Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

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Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Retired in Lima » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:53 am

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101305199
Dr. Roubini believes the global economy will have modest growth (1.9%), but Peru is among the economies named that will experience much higher growth!


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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby chi chi » Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:24 pm

The higher the economy grows, the deeper it can fall.

The gap between rich and poor is getting bigger and bigger.

Wages stay lousy (more than half of the population earns less than the oficial minimum wage) but prices are rising quickly. A large number of daily products are allready cheaper in Europe and the US. The perfect récipe for an economic crisis.

And there are presidential elections in 2016. The next president can pull the country down the drain like what happened several times in the past.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Alan » Fri Jan 03, 2014 5:20 pm

chi chi wrote:The higher the economy grows, the deeper it can fall.


Okay.. tough to argue with that logic, but what does that really mean? That the country shouldn´t progress?

chi chi wrote:The gap between rich and poor is getting bigger and bigger.

The poor and lower middle class are the ones who have had the greatest relative increase in their wages.
chi chi wrote:

Wages stay lousy (more than half of the population earns less than the oficial minimum wage) but prices are rising quickly. A large number of daily products are allready cheaper in Europe and the US. The perfect récipe for an economic crisis.



Inflation in Peru is hovering around 3% and has been close to 2.5% average for the past 10 years.

chi chi wrote:And there are presidential elections in 2016. The next president can pull the country down the drain like what happened several times in the past.


The past 3 elections in Peru have been democratic. Why a sudden turn around?
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby TShadow » Sat Jan 04, 2014 3:40 pm

The past 3 elections in Peru have been democratic. Why a sudden turn around?


True, but actually there are many things happening, some openly many under the hood. Speaking with Alan Garcia he also feels that democracy in Peru is having a very bad moment and is in danger.


Inflation in Peru is hovering around 3% and has been close to 2.5% average for the past 10 years.


Those are official numbers, if you look at how they determine this numbers, you would agree, but the reality is different and the real numbers are much higher.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby craig » Sun Jan 05, 2014 12:02 am

Alan wrote:
chi chi wrote:And there are presidential elections in 2016. The next president can pull the country down the drain like what happened several times in the past.

The past 3 elections in Peru have been democratic. Why a sudden turn around?

"Democratic elections" are what most commonly flushes a country down the crapper. It would not be unusual or any kind of turn around for it to happen again.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Alan » Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:46 pm

craig wrote:
Alan wrote:
chi chi wrote:And there are presidential elections in 2016. The next president can pull the country down the drain like what happened several times in the past.

The past 3 elections in Peru have been democratic. Why a sudden turn around?

"Democratic elections" are what most commonly flushes a country down the crapper. It would not be unusual or any kind of turn around for it to happen again.


That's very true; anything can happen and sometimes does. But I would think that every consecutive democratic election brings a country closer and closer to democracy being considered the status quo, and lessening the risk of a sudden change in direction. Sure, there can be turn arounds - but democracy generally fosters stability, and stability begets a democratic process.

Of course.. we could argue all night about what constitutes "democracy", but that's fodder for another thread. :D
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby craig » Mon Jan 06, 2014 7:48 am

Alan wrote:... democracy generally fosters stability, and stability begets a democratic process.

That is a belief that is commonly mooted about by the court "intellectuals" of our day because it serves to buttress the positions of the powerful. But is is utterly false and refuted by even a casual consultation of the historical record (starting from the case of Athens itself). Democracies always devolve into chaos, social destruction and endless warfare terminating in dictatorship.

How many times does democracy have to produce an Odria, Velasco and Fujimori, or a Hugo Chavez, or an Evo Morales, or a Rafael Correa, or a Peron, Menem and the Kirchners, or an Allende and Pinochet, or a Stroessner, or a Hitler, or a Mussolini, or a Napoleon, or a Robespierre, or a Julius Caesar, or a Pericles, ad infinitum before you realize that tyrannical social chaos followed by autocracy is the natural and inevitable end result of democracy?

Certainly, the Founding Fathers of the US considered democracy to be an unstable, unjust and tyrannical system of government. That is why they tried (although they failed) to create a constitutional republic so constrained that it could never degenerate into democracy.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:43 am

I take the side of the Bears. there are indicators within the GDP that shows weakening, GDP Growth estimates have been revised down to 5.0% compared to 6.3 percent the previous year.

What the numbers say:

'The delinquency rate for credit card loans rose last November to 5.86%, the highest level recorded by Asbanc (December 2005) period. Since February last year this indicator has shown an increasing trend.

The GDP is driven by domestic consumption:

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru on Friday lowered its outlook for economic growth for 2013 and 2014, as activity in the Andean nation has slowed because of weaker domestic demand and a decline in metal prices.

Peru is still touting mining project, which metal prices are volatile. there is a push for investment in other sectors, which Peru has failed to respond.

THe other day in the news: (gestion.pe)

The strategy considers SNMPE MEF to accelerate mining investment should be extended to other sectors.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:47 am

Alan wrote:
chi chi wrote:The higher the economy grows, the deeper it can fall.


Okay.. tough to argue with that logic, but what does that really mean? That the country shouldn´t progress?

chi chi wrote:The gap between rich and poor is getting bigger and bigger.

The poor and lower middle class are the ones who have had the greatest relative increase in their wages.
chi chi wrote:

Wages stay lousy (more than half of the population earns less than the oficial minimum wage) but prices are rising quickly. A large number of daily products are allready cheaper in Europe and the US. The perfect récipe for an economic crisis.



Inflation in Peru is hovering around 3% and has been close to 2.5% average for the past 10 years.

chi chi wrote:And there are presidential elections in 2016. The next president can pull the country down the drain like what happened several times in the past.


The past 3 elections in Peru have been democratic. Why a sudden turn around?


I agree CHI CHI
Peru is growing in a centralized manner. NO Diversification of investment. Peru is building a house of cards base on domestic consumption and mining and construction=housing. This is a weak base for the economy.



chi chi wrote:
The gap between rich and poor is getting bigger and bigger.

The poor and lower middle class are the ones who have had the greatest relative increase in their wages.



THere are no wage increases vertically. just employment of more people horizontally, which is the mission to stamp out poverty. But all they will become is the working POOR with a lot of debt. The increase in wealth in the middle class is due to credit (negative savings).
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:52 am

craig wrote:
Alan wrote:
chi chi wrote:And there are presidential elections in 2016. The next president can pull the country down the drain like what happened several times in the past.

The past 3 elections in Peru have been democratic. Why a sudden turn around?
.
"Democratic elections" are what most commonly flushes a country down the crapper. It would not be unusual or any kind of turn around for it to happen again.

Democracy does not always equate to prosperity . Take a look at China's economy and it's effect on the global economy. Also take a look at the US and it Boom and Bust Cycles. No guarantees
Last edited by tupacperu on Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:55 am

Retired in Lima wrote:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101305199
Dr. Roubini believes the global economy will have modest growth (1.9%), but Peru is among the economies named that will experience much higher growth!


Do not forget about the stimulus/QE. When it is drawn back, no one knows the effect. But one effect mentioned, is Capital Flight. Pulling money out of emerging economies because they no longer are able to borrow in US dollars at profitable rates. repatriating their money.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Retired in Lima » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:57 am

tupacperu wrote:
Retired in Lima wrote:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101305199
Dr. Roubini believes the global economy will have modest growth (1.9%), but Peru is among the economies named that will experience much higher growth!


Do not forget about the stimulus/QE. When it is drawn back, no one knows the effect. But one effect mentioned, is Capital Flight. Pulling money out of emerging economies because they no longer are able to borrow in US dollars at profitable rates. repatriating their money.


As the article states this has already been factored in. Tapering was first put on the table May of last year and the markets reacted at that time.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Tue Jan 07, 2014 3:31 am

QE is not the only factor:

Credit Suisse:
No matter which numbers turn out to be correct, Peru appears on track to avoid a complete catastrophe following the broad decline in commodity prices. If the planned mining investments come to fruition, the Peruvian economic growth story could continue to be the envy of many developing nations. But Maldonado sounds a note of caution about the country’s more distant future in a November report entitled “Peru: Modest Growth Ahead,” saying “we think further efforts are needed to create medium-term sustainable growth rates that are not reliant on mining sector dynamics alone.” In other words, in a world where China is growing more slowly and commodities prices could remain under pressure for some time, diversifying the domestic economy may well prove to be the key to Peru’s success over the next decade.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Tue Jan 07, 2014 12:20 pm

Possibility of a soft landing, but the indicators point to a downward projection, except for the optimism of the BCR AND FINANCE MINISTERS. They are vested in maintaining a positive spin on the Peruvian economy.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Alan » Tue Jan 07, 2014 1:04 pm

tupacperu wrote:
craig wrote:
Alan wrote:
chi chi wrote:And there are presidential elections in 2016. The next president can pull the country down the drain like what happened several times in the past.

The past 3 elections in Peru have been democratic. Why a sudden turn around?
.
"Democratic elections" are what most commonly flushes a country down the crapper. It would not be unusual or any kind of turn around for it to happen again.

Democracy does not always equate to prosperity . Take a look at China's economy and it's effect on the global economy. Also take a look at the US and it Boom and Bust Cycles. No guarantees


Okay, we were talking about electoral stability, not the effect of democracy on markets, but since you want to go there, where would you rather work and make your living, China or the USA?
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby chi chi » Tue Jan 07, 2014 2:57 pm

Alan wrote:
chi chi wrote:The gap between rich and poor is getting bigger and bigger.

The poor and lower middle class are the ones who have had the greatest relative increase in their wages.


The shantytowns around Lima are growing bigger and bigger and crime is up.
Stealing is the only way to make ends meet for many people.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby chi chi » Tue Jan 07, 2014 3:11 pm

TShadow wrote:

Inflation in Peru is hovering around 3% and has been close to 2.5% average for the past 10 years.


Those are official numbers, if you look at how they determine this numbers, you would agree, but the reality is different and the real numbers are much higher.


That's right.

Some examples.
A year ago, internetcafes charged 1 sol per hour, now it's 1.50 soles per hour. That's an increase of 50%.
A menú costed 3.50 soles, now 5 soles. Almost an increase of 50%.
The Anaconda nightclub charged 5 soles cover, now 10 soles. An 100% increase.

Only electricity, water and gasolina got cheaper.

When I go to the supermarket, I pay 30% more than a year ago.
Going to the cinema costed 5 soles. Now 7.50 soles. Another 50% increase.

Prices of many things are gone up by 50% last year,
But I haven't met anyone yet who got a 50% pay increase last year.

5 years ago, life was better in Peru.

Last night I talked to few Germans at my local hangout. They were amazed how expensive food was at supermarkets in Peru. It's cheaper in Germany.
On top of that, compare the average wage in Germany with the average wage in Peru.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby craig » Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:23 am

Alan wrote:... where would you rather work and make your living, China or the USA?

Without any hesitation: China, where there is more freedom and a more capitalist society.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby chi chi » Wed Jan 08, 2014 7:44 am

craig wrote:
Alan wrote:... where would you rather work and make your living, China or the USA?

Without any hesitation: China, where there is more freedom and a more capitalist society.


Capitalism is greedy. Everybody should get the same income and benefits. The gap between rich and poor is responsable for crime. Money is responsable for most crimes.

It's unfair that the sick and unemployed have a lower lifestyle than the ones that are able to do and get job.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Wed Jan 08, 2014 9:12 am

Alan wrote:
tupacperu wrote:
craig wrote:
Alan wrote:
chi chi wrote:And there are presidential elections in 2016. The next president can pull the country down the drain like what happened several times in the past.

The past 3 elections in Peru have been democratic. Why a sudden turn around?
.
"Democratic elections" are what most commonly flushes a country down the crapper. It would not be unusual or any kind of turn around for it to happen again.

Democracy does not always equate to prosperity . Take a look at China's economy and it's effect on the global economy. Also take a look at the US and it Boom and Bust Cycles. No guarantees


Okay, we were talking about electoral stability, not the effect of democracy on markets, but since you want to go there, where would you rather work and make your living, China or the USA?



Same difference with the NSA spying, ramp-id unemployment in the USA. Depends on what social class you belong to in China as well as the USA. Poverty knows no Politics....

Recently they have stopped unemployment to lower the unemployment figures to benefit the US economy. Throwing citizens down the crapper, when the economy is still in a bad place. How can you find work when there is no work. How can you work on minimum wage, when you do not make a living wage (just going through the motions)


Is this the USA being the greatest nation in the world lecture?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMqcLUqYqrs
Last edited by tupacperu on Wed Jan 08, 2014 9:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Wed Jan 08, 2014 9:12 am

craig wrote:
Alan wrote:... where would you rather work and make your living, China or the USA?

Without any hesitation: China, where there is more freedom and a more capitalist society.


LOL Craig... I agree!
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Wed Jan 08, 2014 9:38 am

What gets me is how many maintain optimism over the Peruvian economy when majority of indicators are that it is in the process of descending. The GDP growth was at 8.8 in 2010, and now it has been revised to 5.1 for 2013, this is a 42% drop. Peru is not growing, but on a downward trend. The only question is how soft/hard the landing. Had their GDP been consistent and not volatile I would be one of the optimist. But Peru continues to grow on Domestic consumption, which is related to housing/construction, also very dependent on mining, which prices have a large fluctuation. I am waiting for Peru to make an investment in education. Also, the economy to move from raw material to manufacturing and also toward a service economy. could take some years, but Peru needs to take steps to show that it is moving in that direction.

Excerpts from an article which states my case
UN Warns Peru: GDP Growth Is Harming The Environment
By Patricia Rey Mallén
on November 29 2013 4:01 PM

According to the report, Peru has a high human development index. Between 1980 and 2012, life expectancy grew by 14.2 years, the average schooling increased by 3.2 years, and gross domestic product spiked 60 percent. But Santa Cruz said that such figures hide a different reality: “The growth does not come from education or health, but from predatory activities, like [resource] extraction and mining.”
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Wed Jan 08, 2014 9:59 am

The FED QE and precious metal (mining) prices.

Jan,7 2014:

Analysts expect prices of the precious metal to be pressed by a scenario of rising interest rates after the announcement of the Federal Reserve reduced its massive program of bond purchases as they improve economic forecasts U.S.

http://gestion.pe/mercados/fortalecimie ... ro-2085571
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Alan » Wed Jan 08, 2014 6:35 pm

tupacperu wrote:
craig wrote:
Alan wrote:... where would you rather work and make your living, China or the USA?

Without any hesitation: China, where there is more freedom and a more capitalist society.


LOL Craig... I agree!



Okay. Have a nice trip guys! :D
Last I checked, there were still many more Chinese immigrants going to the USA, (and Canada, and Australia, and just about anywhere else in the world) than traffic the other way around. Silly people!
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Alan » Wed Jan 08, 2014 6:42 pm

tupacperu wrote: The GDP growth was at 8.8 in 2010, and now it has been revised to 5.1 for 2013, this is a 42% drop. Peru is not growing, but on a downward trend. ”



In fact, the economy is still growing, but at a lesser speed. Come on.. 5.1% growth is better than most other countries in the region, and in fact, the world. There are problems, sure, and you point out one of the most important: stagnated reform in the education sector, and that will hurt growth long-term as it takes a bite out of potential increases in productivity, but Peru is still growing - like it or not - and the sky hasn´t fallen quite yet.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tomsax » Wed Jan 08, 2014 6:45 pm

craig wrote:
Alan wrote:... where would you rather work and make your living, China or the USA?

Without any hesitation: China, where there is more freedom and a more capitalist society.


I'm guessing the sort of freedom and capitalism you are talking about is the freedom to pay less tax and get round regulation by bribing oficials. And perhaps the freedom and capitalism of lower welfare payments.

I think you have to question your judgement on this as both tupacperu and chichi are agreeing with you!
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby chi chi » Wed Jan 08, 2014 6:59 pm

Alan wrote:Last I checked, there were still many more Chinese immigrants going to the USA, (and Canada, and Australia, and just about anywhere else in the world) than traffic the other way around. Silly people!


Not everybody in China is benefiting from the Economic boom. Mainly the Souteast of China experiences an economic boom. Most parts of China are very poor and living conditions are third world.

The Chinese that emigrate are from the poor provinces. They are promised to make a lot of money abroad. Triads smuggle them to the US, Europe, Canada,... Once they arrive there, they end up working as slaves in sweatshops and Chinese restaurants.
They often work 7 days a week, 16 hours a day and they have to repay a big debt to the Triads to repay the costs of their trip.
They live in substandard and overcrowded accomodation.
If they escape or run to the authorities, the Triads take revenge on their families back in China.

Many Chinese woman are promised a job in restaurants or shops but when they arrive abroad they are forced to work as prostitutes.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby craig » Wed Jan 08, 2014 8:39 pm

Alan wrote:
tupacperu wrote:
craig wrote:
Alan wrote:... where would you rather work and make your living, China or the USA?

Without any hesitation: China, where there is more freedom and a more capitalist society.

LOL Craig... I agree!

Okay. Have a nice trip guys! :D

I didn't say I wanted to go to China, just that I would prefer it to the US. I do not prefer it to Peru.

Alan wrote:Last I checked, there were still many more Chinese immigrants going to the USA, (and Canada, and Australia, and just about anywhere else in the world) than traffic the other way around. Silly people!

I don't know which way the net flow is going right now. The reports I have read say that most second generation Chinese in the US are moving back to China as soon as they are adults.

However, you should think about the cause of the flows that are occurring. Chinese migration to the US falls mainly in two categories.

1) Students who come to the US for graduate work. It used to be that many of these would stay in the US after graduation either to work in industry or in academia. Now they are almost all going back to China.

2) Chinese who have lived and worked in China all their lives and made a lot of money there. They do NOT come to the US and Canada to work and make a living. They come to retire in a place that they think is a safer haven for their wealth than China. Many of these are now regretting their decision to come to the US and spending substantial portions of their remaining wealth to extricate themselves from the bear trap.
Last edited by craig on Wed Jan 08, 2014 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby craig » Wed Jan 08, 2014 8:44 pm

tomsax wrote:
craig wrote:
Alan wrote:... where would you rather work and make your living, China or the USA?

Without any hesitation: China, where there is more freedom and a more capitalist society.

I'm guessing the sort of freedom and capitalism you are talking about is the freedom to pay less tax and get round regulation by bribing oficials. And perhaps the freedom and capitalism of lower welfare payments.

There are not various kinds of freedom and capitalism. The fact that you do not like a free, capitalist society (irrespective of how you characterize its nature or consequences or my motives) does not mean that the kind of socialist society you favor is some other kind of free or capitalist society. You could call what you want a social democracy, a welfare state, or whatever describes your proclivities. But it is not capitalism or a free (except according to twisted Marxist thinking) society.

A free, capitalist society is one without the initiation of coercion of any kind: NO taxation, NO regulation and NO welfare whatsoever. China is far from that. But it is significantly closer than the US (which is a damned ironic historical situation to have reached!). Bribes are alien to capitalism (there is nothing bribe anyone for). However, bribable officials are preferable to the alternative when you don't have capitalism.

tomsax wrote:I think you have to question your judgement on this as both tupacperu and chichi are agreeing with you!

That is cause for pause. :? No doubt they don't really understand what I am saying.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tomsax » Thu Jan 09, 2014 10:04 am

I admit I'm no expert on China but from what I gather the following freedoms do not exist:

to have as many children as you want.
to legally use google.
to publiclly crititise the government too much or certainly to organise against it.
to belong to a religion that does not swear loyalty to the chinese government.
private ownership of agricultural land.
private ownership of houses.

Are none of these freedoms important or are they just less important than the freedom to pay less tax and not have to follow regulations?

These freedoms are pretty fundamental to me and I wouldn't want to live in any country that didn't have them. It seems pretty obvious to me and most chinese people I know that the US is a freer country than China.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Thu Jan 09, 2014 10:42 am

Alan wrote:
tupacperu wrote:
craig wrote:
Alan wrote:... where would you rather work and make your living, China or the USA?

Without any hesitation: China, where there is more freedom and a more capitalist society.


LOL Craig... I agree!



Okay. Have a nice trip guys! :D
Last I checked, there were still many more Chinese immigrants going to the USA, (and Canada, and Australia, and just about anywhere else in the world) than traffic the other way around. Silly people!



Many Expat went to China and now are leaving.
Why??? Not because of Poverty:

Expat Exodus: Why Foreigners Are Leaving China

Expat blogs and articles signal the end
In times up to the present, China had acted as the head of the “BRIC” countries and fuelled the engine that powered the growing world economy with its “high-grade ore”. The recent perspective of many foreign media publications has been that foreigners come to China to gain opportunities and make money. However, a change started from last August. The news that foreigners stationed in China were leaving to return home started to be seen in newspapers throughout the world, signalling an “expat exodus”.

Read on:

http://www.echinacities.com/china-media ... ving-China


This is not a good indicator for the Peruvian economy which depends on exports to China.

An Article from 3 days ago:
China's GDP growth in 2013 set to be weakest since 1999 (7.6 is not bad, but will directly affect Peru)

Read more at:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 439530.cms
Last edited by tupacperu on Thu Jan 09, 2014 11:27 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Thu Jan 09, 2014 11:06 am

Point is , we have not totally eradicated poverty in the USA. 1% of the overall population in the USA are living in conditions of extreme poverty. out of the estimate 316 million people in the USA 3.1 million are living in extreme poverty. So again it depends on what race and social class you are from.

Last I learned in math 101
8.8 to 5.1 is decreasing, not growing. The estimated yearly figure for 2013 GDP for Peru was 6.6, it has been revised down to 5.1. I would not exactly call that growth, more like deceleration. The conditions for growtrh in Peru have not changed. The gov't is still relying on the same formula. 2+2 will always be 4 unles you change something in the equation.

TomSax:
-to legally use google===>We can use Google in the USA but that does not mean we have privacy (NSA)
-to publiclly crititise the government too much or certainly to organise against it. ==>You can criticize the gov't but run the risk of being labeld as a terrorist.
- to belong to a religion that does not swear loyalty to the chinese government. ====> Chritianity/Judism are the only respected religion in the US. try worshiping BEELZBUB? :). If you are not Christian in the US, you are going to burn in Hell. "God and Country".
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Thu Jan 09, 2014 11:34 am

I am not the only Naysayer, Peru is not growing it is decelerating:

Jan 8, 2014
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommends investors cut allocations in developing nations by a third, forecasting “significant underperformance” for stocks, bonds and currencies over the next 10 years. JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects local-currency bonds to post 10 percent of their average returns since 2004 in the coming year, while Morgan Stanley projects the Brazilian real, Turkish lira and Russian ruble will extend declines after tumbling as much as 17 percent in 2013.

-Maybe because when you live in Peru, you are in the eye of the storm. The Peruvina gov't and economist are not going to admit what is going on, it would cause a panic.

Jan 7 2014
Goldman to JPMorgan Say Sell Emerging Markets After Retreat
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s biggest banks say the slump in emerging-market assets that left equities trailing advanced-nation shares by the most since 1998 last year will prove more than a fleeting selloff.

http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomber ... 121025.php

LatAm currency rout seen extending into this year
http://www.gulf-times.com/business/191/ ... -this-year
Foreign investors are betting the worst rout in Latin American currencies since 2008 will extend into next year as commodity export prices slump and rising US bond yields lure money out of the region.
The Bloomberg JPMorgan Latin America Currency Index of the region’s six most-traded currencies fell 9.6% this year and touched 94.6, within 1% of a four-year low. International investors boosted wagers to a record $21.7bn this week that Brazil’s real will keep falling, data compiled by BM&FBovespa SA show. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg only forecast Mexico’s peso will avoid further losses in the region next year.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Alan » Thu Jan 09, 2014 12:34 pm

Alan wrote:
tupacperu wrote: The GDP growth was at 8.8 in 2010, and now it has been revised to 5.1 for 2013, this is a 42% drop. Peru is not growing, but on a downward trend. ”



In fact, the economy is still growing, but at a lesser speed. Come on.. 5.1% growth is better than most other countries in the region, and in fact, the world. There are problems, sure, and you point out one of the most important: stagnated reform in the education sector, and that will hurt growth long-term as it takes a bite out of potential increases in productivity, but Peru is still growing - like it or not - and the sky hasn´t fallen quite yet.


Sorry.. i just want to be a stickler for detail here, since later you use "decelerating" but in this post above you say: "Peru is not growing". That is false, It is growing, only more slowly, and as a response to the current international context. It is a fact that most analysts recognize, including the ones you later quote. "Not growing" is not the same as "decelerating".

Regarding your worry that: "The Peruvina gov't and economist are not going to admit what is going on, it would cause a panic." .. I think you are under-estimating the ability and transparency in this sector. In the first place, economists are a pretty heterogenic lot, with lots of divergence of opinion; there is no conspiracy of silence. GDP figures undergo pretty strict scrutiny. They come from the INEI, but the BCRP also publishes projections. INEI figures have been questioned in the past, but analysts both foreign and local, seem pretty satisfied with the BCRP. Their figures show that indeed, Peru is decelerating, and much of this is due to lower demand and prices for minerals, and cutbacks on the anchovy catch and a textile sector hurt by declines in exports to Venezuela, and increased competition from China.

Keep a happy thought, Tupac! I worry that all your negative thinking is going to generate a Karma dump! :(
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Alan » Thu Jan 09, 2014 12:39 pm

craig wrote:

2) Chinese who have lived and worked in China all their lives and made a lot of money there. They do NOT come to the US and Canada to work and make a living. They come to retire in a place that they think is a safer haven for their wealth than China. Many of these are now regretting their decision to come to the US and spending substantial portions of their remaining wealth to extricate themselves from the bear trap.



This prompted me to do some research. The majority of immigrants going to Canada (I can´t speak for the USA) is under fourty. Young families with children. These are workers, not retirees.

It surprises me that you say "many" (which sounds like a lot) now want to return to China. If you can recall where you saw that, I´d be interested in reading it.

As far as my reading takes me, immigrants are making an overwhelming choice to move from East to West, not the other way around. Voting with their feet.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Alan » Thu Jan 09, 2014 12:42 pm

craig wrote: Bribes are alien to capitalism (there is nothing bribe anyone for). However, bribable officials are preferable to the alternative when you don't have capitalism.



:shock:

So.. in a country where capitalism is in some way limited, limited bribery is therefore acceptable?

Maybe Montesinos can use this in one of his multiple appeals!
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby craig » Thu Jan 09, 2014 3:44 pm

tomsax wrote:I admit I'm no expert on China but from what I gather the following freedoms do not exist:

to have as many children as you want.
to legally use google.
to publiclly crititise the government too much or certainly to organise against it.
to belong to a religion that does not swear loyalty to the chinese government.
private ownership of agricultural land.
private ownership of houses.

Are none of these freedoms important or are they just less important than the freedom to pay less tax and not have to follow regulations?

These freedoms are pretty fundamental to me and I wouldn't want to live in any country that didn't have them.

All the items you list are important and I would like to live in a place where I could enjoy them. Unfortunately, we live in a world in which there does not exist any place where individual rights are even substantially respected. So we have to choose places to live where we can enjoy those things that are most important for our own lives even if that means giving up things that are less important to us.

For example, everything else being equal, I would prefer to live in a society where people can choose how many children they want to have, can criticize the government, have religious liberty, etc. However, I do not want to have children, don't give a damn about the government and am an atheist. So, those liberties are only of direct value to other people. They are only of value to me for a more free ambiance. They would only become critical items for me if we lived in a much more free world than we do, where the icing on the cake would be more important to me because I already had some cake.

I am delighted that any Chinese can and does have the ability to access Google illegally. In our current world, that is almost better than being able to do it legally.

I am not sure about the current property situation in China. However, I am sure it is no worse than it is in, say, Bolivia. And at my stage in life that is adequate for my needs. I would like better but I cannot have it, even in the US where all you can do is rent (very limited and restricted usage privileges) from the government. There is only a fascist fiction of private ownership left in the US. Even Bolivia is better than that.

tomsax wrote:It seems pretty obvious to me and most chinese people I know that the US is a freer country than China.

That perception depends on your criteria, priorities and perceptions.

Most Peruvians still would like to move to the US. But that desire is based on a past reality that no longer exists and illusions from watching US movies.

I frequently meet Peruvians who went to the US, say, 50 years ago and did very well for themselves. Their stories and their accomplishments are amazing and many. They are justly proud of their lives and grateful for the opportunity they had in the US. But that was a world that no longer exists.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby craig » Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:09 pm

Alan wrote:
craig wrote: Chinese who have lived and worked in China all their lives and made a lot of money there. They do NOT come to the US and Canada to work and make a living. They come to retire in a place that they think is a safer haven for their wealth than China. Many of these are now regretting their decision to come to the US and spending substantial portions of their remaining wealth to extricate themselves from the bear trap.

This prompted me to do some research. The majority of immigrants going to Canada (I can´t speak for the USA) is under fourty. Young families with children. These are workers, not retirees.

I used to live in northern Washington, near Vancouver BC. At that time (about 10 years ago) there were lots of Chinese moving into the area, especially from Hong Kong. They were people seeking a haven for their wealth and mostly retirees. However, sometimes a clan will send a young family to create an anchor in case they need to flee in the future.

Alan wrote:It surprises me that you say "many" (which sounds like a lot) now want to return to China. If you can recall where you saw that, I´d be interested in reading it.

I recall the context but don't have a link. It was part of some of the news reports about Americans renouncing their citizenship due to FATCA. They also reported recent Chinese immigrants with buyer's remorse.

Alan wrote:As far as my reading takes me, immigrants are making an overwhelming choice to move from East to West, not the other way around. Voting with their feet.

Attitudes and behavior are changing to fit the new realities. But that process does take a long time.
Last edited by craig on Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby craig » Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:15 pm

Alan wrote:
craig wrote: Bribes are alien to capitalism (there is nothing bribe anyone for). However, bribable officials are preferable to the alternative when you don't have capitalism.

:shock:
So.. in a country where capitalism is in some way limited, limited bribery is therefore acceptable?

That depends on the purpose. If the bribery is for the purpose of directing state power to initiate coercion then it is utterly unacceptable in any circumstance. If the bribery is for the purpose of ameliorating the harm done by coercion initiated by the state then any bribery is a moral improvement.

This is just like lying. Lying for the purpose of gaining an unearned value is wrong. (eg. Saying you will pay next Tuesday for a hamburger today.) Lying for the purpose of preventing evil is moral. (eg. Telling the Gestapo you are not hiding any Jewish children in your attic.).
Last edited by craig on Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tomsax » Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:23 pm

Craig,

You don't give a damn about the government? I have communicated with few people who are as obsessed about government as you are!

I don't want more children, am also an atheist and am not exactly an activist but I still want to live in country where other people have these freedoms. You must be liable for a lot of tax to be less concerned about that sort of bad ambiance

I suspect you exagerate the changes in the US over the last 50 years. if it is anything like the UK, Peruvians can probably still go there and do very well partly because they can appreciate the freedoms that do exist and take advantage of them better than the native population.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby craig » Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:42 pm

tomsax wrote: You don't give a damn about the government? I have communicated with few people who are as obsessed about government as you are!

You are being deliberately obtuse. That is OK and funny. But you clearly understood what I meant since you included "activist" in your recapitulation below.

tomsax wrote:I don't want more children, am also an atheist and am not exactly an activist but I still want to live in country where other people have these freedoms. You must be liable for a lot of tax to be less concerned about that sort of bad ambiance

Clearly, it is a moral issue for me not a matter of money. I would prefer not to have to compromise on any issues but I don't have that option. That you do not share my moral priorities is not much of a surprise.

tomsax wrote:I suspect you exagerate the changes in the US over the last 50 years. if it is anything like the UK, Peruvians can probably still go there and do very well partly because they can appreciate the freedoms that do exist and take advantage of them better than the native population.

In most things, I am sure the UK is worse than the US, but similar in the nature of the changes.

No, the astounding things Peruvians I have talked to have done are no longer possible. That world no longer exists. They could not even have traveled to the US as they did anymore.

That said, in some special cases Peruvians may still be able to overcome current barriers, go to the US and earn more money than they could in Peru for a while. Having Peruvian citizenship, they can send their earnings back to Peru and eventually be able to leave the US with a nest egg safely out of reach of leviathan. My landlady's son is doing that right now. But they can no longer enjoy freedoms that no longer exist in the US. Now it is just a matter of money and keeping your head down.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tomsax » Thu Jan 09, 2014 6:14 pm

I suppose it's because I don't know enough about China to know where the exact line is drawn between making multiple private postings on a public forum against government and being an "activist "against government. I suspect if might be quite arbitrary.

For me it just seems amazing that you can be so much less concerned with freedoms that, for me, are so fundamental compared to taxation and regulation in the US (and/or what?). To me it just confirms that this isn't really a stand about freedom at all, but of notions to do with your ideological view of capitalism. And more mundanely of how you react to how things are going in the US rather than how things really were, how they are or how they will be. I know the word freedom is a good rally cry but at the end of the day you need to back that up

Seems I must apologise to chi chi as I now think he didn't agree with at all. There is hope for both of you still.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby chi chi » Thu Jan 09, 2014 8:02 pm

Alan wrote:This prompted me to do some research. The majority of immigrants going to Canada (I can´t speak for the USA) is under fourty. Young families with children. These are workers, not retirees.


The Canadian immigration rules are straigtforward. It's a point based system. If you score sufficient points then you can get a workvisa.
If you are under 40, speak both French and English, have workexperience in a field where there's a shortage of Canadian workers, then you allready score enough points to get a workvisa.

Unless you have experience in a job at university degree level, you won't stand a chance to get a workvisa for the US. That's why some businesses in the US have no other choice than employing illegal immigrants to fill their jobvacancies. There's a huge demand for restaurant and hotel staff in the US but it's impossible to get a workvisa for a hotel or restaurant worker. Have a look at Craiglist, it's full of jobvacancies in hospitality and catering.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby craig » Thu Jan 09, 2014 8:18 pm

tomsax wrote:... where the exact line is drawn between making multiple private postings on a public forum against government and being an "activist "against government. I suspect if might be quite arbitrary.

To me the concept is quite clear. An activist is someone who devotes effort to trying to change and/or control governments, direct or influence governmental policy or otherwise control coercive activity.

tomsax wrote:For me it just seems amazing that you can be so much less concerned with freedoms that, for me, are so fundamental compared to taxation and regulation in the US (and/or what?).

That characterization is just in your own mind and only reflects your own misconceptions. It has nothing to do with me or the nature of my concerns which I have made clear.

tomsax wrote: To me it just confirms that this isn't really a stand about freedom at all, but of notions to do with your ideological view of capitalism. And more mundanely of how you react to how things are going in the US rather than how things really were, how they are or how they will be. I know the word freedom is a good rally cry but at the end of the day you need to back that up

Freedom and capitalism are two perspectives on the same thing: when there is no initiation of coercion. Capitalism is the economic organization of a society where people are free. Freedom is the social order of a society governed by the marketplace (capitalism).

None of these are ideas that are difficult to understand or unclear. You just don't like them. And your way of opposing ideas you don't like is to try to muddy the waters.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Fri Jan 10, 2014 1:24 pm

Alan wrote:
Alan wrote:
tupacperu wrote: The GDP growth was at 8.8 in 2010, and now it has been revised to 5.1 for 2013, this is a 42% drop. Peru is not growing, but on a downward trend. ”



In fact, the economy is still growing, but at a lesser speed. Come on.. 5.1% growth is better than most other countries in the region, and in fact, the world. There are problems, sure, and you point out one of the most important: stagnated reform in the education sector, and that will hurt growth long-term as it takes a bite out of potential increases in productivity, but Peru is still growing - like it or not - and the sky hasn´t fallen quite yet.


Sorry.. i just want to be a stickler for detail here, since later you use "decelerating" but in this post above you say: "Peru is not growing". That is false, It is growing, only more slowly, and as a response to the current international context. It is a fact that most analysts recognize, including the ones you later quote. "Not growing" is not the same as "decelerating".

Regarding your worry that: "The Peruvina gov't and economist are not going to admit what is going on, it would cause a panic." .. I think you are under-estimating the ability and transparency in this sector. In the first place, economists are a pretty heterogenic lot, with lots of divergence of opinion; there is no conspiracy of silence. GDP figures undergo pretty strict scrutiny. They come from the INEI, but the BCRP also publishes projections. INEI figures have been questioned in the past, but analysts both foreign and local, seem pretty satisfied with the BCRP. Their figures show that indeed, Peru is decelerating, and much of this is due to lower demand and prices for minerals, and cutbacks on the anchovy catch and a textile sector hurt by declines in exports to Venezuela, and increased competition from China.

Keep a happy thought, Tupac! I worry that all your negative thinking is going to generate a Karma dump! :(


That was my point, too many thinking that positive thinking will move the economy. I am not negative, just the numbers coming out on Peru are. As a person looking to invest more in Peru, I am looking at pure numbers , not KARMA :)
Lol...

Decelerating is going from 8.8 to 5.1 (which 6.2 was the estimate). Of course no one is going to say deceleration. It may cause panic. When Humala use the word2 months ago he got hammered by economist (Peruvian) and politician.

Analyst use the term in October/ November 2013:

World Bank: Latin America’s Economy Is Decelerating but, in a Historic Shift, Currencies Now Provide Lift
October 9, 2013
Exchange rate acts as shock absorber and economic booster
In spite of 2.5 % expected growth, pessimism over LAC’s future unwarranted
Small countries with less flexible currencies need to find fiscal buffers

Moody Analyst:
Peru: GDP
Updated: 11/25/2013 8:26 AM
Actual: 4.4%
Analyst: Douglas Wynne in West Chester

First Take
The Peruvian economy moderated in the third quarter in part because of decelerating domestic demand. According to the government's statistics office, GDP expanded 4.4% y/y in this period, after 5.6% in the previous quarter. Domestic demand grew 4.8% y/y in the third quarter, slightly down from 6.2% in the previous quarter.

IMF Nov 29, 2013

Despite the economic deceleration, the Peruvian economy continues to operate somewhat near potential, and real GDP growth is expected to decelerate to around 5 percent in 2013, the IMF predicted.



The truth some times is miscontrued as being negative. I am quoting JUST THE FACTS. Sometimes hard to swallow.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Fri Jan 10, 2014 2:03 pm

I am not making this stuff up to be DAN-DOWNER.
The economy is not as brilliant as it use to be.

Even the estimates have been revised down.
UPDATE 2-Peru central bank cuts 2013, 2014 growth forecasts again
Fri Dec 20, 2013 2:21pm EST
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LIMA, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Peru's central bank slashed its official forecast on Friday for economic growth this year to 5.1 percent from its September forecast of 5.5 percent.

In its quarterly report, the central bank also revised down its estimate for economic growth in 2014 to 6 percent from 6.2 percent.

The central bank has trimmed its growth forecast several times this year as the Andean country's key mineral exports have tumbled on weak prices and softer demand, and domestic demand has slowed.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby Alpineprince » Fri Jan 10, 2014 2:47 pm

tupacperu wrote:I am not making this stuff up to be DAN-DOWNER.
The economy is not as brilliant as it use to be.

Even the estimates have been revised down.
UPDATE 2-Peru central bank cuts 2013, 2014 growth forecasts again
Fri Dec 20, 2013 2:21pm EST
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LIMA, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Peru's central bank slashed its official forecast on Friday for economic growth this year to 5.1 percent from its September forecast of 5.5 percent.

In its quarterly report, the central bank also revised down its estimate for economic growth in 2014 to 6 percent from 6.2 percent.

The central bank has trimmed its growth forecast several times this year as the Andean country's key mineral exports have tumbled on weak prices and softer demand, and domestic demand has slowed.


Oops, I guess we are accelerating again!
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tomsax » Fri Jan 10, 2014 4:36 pm

craig wrote:
Freedom and capitalism are two perspectives on the same thing: when there is no initiation of coercion. Capitalism is the economic organization of a society where people are free. Freedom is the social order of a society governed by the marketplace (capitalism).

None of these are ideas that are difficult to understand or unclear. You just don't like them. And your way of opposing ideas you don't like is to try to muddy the waters.


It's no surpirse that you think it's simple. You subsribe to an ideology that appeals to people who are looking for that sort of simplicity. And within your mindset I'm sure you sincerely believe its all entirely logical. That is the nature of these things.

I find it interesting thast freedom is one of thoses concepts that is often better understood by people who have not distorted its meaning inside their heads to conform to an ideology or philosopy. The same is true for other concepts we instinctly understand by being human but can be difficult to pin down, like the concepts of fairness and free will.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tomsax » Fri Jan 10, 2014 4:51 pm

My guess is that the economy of Peru will continue to grow. From my past experience of watchinng the economy of Peru, the longer you wait for the economy to overheat and make a correction the longer it will continue to grow quite nicely. If a crash ever happens it will be when everyone has their eye off the ball and thinks a correction will never happen. My plan is to buy when tupacperu stop posting about its immiment demise.
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Re: Dr. Doom is Bullish on Peru!

Postby tupacperu » Sat Jan 11, 2014 7:52 am

tomsax wrote:My guess is that the economy of Peru will continue to grow. From my past experience of watchinng the economy of Peru, the longer you wait for the economy to overheat and make a correction the longer it will continue to grow quite nicely. If a crash ever happens it will be when everyone has their eye off the ball and thinks a correction will never happen. My plan is to buy when tupacperu stop posting about its immiment demise.


Lol...your guess? Tomsax. Do not shoot the messenger lol.

Just relaying what the analyst are saying. Take it as you please.
Never said anything about DEMISE. Just reading the news and looking for an investment opportunity

Here is more to chew on :)


JP MORGAN (yesterday).

06: 21 PM - 10 Jan
Latin America (EMBI Latam) country risk was 3.50 percentage points today, 10 January. He climbed nine basis points on the previous day, by the increase in the risk of Argentina 38 basis points.



Peru country risk rose 7 basis points to 1.68 percentage points
06: 21 PM - 10 Jan
Latin America (EMBI Latam) country risk was 3.50 percentage points today, 10 January. It climbed nine basis points on the previous day, by the increase in the risk of Argentina 38 basis points.

Country risk is, the index called Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI +) which measures the degree of "danger" posed by a country for foreign investment.

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