Coronavirus: We Should Follow Sweden’s Example

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Formidable 1
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Coronavirus: We Should Follow Sweden’s Example

Postby Formidable 1 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:52 am

Interesting.
The Swedes refuse to overreact to the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://spectator.org/coronavirus-we-sh ... s-example/


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Re: Coronavirus: We Should Follow Sweden’s Example

Postby gerard » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:34 am

This article was published on March 30th. I wonder if the author would take the same view now. As of today, Sweden sits 1 place below Peru in the list of total cases (Peru = 19250, Sweden = 16,755) but has ~4x as many deaths (Peru = 530, Sweden = 2021) with a population 1/3rd of Peru, and a much better healthcare system.

Sweden took the view that they wanted to reach herd immunity as fast as possible. Maybe in the long run that will turn out to be a good decision, but right now it doesn't look great from a purely medical point of view. But there's a long way to go yet.
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Re: Coronavirus: We Should Follow Sweden’s Example

Postby noclevername » Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:15 pm

I guess it depends on one's definition of "overreact to the COVID-19 pandemic." Is trying to save as many lives as possible overreacting? Is wanting to wait to see what actually happens in countries that are practicing herd immunity overreacting? Is it overreacting to want to wait to see (through scienticially sound evidence, not merely anecdotal) if people who contracted and were hospitalized for coronavirus are actually immune, or if there's the possiblity that herd immunity is pointless because there are cases of people contracting the virus a second time.

So far there's no proof as of yet that herd immunity is an effective strategy, unless one is looking for a higher than average mortality rate compared to countries that aren't using herd immunity as a strategy. If there's proof, I'd like to see mention of it from a reliable, independent source, like Johns Hopkins, for instance.

The U.K. tried herd immunity. Didn't work and they abandoned it. Too late it looks like. Even the Prime Minister contracted coronavirus. Not something that gives citizens confidence in their government's ability to handle coronavirus or anything else if they have to be concerned that the leadership is not protected.

There have been examples of people getting coronavirus, recovering, testing negative, and then testing postive again.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN2240HI

Sweden also has an entirely different system than Peru. Read that article from the OP and it was interesting to see a conservative publication talk up a country that practices Democratic Socialism. Sweden's system means that they have a far better health care system than Peru. Sweden has about the same amount of intensive care beds but with 1/3'rd the population. Sweden's Democratic Socialist system is already setup to get aid and benefits directly to it's citizens. I've read how the Swedes are very respectful of following their government's recommendations. I haven't seen that same respect here in Peru. Take a look at the level of respect for traffic laws and regulations as an example. If the strategy was to go for herd immunity I don't see Peruanas following the suggestion to continue practicing social distancing (as the Swedish govt. suggests). The two countries are just too different to make the case that what works in Sweden would work in Peru.

There's also cultural differences. I haven't heard on the radio or seen on the television any suggestions by experts or proof of desire of the citizens to follow a herd immunity strategy. Nobody wants to put grandma and grandpa at risk. Even in a country like the US where news reports are showing protests from a vocal minority of people wanting to practice herd immunity, a poll yesterday shows that 70 percent of respondents believe the country’s top priority should be to “try to slow the spread of coronavirus by keeping people home and social distancing, even if the economy is hurt in the short term.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/2 ... ork-203427

Last I read, Vizcarra has a 95%+ rating for how he's dealing with coronavirus. I don't see the political desire or desire among the people to switch to a herd immunity strategy.

Of course that's today. Who can say what the feeling will be in the future if this current path continues. But for now, it looks like people aren't willing to be the guinea pigs for herd immunity experiments that may not have the desired effect and might only kill more people faster while putting a strain on the already stressed health care system which would likely cause an increase in the number of non-coronavirus related deaths as well.

I'd prefer that Peru not be the cuy. Let Sweden be the guinea pig and Peru and other countries can learn from their experiment with the herd immunity strategy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lock ... weeks.html
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Re: Coronavirus: We Should Follow Sweden’s Example

Postby windsportinperu » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:43 pm

Good Analysis NoCleverName..

The only common point between Peru and Guinea Pig = Cuy Chactado
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Re: Coronavirus: We Should Follow Sweden’s Example

Postby noclevername » Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:48 pm

A defense of Sweden. Some sounds good, some not so much.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/2 ... ort-221193
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Re: Coronavirus: We Should Follow Sweden’s Example

Postby noclevername » Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:38 am

Conservative Americans see coronavirus hope in progressive Sweden

But Swedes are quick to note their hands-off coronavirus approach relies on a concept antithetical to American conservative philosophy: extreme trust in government.

“It is interesting to see that the Swedish stress on what we call ‘freedom under responsibility‘ is getting picked up by the libertarian right in the U.S.,” said Lars Trägårdh, a history professor at Ersta Sköndal Bräcke University College in Sweden. “The big problem with all of that is that Sweden is all built, ultimately, on a very strong alliance between the state and the individual.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/3 ... den-225184
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Re: Coronavirus: We Should Follow Sweden’s Example

Postby noclevername » Wed May 20, 2020 11:10 am

Current info on Sweden. Looks like their "light-touch restriction" didn't do anything to save their economy, but it may have caused more of their people to die unnecessarily - though experts say that's harder to assess at this time. A lot more deaths per capita than countries that locked down like Finland, but less than England which did lock down - albeit too late and only after they abandoned their 'herd immunity' strategy.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/2 ... uch-270611

“There are just no customers,” said Mike Singh, who runs a clothing stall. “Everyone’s staying at home.”

The calamitous outlook for Sweden is a result of its reliance on exports, especially to the struggling eurozone and United Kingdom, officials say.

Exports keep around a million and a half of Sweden’s population of 10 million in work, and the upside of keeping restaurants and hair salons open can’t compensate for the huge downside of production stops at big manufacturers from Södertälje-based Scania trucks and Gothenburg-based Volvo cars.

“The crisis has shown us once again how export-dependent we are,” Gothenburg Mayor Axel Josefson told POLITICO. “A recovery could take longer than people think.”

So Swedes have been free to shop, eat at restaurants, go to the movies and get their hair cut by professionals. But the reality is, many have chosen not to. Swedes have a high level of trust in their authorities, surveys show, and many have heeded Tegnell’s advice to restrict movement and stay apart.

Data from cellphone service providers shows people have stayed home to a much greater extent than normal, even during public holidays, and voluntarily abstained from nonessential activities — although mobility is higher than in other countries with strict lockdowns and walking journeys are now close to being back to where they were in January.

So despite the light-touch restrictions, Sweden's domestic economy has slowed, compounding the effect of collapsing exports.

Similarly, a study by researchers at the University of Copenhagen suggested consumer spending in Denmark and Sweden had fallen by similar amounts, despite the very different approaches by the two countries to lockdown.
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Re: Coronavirus: We Should Follow Sweden’s Example

Postby noclevername » Thu May 21, 2020 12:19 pm

More data showing that merely opening things up isn't the solution some are making it out to be. People are following their instincts and aren't going to be fully returning to their normal lives until they feel it's safe to do so.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/2 ... obs-273070

Some cold, hard numbers:

But the data still underscores how lifting stay-at-home restrictions alone will do little to bring jobs and spending back unless consumer confidence improves, bringing demand with it.

And in Georgia, public polling indicates that confidence has yet to return. Nearly two-thirds of Georgia residents in a recent Washington Post-Ipsos poll said they felt their state was lifting restrictions too quickly, and only 39 percent said they approved of Kemp’s handling of the outbreak.

“We’ve been chasing a bit of a false narrative that the economic hit is about the restrictions and not the disease itself,” said Julia Coronado, president and founder of Macropolicy Perspectives, an economic research consulting firm. “The economic story really isn’t about lockdowns, and we’re going to make mistakes by pursuing that narrative. It really is about the disease, and how fearful people are about getting sick, and how businesses are going to operate in a world where this virus is with us.”

But many economists dispute the idea that lifting restrictions will by itself mean a major boost to the labor market, in part because of evidence that layoffs accelerated in March separate from governors’ shutdown restrictions. A recent analysis by four University of California-Berkeley researchers found that the direct effect of stay-at-home orders accounted for only one-quarter of the jobless claims at the start of the crisis — suggesting that a majority of jobs that have been erased would have been lost even without statewide shutdowns.

A drop-off in consumer demand, disruptions to global supply chains and self-imposed social distancing measures all exacerbated the job losses and will likely continue to hinder the economic recovery after shutdown restrictions are removed.

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