We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

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tupacperu
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We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby tupacperu » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:07 pm

Maybe be I will be able to buy that Apartment in Lima soon (:

http://gestion.pe/2012/08/20/inmobiliar ... ia-2010371

We are halfway to a housing bubble?
Monday, August 20, 2012

INMOBILIARIA1407: 00
The gap between the growing trend of housing prices, mortgage loans and Peruvian GDP may indicate that the housing sector is entering an explosive path. "The probability is 50%," says Carlos Casas, a former deputy economy minister.


Homes recommends the banking system to keep control of their security. (Video: Paulo Rivas Peña)




Maria Claudia de la Barra
[email protected]

In recent years, it has seen a significant increase in the price of real estate, and its rate of expansion in Maharashtra, for example, has remained above 20% per year since the second quarter of 2011, according to the Central Reserve Bank (BCR).

While this behavior responds to increased economic growth, and therefore revenue, the trend is "worrying", as compared with that presented the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in recent years, says Carlos Casas, a former deputy economy minister.

In that sense, Holiday explains that since 2006 the upward trend of housing prices has been approximately 4% per quarter, the mortgage loans of about 5%, while GDP has done only by 1.5 %. It also indicates that the prices of construction materials have increased at a rate less than 1%.

"These gaps are of concern because they may indicate people are buying houses for speculation, given the lack of profitability of other financial instruments, such as stock," the well head of the Economics Department of the University of the Pacific.

"The possibility that people are speculating in the Construction is 50%, so that would be the same chance that we are entering a bubble," he estimated.

Ensures that although this behavior may also be responding to an unmet demand in the property sector, the likelihood that housing demand is only for purposes of profit, can "lead" a big problem that must be controlled.

"The problem is that we could be at the start of a bubble which we control and give the necessary signals to the market to avoid a problem that occurs after all have to regret," says Casas.

Pricing? Still low?
According to Casas, one of the 'arguments' Construction sector to explain the behavior of prices accelerated upward is that Peru would still have room to grow, because their prices are still below those in the region. However, believes that this should be corrected according to each country's respective incomes.

"The house prices in Peru are 20% below Bogota and Santiago, for example. However, it should be noted that these countries have a higher per capita income. That is why we must be careful because the measure is not clearly shown, "reveals Homes.

More regulation
Regarding the growth of mortgage loans, which would triple the trend quarterly GDP (5% versus 1.5%), Casas recommends the banking system to keep control of their security and improve their reporting mechanisms for how far should grow in response to a real unmet.

"While the share of mortgage loans in the portfolio of banks (14%) is still low compared with other countries, the speed at which it has been growing concern. It must have adequate control over the granting of these credits and analyze, if indeed, your destiny is to meet housing needs, "


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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby chi chi » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:17 pm

I think that you better buy a house in the US. Prices are very low there and can only go up.

We are going to Las Vegas and Kansas later this year and are considering to buy a house there. Kansas sounds nice and very cheap.
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby Alpineprince » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:06 pm

I do not think it is possible to be "halfway to a housing bubble" or be halfway to anything that does not have predefined limits. I believe the article is saying there is in the (authors) opinion a 50% chance that we are entering the bubble stage? With Australia declaring the end to the resource boom in 2013 or 2014, there should be some repercussions in the housing market and I imagine that in and of itself will prevent a bubble from forming. Without a secondary mortgage market and most deals still being done in cash, the 4% quarterly growth seems to be sustainable under the CURRENT economic conditions. Personally, I feel the appreciation rates in properties will be more pronounced in sector C&D and am trying to re-position myself in that regard. Predicting tops or bottoms in ANY market is a fools game and with that thought in mind, I would recommend Chi chi look into Leavenworth, KS!
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby falconagain » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:27 pm

The problem is not the Peruvian bubble but the American real estate market.
Nothing has been done to pay the debt or try to negotiate a settlement. This
will make the whole country go into a deeper recession and stagnate home
values for at least 20 years.
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby chi chi » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:29 pm

Alpineprince wrote:I would recommend Chi chi look into Leavenworth, KS!


Thanks for the info.

Houses in the US are even cheaper than in Peru.

http://www.homefinder.com/KS/Leavenwort ... _10_Avenue

http://www.homefinder.com/KS/Leavenwort ... 3_Kiowa_St
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby Icachico » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:14 am

They even have free housing in Leavenworth for certain residents.
Three hots and a cot! :mrgreen:

http://www.bop.gov/locations/institutions/lvn/index.jsp
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby caliguy » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:49 am

chi chi wrote:
Alpineprince wrote:I would recommend Chi chi look into Leavenworth, KS!


Thanks for the info.

Houses in the US are even cheaper than in Peru.

http://www.homefinder.com/KS/Leavenwort ... _10_Avenue

http://www.homefinder.com/KS/Leavenwort ... 3_Kiowa_St


lots of warm-hearted farm girls too! the prices of those homes are comparable to the price of a SUV.
every place has it's own spirit. you just need to tune into it.
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby Alpineprince » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:02 am

For a little more you could get a SUV and a small trailer and spend you summers in Kansas and your winters in Las Vegas!
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby chi chi » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:16 pm

Alpineprince wrote:For a little more you could get a SUV and a small trailer and spend you summers in Kansas and your winters in Las Vegas!


Thank's for the idea. I am considering that. RV parks are all over the US.
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby roddd » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:37 am

see how many times you can bounce across the border and back
before emigration comes looking for you in the US of A :D
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby rama0929 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:16 am

tupacperu wrote:Maybe be I will be able to buy that Apartment in Lima soon (:


How's AZ treating you, anyway?
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby chi chi » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:30 pm

roddd wrote:see how many times you can bounce across the border and back
before emigration comes looking for you in the US of A :D


We are intending to spend there only a few months a year.

Anyway, I borderhopped for years when working illegally in the US (like everybody does).
I overstayed my 90 days stamp often and never got problems when getting back.

The easiest border is the Canadian border. I often sneaked into the US without passing immigration. There are 1000's of dirtroads between the US and Canada where there's no immigration checkpoint.

Friends once stuck me inside a hay bale on the back of their chevy pick up to get me accross the border between Winnipeg and Grand Forks in North Dakota. That was very funny.
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Immigration = discrimination
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby caliguy » Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:01 pm

chi chi wrote:
roddd wrote:see how many times you can bounce across the border and back
before emigration comes looking for you in the US of A :D


We are intending to spend there only a few months a year.

Anyway, I borderhopped for years when working illegally in the US (like everybody does).
I overstayed my 90 days stamp often and never got problems when getting back.

The easiest border is the Canadian border. I often sneaked into the US without passing immigration. There are 1000's of dirtroads between the US and Canada where there's no immigration checkpoint.

Friends once stuck me inside a hay bale on the back of their chevy pick up to get me accross the border between Winnipeg and Grand Forks in North Dakota. That was very funny.
333.jpg

36.jpg


you are a well traveled man chi chi :D




Immigration = discrimination
every place has it's own spirit. you just need to tune into it.
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chi chi
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby chi chi » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:09 pm

caliguy wrote:
Friends once stuck me inside a hay bale on the back of their chevy pick up to get me accross the border between Winnipeg and Grand Forks in North Dakota. That was very funny.
333.jpg

36.jpg


you are a well traveled man chi chi :D
[/quote]

US immigration corrupt. Many immigration officers in the US work together with Mexican coyotes to get chickens accros the border. They have too. Not working together with the Mexican cartels means death penalty for them and their family.
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby tupacperu » Mon Sep 03, 2012 4:09 pm

chi chi wrote:I think that you better buy a house in the US. Prices are very low there and can only go up.

We are going to Las Vegas and Kansas later this year and are considering to buy a house there. Kansas sounds nice and very cheap.


Already bought a house in Phoenix. Prices are up a bit. I was offered auite a bit of money for my home in Pimentel Beach Peru. A Chilean Company wants to build Luxury Apts there. I am seriously thinking about selling and coming back in post bubble to pick up vacation property.
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby tupacperu » Mon Sep 03, 2012 4:14 pm

There is the a high possibility of an emerging market bubble.
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/emerging-markets-bubble/
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby tupacperu » Mon Sep 03, 2012 4:17 pm

SBS taking action to prevent Bubble.
you can translate in google
http://m.gestion.pe/movil/noticia/2011243
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby tupacperu » Mon Sep 03, 2012 4:30 pm

rama0929 wrote:
tupacperu wrote:Maybe be I will be able to buy that Apartment in Lima soon (:


How's AZ treating you, anyway?


Hi Rama, sorry for the delay. We are back in Philly. Took a dream job there. Renting my home in Phoenix for $200 above the mortgage. The value in Phoenix is up $13k. So we gave ourselves a raise by moving back to our home in Philly, letting some one else pay our mortgage. Plan to return to Phoenix in8 years. Trying to bring the mortgage down below $500 per month. It is a gorgeous house 3100 sq ft , 5 bedroom bought it for $160k down from 400k in 2007 (new home). Plan to use some proceeds from Pimentel home to pay down the mortgage.
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby tupacperu » Mon Sep 03, 2012 4:35 pm

Alpineprince wrote:I do not think it is possible to be "halfway to a housing bubble" or be halfway to anything that does not have predefined limits. I believe the article is saying there is in the (authors) opinion a 50% chance that we are entering the bubble stage? With Australia declaring the end to the resource boom in 2013 or 2014, there should be some repercussions in the housing market and I imagine that in and of itself will prevent a bubble from forming. Without a secondary mortgage market and most deals still being done in cash, the 4% quarterly growth seems to be sustainable under the CURRENT economic conditions. Personally, I feel the appreciation rates in properties will be more pronounced in sector C&D and am trying to re-position myself in that regard. Predicting tops or bottoms in ANY market is a fools game and with that thought in mind, I would recommend Chi chi look into Leavenworth, KS!



Currently there is too much hot money/speculators in Peru. I was checking houses in Pueblo Libre 2400 sq ft $500k.
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby rama0929 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 10:41 pm

tupacperu wrote:Hi Rama, sorry for the delay. We are back in Philly. Took a dream job there. Renting my home in Phoenix for $200 above the mortgage. The value in Phoenix is up $13k. So we gave ourselves a raise by moving back to our home in Philly, letting some one else pay our mortgage. Plan to return to Phoenix in8 years. Trying to bring the mortgage down below $500 per month. It is a gorgeous house 3100 sq ft , 5 bedroom bought it for $160k down from 400k in 2007 (new home). Plan to use some proceeds from Pimentel home to pay down the mortgage.


No need to apologize, life gets in the way of things sometimes.

You're in Philly now? I moved across the river to NJ. Still trying to investigate opportunities in Peru, but I just may say to hell with it and bring the gf up here.

Glad to see all's well 8)
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby tupacperu » Tue Sep 18, 2012 5:29 pm

rama0929 wrote:
tupacperu wrote:Hi Rama, sorry for the delay. We are back in Philly. Took a dream job there. Renting my home in Phoenix for $200 above the mortgage. The value in Phoenix is up $13k. So we gave ourselves a raise by moving back to our home in Philly, letting some one else pay our mortgage. Plan to return to Phoenix in8 years. Trying to bring the mortgage down below $500 per month. It is a gorgeous house 3100 sq ft , 5 bedroom bought it for $160k down from 400k in 2007 (new home). Plan to use some proceeds from Pimentel home to pay down the mortgage.


No need to apologize, life gets in the way of things sometimes.

You're in Philly now? I moved across the river to NJ. Still trying to investigate opportunities in Peru, but I just may say to hell with it and bring the gf up here.

Glad to see all's well 8)



Yeah Peru may no longer be a rtirement option. Maybe 3 months out of the year :).
No longer profitable to even do business. My wife wanted to open a cupcake shop, the business rentals are sky high. We looked into kiosk, nothing inexpensive available.
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Re: We are halfway to a housing bubble? Peru

Postby rama0929 » Tue Sep 18, 2012 6:49 pm

tupacperu wrote:Yeah Peru may no longer be a rtirement option. Maybe 3 months out of the year :).
No longer profitable to even do business. My wife wanted to open a cupcake shop, the business rentals are sky high. We looked into kiosk, nothing inexpensive available.


There's always the provinces 8)

I don't even have to do a full year, I can easily become a snowbird :D

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