¿Crisis política?

[windsportinperu]

Alan, but. . .

What are the reasons to think that Veronica will scale back or will change her mind ?

[windsportinperu]

Not to mention a second agricultural reform and a reform to the Constitution

Reforma Agraria was a chaos in Peru in the 70's under Juan Velasco Alvarado

[windsportinperu]

NoClever,

Why we should be afraid of Socialism in Latin America ?

Cuba , Venezuela and Argentina They all try that Recipe, we all know the results

Europe should not been considered in the Equation

[windsportinperu]

NoClever

I hope your level of Spanish is quite decent to understand this videos

They all are made by an Argentinian who is exposing day by day the Chaotic Situation in Argentina

I hope it will help you to fully understand what is happening over there

https://www.youtube.com/c/MateconMote/videos

[alan]

Alan, but. . .

What are the reasons to think that Veronica will scale back or will change her mind ?

There are two rounds to this game. In the first, the party needs to set itself apart from the mass of parties grouped in the center. In the second, the party needs to capture those same centrist voters who didn't see their candidate make it into the second round. Remember Humala and his hoja de ruta? Now, the other key question - and maybe that is what you are getting at windsport - is whether that party, once elected, decides to break their promise to the moderates.

It´s sure not going to be fun seeing the election unfold in the midst of a pandemic though.

[noclevername]

NoClever,

Why we should be afraid of Socialism in Latin America ?

Cuba , Venezuela and Argentina They all try that Recipe, we all know the results

Europe should not been considered in the Equation

I get that it's more logical to expect a S. American country to practice a form of Socialism similar to it's S. American neighbors, but why is it that European style Democratic Socialism should not be considered? Especially since it's a far different type of Socialism, and one that has proven to be far more stable and successful. Do you think Peru is simply incapable of doing so? Not a strong enough economy to support the tax base that would be needed?

[windsportinperu]

NoClever,

I recommend to see the video in the link above , about Argentina

Socialism in Latin AMerica is not even Close to Europe . .

The reason is because most of this Parties are part of the Foro de Sao Paulo

Thye are more like a Clan. . . You will never see to Veronica saying that Chavez was a Dictator or Maduro a criminal

They will never say a word condening to Maduro or condening to Christina Fernandez de Kichner and her robbery

[windsportinperu]

NoClever

I really hope you can understand the next information about Cristina in Argentina

https://youtu.be/y084PmSdTYI

[windsportinperu]

Alan,

Most of the Socialism or even extreme members of Socialism are part of the "Grupo de Sao Paulo"

Socialism in Latin America and their members are not really "free" to think freely

Veronica Mendoza and his Party Nuevo Peru is Part of this Group, too

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foro_de_S%C3%A3o_Paulo

P.S. And Chavez and Maduro are part of this Group, too

[windsportinperu]

Alan & NoClever,

The reason why Peru could tear down a Government as Merino, is because of the People who is not heavily ideologized

In Argentina is impossible to put in a Trial to Cristina , because they are split in left vs right wing

They are like a 2 tribes. People is not united, they are divided

Corruptions grows rapidly once a Country is heavily ideologized because they are backed up by their Party and People in the Party

Cristina is "intocable" what means someone who cannot be put in a Trial

This divisionism helps the Perpetuation of Corruption

[gerard]

she's kept out of the limelight and avoided scandal these past few years.

Isn't this one of the problems with Peruvian politicians? They disappear for 4 years between elections then pop up to tell us how good they'd be. I think Peruvian politics would be a lot better if the party leaders had to serve in congress if not elected as President so we got to see what they actually stood for between elections.

[windsportinperu]

Alan & NoClever,

Corruptions grows rapidly once a Country is heavily ideologized because they are backed up by their Party and People in the Party

I would like to say more words about this

Cristina cannot be put to trial , because their members of his Party will protect her , because they think that their Socialism is "untouchable" even though the evidence of Corruption is in front of their noses

They will never accept any accusation at all, even less if it is comming fron the "right wing"

In Argentina Corruption has grows more and more , but during Cristina and his husband (2 real mafia leaders) the robbery has been enormous

Toledo was put to trial for 20 millions dollars, Cristina should go for thousands and thousands of millions of dollars

[windsportinperu]

Alan and NoClever

The problem with Veronica Mendoza is that even though she looks like an honest person, she will never make an accusation to Maduro or Kirchner

They are like a Politican Mafia, if you say something wrong about me. then You are out of the "club"

I hope it is been fully understand

[noclevername]

I'm not at all suprised if Veronica won't say a bad word about Maduro or Christina. Politicians rarely find fault within their own parties, no matter the party. In my home country it's the right wing politicians who will never say a bad word about Trump out of fear of alienating his right wing base who will also never say a bad word about Trump.

“Politics is the entertainment branch of industry.” - Frank Zappa

"Politics is show business for ugly people." - several people

[noclevername]

she's kept out of the limelight and avoided scandal these past few years.

Isn't this one of the problems with Peruvian politicians? They disappear for 4 years between elections then pop up to tell us how good they'd be. I think Peruvian politics would be a lot better if the party leaders had to serve in congress if not elected as President so we got to see what they actually stood for between elections.

I like this idea.

[noclevername]

Alan & NoClever,

The reason why Peru could tear down a Government as Merino, is because of the People who is not heavily ideologized

....

Corruptions grows rapidly once a Country is heavily ideologized because they are backed up by their Party and People in the Party

If Corruption grows rapidly once a Country is heavily ideologized, and the people of Peru are not heavily ideologized, why is there so much corruption in Peru to the point where every living ex-President (excluding Vizcarra - for now?) and some candidates who never even won (Keiko) are all in jail, in exile, awaiting trial, or put a bullet in their head to avoid jail - all on corruption charges?

[windsportinperu]

NoClever

But USA is not Peru

It is an example on how things should not be done

In Peru Most Politicians inside of a Party could express its discomfort or disagreement . Some of the members of Merino didn't support to this Coup d'Etat

Once we begin to think that everyone should think the same way, Real Democracy will begin to deteriorate rapidly

[windsportinperu]

NoClever

Did you understand that the only and unique origin of Corruption is when a Country is heavily ideologized ?

Origin of Corruption does not have a single origin , it has multiple reason . . . but . .

Once a Country is heavily ideologized as Argentina, corruption is hard to be beaten

[noclevername]

NoClever

But USA is not Peru

It is an example on how things should not be done

In Peru Most Politicians inside of a Party could express its discomfort or disagreement . Some of the members of Merino didn't support to this Coup d'Etat

Once we begin to think that everyone should think the same way, Real Democracy will begin to deteriorate rapidly

My point wasn't that the USA is Peru, but that it's common for politicians of the same party and their hardcore followers to not hold their leaders responsible for anything and rarely, if ever, say a bad word about them. Veronica won't say anything bad about fellow socialists, Republicans in the US won't say anything bad about Trump or other autocratic leaders in the world for fear of pissing off Trump and his base.

[windsportinperu]

NoClever

In Argentina, Venezuela, Mexico Corruption is bigger and stronger than in Peru

But why Peru is making so much noise ?

It because the country is fighting back Corruption . It is simple to be understood

If you hide corruption, no news and nothing to talk about

[windsportinperu]

NoClever

My point is that Peru is not USA

And my point is that what you are considering as "normal" in USA should not be that way, because once people begin to think as robots with a unique way of thinking Democracy begin not to be a real one

[noclevername]

NoClever

Did you understand that the only and unique origin of Corruption is when a Country is heavily ideologized ?

Origin of Corruption does not have a single origin , it has multiple reason . . . but . .

Once a Country is heavily ideologized as Argentina, corruption is hard to be beaten

You're saying Peru is not heavily ideologized, but even without the heavy ideologization corruption is also hard to beat here. I don't the strength of ideologization is the common denominator when it comes to corruption. I think the common denominator is politicians and that corruption seems to be in their blood.

[windsportinperu]

I don't the strength of ideologization is the common denominator when it comes to corruption. I think the common denominator is politicians and that corruption seems to be in their blood.

It was never said that all Corruption comes only from one origin as Ideologization

As was said, Corruption comes from different origin, but once it it grown in a country as Argentina it is hard to be beaten

[noclevername]

NoClever

In Argentina, Venezuela, Mexico Corruption is bigger and stronger than in Peru

But why Peru is making so much noise ?

It because the country is fighting back Corruption . It is simple to be understood

If you hide corruption, no news and nothing to talk about

None of that refutes the facts that Peruvian ex-Presidents have a terrible record when it comes to corruption and having it land them in jail or dead of suicide at the worst, exile or legal hot water at the best. Corruption is corruption whether or people talk about it or not.

When it comes to your ranking of corruption, no offense, but you're splitting hairs. Venezuela is in a league of their own compared to the other three, but there's not all that much difference between Argentina, Peru, and Mexico.

The following information comes from this source:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruptio ... ions_Index

All four countries are perceived as "being more corrupt," all shades of red on the map, not green, so no real winners, though I guess Argentina, Peru, and Mexico are glad not to be as corrupt as Venezuela.

For reference, Denmark is ranked #1, the least corrupt nation in the world, with it's most recent corruption score being 87 (the higher the number, the less corrupt). Somalia at #179 is ranked as being the most corrupt nation with it's most recent corruption score being 9 (the lower the number, the more corrupt).

Argentina is ranked #66, with a corruption score of 45

Peru is ranked #101, with a corruption score of 36

Mexico is ranked #130, with a corruption score of 29

Venezuela is ranked #173, with a corruption score of 16

So Argentina, which you say is heavily ideologized, is actually perceived as being less corrupt than less ideologized Peru. (So much for ideologization being a reliable variable to judge the level of a country's corruption.) Mexico, which has a long history of having one dominant political party (though that's changed in the last decade or so) is more corrupt than both Peru and Argentina - though not by much. Not a big surprise that of the four Venezuela is the most corrupt.

Taking Venezuela out of the equation, I think it's pretty safe to say that Argentina, Peru, and Mexico are fairly equal when it comes to corruption. As far as rankings go, the three seem to be equidistant from the other two countries either above and below them on the scale. Peru is pretty much right in between Argentina and Mexico.

[windsportinperu]

NoClever,

The higher the Score the Lower Perception of Corruption

According to the data Peru in 2012 the score was 38 and in 2019 the score was 36

Anyone who is been living in Peru the last 2 decades knows well that Corruption is been decreasing , but the scores instead of increase has decrease from 38 to 36

How can you explain that the data do not match with reality ?

[windsportinperu]

So Argentina, which you say is heavily ideologized, is actually perceived as being less corrupt than less ideologized Peru. (So much for ideologization being a reliable variable to judge the level of a country's corruption.) Mexico, which has a long history of having one dominant political party (though that's changed in the last decade or so) is more corrupt than both Peru and Argentina - though not by much. Not a big surprise that of the four Venezuela is the most corrupt

I am somehow schocked what you understood has nothing to do with what I said

I didn't explain it well, it is my fault

If in a Country “Y” people from the Political Parties are dishonest and Corruption is high. We have 2 options:

a) Low Ideologization (More similar to Peru), Corruption tend to be Punished

b) High Ideologization (More similar to Argentina), Corruption tend to be protected and hidden

[noclevername]

So Argentina, which you say is heavily ideologized, is actually perceived as being less corrupt than less ideologized Peru. (So much for ideologization being a reliable variable to judge the level of a country's corruption.) Mexico, which has a long history of having one dominant political party (though that's changed in the last decade or so) is more corrupt than both Peru and Argentina - though not by much. Not a big surprise that of the four Venezuela is the most corrupt

I am somehow schocked what you understood has nothing to do with what I said

I didn't explain it well, it is my fault

If in a Country “Y” people from the Political Parties are dishonest and Corruption is high. We have 2 options:

a) Low Ideologization (More similar to Peru), Corruption tend to be Punished

b) High Ideologization (More similar to Argentina), Corruption tend to be protected and hidden

I understand your intention better now. Thanks for the clarification.

[alan]

NoClever,

Anyone who is been living in Peru the last 2 decades knows well that Corruption is been decreasing , but the scores instead of increase has decrease from 38 to 36

I am not so sure about that. Three things to consider: First, there is a LOT more money being spent by the State, since the country has more money, thanks in large part to the mining and agricultural boom. Second, a lot of this money gets spent by regional governments, where a lot of corruption still goes unreported, and third, back in the 90's (20 years ago), there was definitely a lot of corruption, but the argument goes that it was centralized with Montesinos, now it seems much more widespread.

[alan]

Alan,

Most of the Socialism or even extreme members of Socialism are part of the "Grupo de Sao Paulo"

Socialism in Latin America and their members are not really "free" to think freely

Veronica Mendoza and his Party Nuevo Peru is Part of this Group, too

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foro_de_S%C3%A3o_Paulo

P.S. And Chavez and Maduro are part of this Group, too

That's a good point, but remember, Humala was a part of this group too, and yet he was able to moderate his actions, scaling back on the promises he made in the first round.

Actually, Humala doesn't look so bad now, considering the trouble everyone else is in. That said, Peru deserves much better.

[noclevername]

NoClever,

The higher the Score the Lower Perception of Corruption

According to the data Peru in 2012 the score was 38 and in 2019 the score was 36

Anyone who is been living in Peru the last 2 decades knows well that Corruption is been decreasing , but the scores instead of increase has decrease from 38 to 36

How can you explain that the data do not match with reality ?

First off, how are you defining "reality?" I'm guessing you're not using objective methods and analysis, but instead judging that the level of corruption has actually been decreasing based on your subjective opinion and perhaps an understandble, but obvious, bias due to the fact you're Peruvian - national pride and the desire to see the situation as being better than it actually is. Since you haven't stated them, maybe instead you should explain the methods you've used to determine the level of corruption that you feel is a more accurate representation of the "reality" of the situation and why you feel that your methods are more accurate than the objective data I've posted from an internationally recognized organization who's entire purpose is the study of corruption throughout the world.

When you say "You will never see to Veronica saying that Chavez was a Dictator or Maduro a criminal. They will never say a word condening to Maduro or condening to Christina Fernandez de Kichner and her robbery," I can't help but notice a similarity to your choosing not to accept the more objective and data based reality presented above. As if we'll never see you say anything critical or condemning, such as studies from reputable sources objectively show that Peru is getting worse as far as corruption, not better.

I have no personal bias, no proverbial horse in the race. I'm just going by the objective data I found on transparency.org which I've been posting. The following is from their website:

Transparency International is a global movement working in over 100 countries to end the injustice of corruption.

We focus on issues with the greatest impact on people’s lives and hold the powerful to account for the common good. Through our advocacy, campaigning and research, we work to expose the systems and networks that enable corruption to thrive, demanding greater transparency and integrity in all areas of public life.

Our mission is to stop corruption and promote transparency, accountability and integrity at all levels and across all sectors of society.

To end corruption we must first understand it. That’s why we look at what causes corruption and what works against it.
At TI, we have pioneered tools and methodologies to measure corruption as a vital first step to exposing and ultimately reducing it.

Our research team conducts rigorous and independent assessments of corruption around the world. At the global level, we produce comparative data measuring the prevalence of corruption, citizens’ experiences and attitudes towards it. We also explore how corruption spreads across borders and in different sectors of the economy. At the national, local and even sector level we investigate the specific manifestation of corruption, its causes, its consequences and what works to reduce it.

Considering that every living (and probably some dead as well) ex-President has been charged with corruption, half of Congress is under investigation, almost all of the country seems fed up with Congress and the corruption situation, a very large number of the poplulation has participated in the recent protests (be it shooting fireworks at the police or banging on a pot from their balcony), and the fact that corruption has caused so much instability to both the Presidency and Congress, if Peru is less corrupt (as you state) then that's a very sad statement.

Here's how Peru's ranked for the last 21 years according to transparency.org. I didn't pick these numbers out of the air based on my own subjective opinion. When it comes to such a broad issue that extends from one corner of the country to the other I don't see how anyone who isn't an expert in the subject can possibly state to know the "reality" better than an organization such as transparency.org. I favor objective, non-biased, data based evidence (even if it's partially based on the subjective opinions of many subects) over the subjective opinion of one person, be it my own or someone elses. Regardless of the relatively minor changes in the rankings over the years, the data shows that Peru has a corruption problem which has been getting worse, not better. If you disagree with how and where Peru has been ranked over all of these years, it's not me you're disagreeing with. It's transparency.org. I didn't craft the message. I'm just delivering the message.

[windsportinperu]

I am not so sure about that. Three things to consider: First, there is a LOT more money being spent by the State, since the country has more money, thanks in large part to the mining and agricultural boom. Second, a lot of this money gets spent by regional governments, where a lot of corruption still goes unreported, and third, back in the 90's (20 years ago), there was definitely a lot of corruption, but the argument goes that it was centralized with Montesinos, now it seems much more widespread.

Alan, it makes sense in some of your points

We also has to consider that as the amount of investment in Regional Governments is been increased, also the amount of controls against Corruption has been increased as well

For example INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agraria ) has "Portal de Transparencia" . Once you clik on it, the websites takes you to another website as transparencia.gob.pe

https://www.gob.pe/inia . . .

Same thing for Gobierno Regional de Arequipa

https://www.regionarequipa.gob.pe/

[windsportinperu]

Alan . . . Part 2 :

Besides Transparencia , is Fiscalia Especializada en Delitos de Corrupción de Funcionarios

https://www.mpfn.gob.pe/fiscalias-anticorrupcion/

Besides this is Contraloria General de La República ; Juzgados Anti-Corrupción

If any Public Worker is filmed (video) or recorded (voice) by any citizen in Peru, could take those data to a TV News as Panorama, Cuarto Poder, etc

This makes corruption to be harder than in the past years

[windsportinperu]

That's a good point, but remember, Humala was a part of this group too, and yet he was able to moderate his actions, scaling back on the promises he made in the first round. . . .

it is correct, but who really knows what is into the mind of Veronica Mendoza ?

In my Perception, Veronica is more "rebel" and "confrontational" than Humala .

Besides this, Humala never talked about Reforma Agraria at all.

[windsportinperu]

NoClever,

Thanks for your time on making such a big response

Did you find their sources of information about Peru published by Transparency.org and their Mathematical Method to obtain those "scores" from 0 to 100 ?

It is not necessary to be an Enginner to know that for obtaining data (scores from 0 to 100) is needed that they have previoulsy made a thorough work by obtaining information from diferent media. This must be published in their website

P.S. Please, do not add (in your next response) some biased comments about me and my relationship with my Country

[alan]

Something that has to be taken into account when considering the impact of corruption is that all the controls that get put in place add to the expense of doing business with the government, and that gets passed on to the taxpayer. Also, due to the fear of corruption, the public sector is often obliged to accept the lowest possible bit from suppliers, and we all know that a cheaper up front cost can lead to more expenses down the road. Lo barato sale caro, as they say here. Honest, well-meaning public servants - which I know exist - can't use their discretion when choosing the best product for their ministry or municipality, they have to take the low-ball offer.

It will be interesting to see what Hernando de Soto has to contribute to the debate in this coming election. Corruption increases with every layer of bureacracy that gets added to a process, and he's a big fan of cutting away red tape. By the way, he's challenged Veronica to a debate on the merits of reforming the constitution. As far as I know, she hasn't said a peep.

Windsport, regarding the methodolgy used by Transparency International, they publish this on their website:

The Corruption Perceptions Index is a composite index, a combination of different international surveys and assessments of corruption, collected by a variety of reputable institutions. The index draws on 13 surveys from independent institutions specialising in governance and business climate analysis covering expert assessments and views of businesspeople. None of these surveys were commissioned by Transparency International.

https://www.transparency.org/en/press/e ... rceptions#

The World Bank also has an opinion on the subject. https://blogs.worldbank.org/latinameric ... evelopment

It's interesting. I found this citation on their website, too, which was published 7 years ago (2013):

Especially, it is the main problem facing the State and the one that hampers its development most. According to the survey, more than 50% of Peruvians believe that in 5 years corruption will worsen; and 82% believe that the efficiency of the government’s leadership in the fight against corruption is limited or null. That is the crude reality.

Personally, I think that the over 50% of Peruvians who thought corruption was getting worse were right on target. Whatever the case, it's probably not worth our time to start arguing over methodologies. We all seem to agree that corruption in Peru is a big problem that still needs to be addressed.

[windsportinperu]

Alan,

You are right when you say that in some cases (not all the cases) the Public worker could choose the cheapest option of all the offers, but he also has to consider that the cheapest one could not meet the requirements of the Public Tender. It is his obligation that his decision must meet the Requirements, too. That is why the final decision lies on the experience and expertise of the “Funcionario Publico”

[windsportinperu]

Alan,

I checked the link you provide, but it does not have any detailed information about how they get the scores (from 1 to 100) for 180 Countries in the World

“Transparency.org“ should be more informative about how their own work is done

This Organization is in charge of the determination of the degree of Corruption of each and every country in the World. It is a big work and should be done in the most transparent way

It looks like to be a Magic Box, they do not show the input data, they do not show their method to obtain the scores, but they just show the results in a simply way (Score from 1 to 100)

[gerard]

There's actually quite a lot of information if you dig into the web site.

https://images.transparencycdn.org/images/CPI_2016_TechnicalMethodologyNote_EN.pdf

And you can download the data set if you want to do your own analysis: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2019/results

This source description is a little out of data: https://images.transparencycdn.org/images/CPI_2016_SourceDescriptionDocument_EN.pdf, but that may just mean the sources have not changed since 2016.

[windsportinperu]

There's actually quite a lot of information if you dig into the web site.

https://images.transparencycdn.org/images/CPI_2016_TechnicalMethodologyNote_EN.pdf

And you can download the data set if you want to do your own analysis: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2019/results

This source description is a little out of data: https://images.transparencycdn.org/images/CPI_2016_SourceDescriptionDocument_EN.pdf, but that may just mean the sources have not changed since 2016.

Thanks for the Links Gerard