Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

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gerard
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby gerard » Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:36 pm

So you accept one set of numbers the Mexican health ministry gives out that match your own personal view, but not the other numbers they give that don't? That's not really logical.

The 26000 is of course an estimate so will contain some error, but it would need to be a massive error - around 70% wrong - to put the Mexico figures less than Peru. It's unlikely to be that far out, but if we entertain that possibility then we must also allow that the error may be the in the other direction and thus a massive under-estimate.

Deaths are up to 296 in Mexico as of today, against 192 in Peru. By your figures that makes the mortality rate about 6.4% in Mexico against 2.6% in Peru. So you're either 2.5 times as likely to die in Mexico as you are in Peru, or more people have it than their confirmed number says.


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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby 69roadrunner » Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:23 pm

gerard wrote: By your figures that makes the mortality rate about 6.4% in Mexico against 2.6% in Peru.

No figures needed, just cold hard facts and numbers.
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby noclevername » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:57 am

69roadrunner wrote:
gerard wrote: By your figures that makes the mortality rate about 6.4% in Mexico against 2.6% in Peru.

No figures needed, just cold hard facts and numbers.

You said upthread on page 1, "Cold hard fact, public approval rate means nothing when fighting a virus, cold hard science does not hysteria." But you haven't provided any cold hard facts or numbers or science that have any relevance.

Cold, hard facts and numbers come from science and studies conducted using the scientific method. Where are the links to the cold hard science that are backing up your claims? So far we've just a lot of false equivalence about stress, fright, and the words of dodgy politicians. Here are some other examples of conclusions based on false equivalence:

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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby noclevername » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:58 am

69roadrunner wrote:Peru 6,848 cases 208 cases per million That's a whopping 3874 more since yesterday
Mexico 4,219 cases 33 cases per million That's a mere 1434 since yesterday.
Keep in mind Mexico has 4 times the population as Peru.

Quite a rise since yesterday for Peru. Despite the fact Peru has scared it citizens by locking down the country and masks be worn and Mexico has taken the high road and not frightened it's citizens to death.

Think of what the numbers would be if Peru had followed Mexico's, less stressful example. We all know what stress can do to ones health.

Mexico has lower numbers simply because they have not panicked its people causing stress.
Cold hard numbers with no, if this, if that, ands, buts or needless panicking the people or if aliens landed.

I'm cynical of the numbers coming out of many countries. Some for scientific reasons, other for political reasons.

Lack of testing is one one reason to suspect that numbers are being under reported. If there's reason to believe that the numbers in Peru (with it's lesser testing resources) are under reported due to lack of testing when compared to Connecticut in the US, then that same reasoning would also apply to Mexico and under reporting. Those numbers aren't really all that hard, or cold. More soft and fuzzy. There are numerous reports from reliable sources about how Mexico is under reporting it's numbers.

I'm not surprised to read reports that China is intentionally under reporting their numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that other countries are intentionally under reporting for political reasons. At this point in time there are no real cold, hard numbers that can be considered completeley reliable. There are only discernible patterns and the suggestions of the medical and scientific community who have studied pandemic viruses, have cold hard experience, and there are politicians who claim to know more than these experienced experts and spread misinformation, like the governor of Puebla, who said that the poor are imune and only the wealthy are at risk. If I need advice on dangerous chemicals If my life is at stake I'm going to take the word of a chemist over a lawyer or politician. I'll also take the advice of the medicial/scientific community on a highly contagious virus over a politician.

But since you're talking about "cold hard numbers," and "facts," where are the specific cold hard numbers (that facts are based on) that you refer to when making your claims?

Can you provided any links to studies with cold hard numbers that proves (or even merely suggests) that the reason deaths attributed to coronavirus here in Peru is because "the fact (that) Peru has scared it (sic) citizens by locking down the country?" If "Mexico has taken the high road and not frightened it's citizens to death," then what did all of those dead coronavirus victims actually die of if not fright? Can you provide any links to studies with cold hard numbers that draw and back up this conclusion? Any links to even a story by a reputable person with credentials in the scientific/medical field who even without any cold hard numbers or facts suggests this?

I'm not doubting that stress can lead to various illnesses, but I haven't come across any cold hard numbers that prove that there's any link between stress levels and suceptibly to contracting coronavirus. Can you provide any links to studies with cold hard numbers that proves as fact that Mexico's (likely under reported) lower numbers are "simply because they have not panicked its people causing stress?" Can you provide any links to studies with cold hard numbers that shows that lack of stress is proven to reduce suceptibility to getting corona virus? I've seen news reports interviewing Mexicans who are worried about coronavirus, but nothing that quantifies stress levels in the Mexican population. Can you provide any links to studies with cold hard numbers that quantifies the stress level in the Mexican population? Can you provide links with cold hard numbers that shows that people are actually stressed by being told to wear a mask in public and practice social distancing? Any links with cold hard numbers that shows that being told by politicians with no medical/scientific background and without any evidence that being told not to practice social distancing or wear a mask in public actually reduces stress levels?

Can you provide any links to studies with cold hard numbers by scientists or anyone in the medical community who say that the way to contain and reduce the number of corona virus cases is to do as AMLO suggests and not practice social distancing? How, with links to studies with cold hard numbers and scientifically not anecdotally speaking, is a highly contagious virus more contained by not practicing social distancing?

So far we've not seen any cold hard numbers or facts that back up your claim that AMLO is taking the correct measures, but there're plenty of links to experts who say he's taking the wrong measures. Provide some links to back up your claims, or tell us how you've come to these conclusions and what your background, credentials, and experience in pandemic viruses is that would make someone take your opinion over that of an expert.
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby 69roadrunner » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:49 pm

noclevername wrote:So far we've not seen any cold hard numbers or facts that back up your claim that AMLO is taking the correct measures, but there're plenty of links to experts who say he's taking the wrong measures. Provide some links to back up your claims, or tell us how you've come to these conclusions and what your background, credentials, and experience in pandemic viruses is that would make someone take your opinion over that of an expert.


I have not seen any cold hard numbers that Mexico is doing anything incorrect. There is plenty of information on the net, Google is your friend.
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby noclevername » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:46 pm

The way these things generally work is that the person who makes the claim, provides the proof of their claim. Like how a court of law works. Myself and others don't seem to have an issue with providing links that back up what we say. No one else makes claims and say 'go look up the evidence yourself.' You'd think someone so into cold hard numbers would be easily able to link to the sources of those numbers and wouldn't have to be pressed to do so.

Regardless, you haven't provided links backing up your claims: that lack of stress helps prevent contraction of corona virus. That Mexicans have quantifiably less stress than citizens of other countries. That the numbers Mexico provides are accurate, despite numerous reputable people saying they're not, and you're own argument about the accuracy of numbers re: Peru and Connecticut having to do with lack of testing. That people are actually stressed by being told to wear a mask in public and practice social distancing. That the way to contain and reduce the number of corona virus cases is to do as AMLO suggests and not practice social distancing. Or even how a highly contagious virus is more contained by not practicing social distancing.

I guess I'm not surprised. You still can't even acknowledge the question if you are planning on fleeing Peru where you voluntarily live and which you find to be tyranical for a country you find to be more tolerable and less tyranical once the travel bans are lifted. Seems like it would be the sensible thing to do for an expat.

I am kind of surprised that someone who touts the infalibility of cold hard numbers and science can't provide a single link to a reputable scientific source with cold hard numbers that back up his claims. Unless you're claims are completeley basis you have to have come across a source somewhere on which you base these claims. I've kind of figured out by now that you're really not interested in doing so because for one, you can't. There are no sources or you would 've posted them and we skeptics would gladly eat our hats and apologize. We'll all take you seriously on this if you ever have anything serious to offer in the way of cold hard numbers, facts, and science. Until then, have fun with whatever it is you're doing.
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby Formidable 1 » Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:28 pm

noclevername wrote:

You still can't even acknowledge the question if you are planning on fleeing Peru
.


How could he flee Peru even if he was planning to?
No one is fleeing Peru at the moment.
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby 69roadrunner » Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:01 pm

Formidable 1 wrote:
noclevername wrote:

You still can't even acknowledge the question if you are planning on fleeing Peru
.


How could he flee Peru even if he was planning to?
No one is fleeing Peru at the moment.

That statement reminds me of '60s and that days of protesting when the establishment would chant...."America, love it of leave it.
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby Alan » Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:56 am

noclevername wrote:The way these things generally work is that the person who makes the claim, provides the proof of their claim. Like how a court of law works. Myself and others don't seem to have an issue with providing links that back up what we say. No one else makes claims and say 'go look up the evidence yourself.' You'd think someone so into cold hard numbers would be easily able to link to the sources of those numbers and wouldn't have to be pressed to do so.

Regardless, you haven't provided links backing up your claims: that lack of stress helps prevent contraction of corona virus. That Mexicans have quantifiably less stress than citizens of other countries. That the numbers Mexico provides are accurate, despite numerous reputable people saying they're not, and you're own argument about the accuracy of numbers re: Peru and Connecticut having to do with lack of testing. That people are actually stressed by being told to wear a mask in public and practice social distancing. That the way to contain and reduce the number of corona virus cases is to do as AMLO suggests and not practice social distancing. Or even how a highly contagious virus is more contained by not practicing social distancing.

I guess I'm not surprised. You still can't even acknowledge the question if you are planning on fleeing Peru where you voluntarily live and which you find to be tyranical for a country you find to be more tolerable and less tyranical once the travel bans are lifted. Seems like it would be the sensible thing to do for an expat.

I am kind of surprised that someone who touts the infalibility of cold hard numbers and science can't provide a single link to a reputable scientific source with cold hard numbers that back up his claims. Unless you're claims are completeley basis you have to have come across a source somewhere on which you base these claims. I've kind of figured out by now that you're really not interested in doing so because for one, you can't. There are no sources or you would 've posted them and we skeptics would gladly eat our hats and apologize. We'll all take you seriously on this if you ever have anything serious to offer in the way of cold hard numbers, facts, and science. Until then, have fun with whatever it is you're doing.



These are great points. We need to learn from this crisis, so if mistakes were made, we don't repeat them in the future.

Here is something I came across yesterday on the Life in Lima Expat Support page. A fellow has put together a chart that shows deaths per 100,000. What it does not show is where countries are in the curve, nor does it show how how reliable the reporting is in each country, but when all this is said and done, it will be an interesting metric to look at as it will show, among other things, the quality of a country's health service, and the efficacy of their social distancing measures.


https://1drv.ms/x/s!AhoGefWfv9J1gd9Wsbo ... A?e=9gc0td
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby noclevername » Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:48 pm

Formidable 1 wrote:
noclevername wrote:

You still can't even acknowledge the question if you are planning on fleeing Peru .


How could he flee Peru even if he was planning to?
No one is fleeing Peru at the moment.

"Planning on" is future tense, as in "I wonder if he's planning on fleeing this tyranical country once the travel restrictions are lifted here and the non-tyranical country he would be moving to." What I originally said back on page one, also using the future tense, was:

I´m curious if anyone who finds the current, and more than likely, temporary rules here in Peru to be tyranical will be hightailing it out of here once the borders here and in other countries are again open for crossing.

If an expat doesn`t like the country they`ve expatriated to they`re free to return to their home country. Or if not tryranical Peru or their home country, some other country on the planet where they find the government not to be tyranical.

If I thought the place I was living as an expat was tyranical because of this lockdown (or any other reason) I´d be using this time stuck in the house to figure out where I was going to move to once these restrictions end. And once they did (I´ll bet any amount they will) Í`d book passage and flee the tyrany. With so many options of where to live I wouldn´t voluntarily live in a country I believe is tyranical. Life´s too short, and ironically societies are too free with open travel to be stuck living under tyrany when there are numerous options.
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby noclevername » Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:56 pm

69roadrunner wrote:
Formidable 1 wrote:
noclevername wrote:

You still can't even acknowledge the question if you are planning on fleeing Peru
.


How could he flee Peru even if he was planning to?
No one is fleeing Peru at the moment.

That statement reminds me of '60s and that days of protesting when the establishment would chant...."America, love it of leave it.

I was reminded more of when you hear people say "if (presidential candidate) wins the election I'm leaving the country and moving to (name of another country)." I've never heard anyone say that who actually follows through. It's all a lot of hyperbole and bluster. People say all sorts of things, like the country they are voluntarily living in is tyranical, but aren't really serious because if they were serious about that belief and had the stones they'd actually leave the tyranical country if they had their act together enough to do so.

If I was voluntarily living in a country I thought turned tyranical I'd leave as soon as possible. I've left countries I was living in before for reasons far milder than "tyrany," like cultural preferences, lower cost of living, better climate, the usual expat reasons. So there'd be nothing to stop me from relocating again and I certainly wouldn't put up living in a tyranical country if I didn't have to.

I doubt once this pandemic is under control and the almost world-wide travel restrictions are lifted you'll be leaving Peru and it's supposed tyrany. But only you know and only you can answer that question. Some people are all talk, no action. All bark, no bite. Then again, maybe you're actually a person who doesn't use the word "tyrany" lightly or hyperbolically and would refuse to live in a tyranical state. If so, apologies for suggesting that you have. Time will tell.
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby JoshuS » Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:23 pm

COVID-19 is a scam, the whole world has been hoodwinked.

Dr. Andrew Kaufman debunks the Corona Virus SCAMdemia.

https://youtu.be/0YvNRno-JB8

https://youtu.be/2Op5-Nv2hb0
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby Alan » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:41 am

Check out what's happening in Australia and New Zealand:

https://nyti.ms/2VVvoTg

"Whether they get to zero or not, what Australia and New Zealand have already accomplished is a remarkable cause for hope. Scott Morrison of Australia, a conservative Christian, and Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s darling of the left, are both succeeding with throwback democracy — in which partisanship recedes, experts lead, and quiet coordination matters more than firing up the base.

“This is certainly distinct from the United States,” said Dr. Peter Collignon, a physician and professor of microbiology at the Australian National University who has worked for the World Health Organization. “Here it’s not a time for politics. This is a time for looking at the data and saying let’s do what makes the most sense.”"
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby noclevername » Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:14 pm

It inspires hope to see countries like Australia and New Zealand putting competence and common sense over politics and ego, and respect instead of disdain for science and experts in the field of global pandemics.

“It’s a case of politicians just not being in the way,” said Ian Mackay, an immunologist at the University of Queensland who has been involved in response planning for the pandemic. “It’s a mix of things, but I think it comes down to taking advice based on expertise.”

It all started with scientists. In Australia, as soon as China released the genetic code for the coronavirus in early January, pathologists in public health laboratories started sharing plans for tests. In every state and territory, they jumped ahead of politicians.


The results are undeniable: Australia and New Zealand have squashed the curve......These figures put the two countries closer to Taiwan and South Korea, which have controlled the virus’s spread for now, than to the United States and Europe — even places seen as success stories, like Germany.
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Re: Coronavirus and the nothing-happens attitude of AMLO, President of Mexico

Postby windsportinperu » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:49 pm

Another country is Czech Republic , they considered the use of Face Mask a Priority

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_WxtSavZR4

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