Does Humala plan a coup d'état ?

[gringito]

June 15, 2015

Considering the government crisis during the last weeks and days, in particular Ollanta Humala repeatedly threatening the Peruvian Congress with disolving the same as well as mentioning the posibility of ruling the State on his own on the basis of decretos the urgencia ....
do you think there exists the danger of a
coup d'état
by Ollant Humala?

Would the Peruvian military support him???

BTW:
Humala`s popularity sank to 14%

[asgp]

I believe there is no chance for a 'golpe de estado'... not even by mistake. Why? Ollanta Humala regime has no enough strength, popularity levels of the presidential couple is in free fall and everybody in this regime is looking forward to end this presidential period standing still. Not to mention that big corporations take part in the political subject too, they won't agree in such risky plan to support Hulama for another four more years or even more.

[Alpineprince]

Hopefully PPK will get into the second round and save this place!

[panman]

Hopefully PPK will get into the second round and save this place!

Good to know he's getting at least 2 votes, yours and mine.

[adrian Thorne]

Hopefully PPK will get into the second round and save this place!

Good to know he's getting at least 2 votes, yours and mine.

3 votes

[Bobby]

Unfortunately the recent interoceanica scandal while PPK was in office puts a shadow on him....Let's wait and see what happens.

[gringito]

I believe there is no chance for a 'golpe de estado'... not even by mistake. Why? Ollanta Humala regime has no enough strength, popularity levels of the presidential couple is in free fall and everybody in this regime is looking forward to end this presidential period standing still. Not to mention that big corporations take part in the political subject too, they won't agree in such risky plan to support Hulama for another four more years or even more.

While I hope you are right and while am aware of Humala´s low popularity level and I agree that his political strenght is low as well, one has to bear in mind that such characteristics as well as possible protests by civilians do not represent and have never represented a bar to a golpe de estado.

To the contrary:
a golpe de estado may personally serve Humala & Nadine.

Both (as well as their ex minister of the interior) are already in the cross hairs of the judiciary system.
According to the Peruvian press, 80% of the Peruvians belief that Ollanta & Nadine are involved in money laundering.
A prosecutor who was investigating Nadine was surprisingly discharged.
O&N are not powerless!

What will Ollanta & Nadine do to judicially protect themselves when the presidental immunity expires???
Or even if Martin Belaunde Lossio reveals a compromising video???
They have a lot to loose and a lot to win.

The main question I cannot answer is if the army would support him.
Humala has made himself many enemies in the army but he also occupied many key positions by his amigos.

[TShadow]

It doesn't come to a surprise that at least 33% of the Peruvians are in favor of a dictatorship.

The popularity of H&N is not important for such an event, but as @gringito already stated, the military support would be.

It is also true that Humala is not the decision maker in Peru, other people are in charge and I don't believe that they are willing to support such incompetent and greedy people like H&N, not even Humalas own father does.

It is also true that both are seeking a salvation as most probably they could end up in prison under the next government, especially if a certain Video a la Montesino will be released.

Never to forget, Peru since the last dictorship hasn't changed so much that this possibility could be excluded.

[asgp]

Interesting...

Would the military support the presidential couple? I am not sure, obviously, but my bet is going for a NO.

Have you discussed this topic with local peruvians? I have, and yes, a third of them would support a dictatorship, but one dictatorship coming from a strong leader, both Ollanta and Nadine are not such thing. They are newbies in politics, political adventurers. They took power winning an election with promises, cheating the feeling of people, deceivers.

O.H. was trully him back in 2006, when he lost the presitdentisl race, so he found himself forced to change the speech in order to win. That is the opposite of leadership, and military trust leaders. not to mention the corruption level in all the system, including the military, money can corrupt men in uniform and in suit, and some people follow money as the leader.

In a country like this, when absolutely all the former presidents of this century (including Fujimori who is from the past) are routinely accused of corruption there is no way O.H. can escape, and I don't believe he is going to risk all his family and future doing the golpe de estado. He will be doing just like the others presidentes did. And who knows if at the end of the day he might be 'paying fot it', footing the bill, a price to pay for taking a inexperienced approach in politics.

PPK: Everybody knows he is the guy to go. But nobody will vote for him, only because 'es un gringo', Fujimori did so much damage to the image of foreing looking presidents, even his daughter can't win because of that.

[alan]

Peru is now a signatory to so many international agreements that they simply cannot afford to be ostrocized by the international community, and the way things stand now, there is not much appetite in the world for dictatorships, at least in Latin America.

[TShadow]

Well the real power comes from important business men, no matter how they made their money. I do not believe that certain people care in Peru about the international agreements, but I do agree with @asgp about the fact that people most probably would support a strong leader taking the lead with some sort of a dictatorship. It is clear that H&N are adventurers and cheaters. Not exactly the type of leaders people would favor.

Yes PPK is the guy to go, my girl friend is in his party. His reputation as 'Gringo' and lobbyist for the USA will be an obstacle.

[gringito]

Peru is now a signatory to so many international agreements that they simply cannot afford to be ostrocized by the international community, and the way things stand now, there is not much appetite in the world for dictatorships, at least in Latin America.

International agreements are no obstacle.
The magic questions is what H&N may gain by a golpe de estado, for example no prosecution.
In this context, however, it may be sufficient for H&N that ex-minister Urresti (currebtly accused of murder), a good amiguito of H&N, may win the elections 2016 - which I hope, may never happen...

PPK: Everybody knows he is the guy to go. But nobody will vote for him, only because 'es un gringo',

I fully agree!

[asgp]

And in the meanwhile... No coup d'état, no PPK and no hope,

[asgp]

New Update:



Pulso Perú: 4 out of 10 peruvians have a authoritarian vision. Ideology poll shows eight percent growth in one year and represents 39.5% of the population.

http://peru21.pe/politica/cuatro-cada-d ... ia-2221424

[alan]

International agreements are no obstacle.

I don´t think this is true anymore; Peru is tied through trade to most of the major trade blocks in the world, and it keeps on negotiating new agreements. Tens of billions of goods are imported and exported every year. In the case of a dictatorship, sanctions would be placed and trade would be disrupted. Aslo, roughly 40% of the economy here is in dollars, so consider too what a represive, un-democratic government would mean to the international agents who ultimately have a lot to say about our exchange rate. They´d be rightfully worried and would pull their dollars out. As they say, there is nothing more cowardly than a million dollars. Hello depreciation, goodbye reserves, and hello inflation.

Peru is now articulated with the global economy, so much so that even the dimmest potential dictators must see that. They would see that a dictatorship would be very, very bad for business, making it ultimately unsustainable, so thankfully unthinkable.

Let´s hope so anyway.

[gringito]

International agreements are no obstacle.

I don´t think this is true anymore; Peru is tied through trade to most of the major trade blocks in the world,...

... as was Venezuela.

Why shouldn´t a golpe de estado benefit economy and trade?

Nonetheless the questions is who would personally benefit from a golpe de estado?
Such people do not think about their country but primarily about themselves!

[asgp]

I am venezuelan, and I can tell you something about that beautiful country and that horrible regime who runs it.

The last actual, properly called 'golpe de estado' happened in 1958, when the country was ruled by a military dictatorship and that golpe de estado overthrew the government who, yes, it was horrible, yes it committed crime against the humanity, yes it was a very successful in the economy related issues and yes it built almost all the current important infrastructure the country, call it hospitals, highways, airports, you name it. It was a magnet for business people in the globe. Ever since, the country have gone in a corruption downfall of one other an another corrupted democracy, people elected democracy, from left to right parties, including president Chavez and the current Maduro catastrophe.

My point is that 'golpes de estado' are no longer well received in the region, they have evolved to this people elected democracies when corruption have taken place and the use of the force and weapons to repress the dissent is no longer necessary, for that purpose now dictators have laws and corrupted justice. All you need is an charismatic guy with nationalist ideas and boom! Neo-dictatorships with out a single bullet shoot

[gringito]

My point is that 'golpes de estado' are no longer well received in the region, they have evolved to this people elected democracies when corruption have taken place and the use of the force and weapons to repress the dissent is no longer necessary, for that purpose now dictators have laws and corrupted justice. All you need is an charismatic guy with nationalist ideas and boom! Neo-dictatorships with out a single bullet shoot

Thank you @asgp for this interesting information about Venezuela.

While I agree that a corrupt justice (as well as corrupt police and military) are very usefull for Dictators, I feel that one has to bear in mind that citizens without power and without weapons are at a despot´s mercy. In other word, without guns and the threat to use them against the citizens a dictator was already dismissed.

As far as I remember, a lot of shots were fired during many protests in Venezuela.
Moreover, what does the Venezuelan military do? Obviously, they support (In)Maduro.
Same applies for the police.
Furthermore, what do all the Cuban "consultants" do in Venezuela?
You may not call it a "coup d'état" but it does not depend on how you call something but rather on what is its de facto nature.

[asgp]

That's right amigo.

[asgp]

Today was circulating a rumor... about a Golpe de Estado... aparently it was massive trough whatsapp... here is the audio...


https://youtu.be/q7SwQUOfAOI


Facebook: PNP toma con humor la noticia de un supuesto golpe de estado
La Policía Nacional del Perú empleó al ya famoso Pokémon Squirtle para llevar calma a la población.
http://rpp.pe/virales/facebook/pokemon- ... cia-951060