in my pocket""
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Re: Who might consider leaving if Humala wins?

Postby Comet » Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:24 pm

tupacperu wrote:
Retired in Lima wrote:
Alan wrote:
I heard a joke the other day.... Humala went to visit Colegio Markham ( a top notch, and expensive school, mostly for the children of Lima´s upper crust). The kids, in a tremendous show of support, were all chanting "HU-MA-LA! HU-MA-LA!". Bemuzed, a reporter asked one of the teachers why the kids of wealthy families were showing such enthusiasm for Humala´s campaign. The teacher replied "Their parents all told them that if Humala wins, they´d be moving to Miami".
:lol:

Strange he went to Colegio Markham when we all know his children are enrolled in the British International school HB!



If They move to Miami they would be lower crust, their kids would have to go to pubic schools and they would be in the unemployment line like many Americans.

That is why they live in Lima :-).

So they would rather be poor in the USA, than to drop middle class in Lima (hehehe)?


How aware were people (expats) when many felt earlier in the election campaign that Humala was out.
Yes, in Miraflores and San Isidro people live in a vaccum. The simple fact that Villiran a populist, won the election in Lima, should have been an indicator of where the voting population leanings.

The pulse of Peru is not in San Isidro nor Miraflores, it is in the provinces where people do not have stock portfolios nor live on pristine streets, nor have running water. People outside of Lima worry more about a meal on the table, jobs and an education for their kids. As Peru developed economically, prices went up, fuel went up, food prices rose and rents went up, so it comes as not surprise that the poor are now the working poor.

People forget that Humala lost in 2006 47% to 53% to Garcia. Certainly was not a landslide.

The major focus in Peru has been on investment in people who stock portfolios and real estate in Miraflores/ San Isidro (upper crust).

If Keiko is in the second round with Humala , it would not matter to me who won. They both are for the people of Peru, not just the wealthy. If Alberto Fujimori brought Peru back from disaster, I am sure his daughter has good counsel.


Hmm first of all...NO politicians are "for the people"..politicians do it for power nothing else...Humala will take Peru back to the 70s, curb free speech, control the media, drive out foreign investment etc etc
Fujimori..will likely have the most corrupt government since her father......you say you don´t live in Peru ...it looks like you will shortly have better reasons than ever to stay out .
I don´t suppose you are Arthur Scargil in disguise are you? :wink:

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